Viewing Month: May 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 01, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - May 01, 1953
View Text Version (OCR)

————————– Walston &Co. .. 7(M,jIJ.J1/nt 8aulu/teJ.- ………..MEMBERS-mWYORrc..-ST6(f-iEXiMA''E..;;i,EAO'tNG SlO AN COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw …landJ OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEi BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LETTER It appears probable that the market.has completed its intermediate term decline at last week's lows of 269.25 on the Dow-Jones industrials and ,101.02 on the rails. These levelS apprpximate my suggested buying areas of ,275-270 and 103-100. In the last two years, the industrial average has had twelve moves of mope than 5. Six have been on the upside and six on the downside. Their approximate scope and dates are .listed below ADVANCES LOW .. 223 242 241 255 255 263 DATE December, 1950 March, 1951 June, 1951 November, 1951 May, 1952 October, 1952 HIGH 257 264 277 276 281 295 February-D, AT1-E951 May, 1951 September, 1951 January, 1952 August, 1952 January, 1953 plus 44 plus 22 plus 36 plus 21 plus 26 plus 35 HIGH 257 . 264 277 276 281 295 DATE February, 1951 May, 1951 September, 1951 January, 1952 August, 1952 January, 1953 DECLINES LOW DATE 242 March, -r951 241 June, 1951 255 November, 1951 255 May, 1952 263 October, 1952 270 April, 1953 minus 13 m.inus 23 minus 22 minus 21 minus 18 minus 25 The rail average has had a similar series of swings although the scope and dates have been somewhat different than that of the industrials. It appears that the recent decline was just another of the series of con- soJidating swings of the past two years or more. During this period,individual issues have not followed the general market pattern. The cloSing price level on December 31, 1951 was approxi- mately 269. Fifteen months later, at last Friday's lows, the industrial ave-rage was about the same level. Individual issues on the same date showed E. quite different pattern. For example, in the same period of tim.e.z. Carrier Cororation advanced from 23 to 40, Seaboard Air Line from 70 to 100, South- error Railway from 51 to 84 and Clark Equipment.. from. 29 to 40. However, the '('act that the industrial average was approximately unchanged after fifteen moths was of little solace to the investor who bought on the last day of 19,1, such stocks as Commercial Solvents at 31 and-now 19, National DistilJers at 34 and now 19, Cerro de Pasco at 54 and now 28,,,Celanese at 52 and no'\' 28 or Abbott Laboratories at 59 and now 42. I expect this selective action to continue in 1953 with moves in both directions by both the averages and individual stocks. I do not expect 19,3 to be a bull or a bear year, but rather a combination of both with private bull and bear markets in individual securities. In my last two letters, I published a list of recommended issues for both investment and capital appreciation accountS. I believe these issues 'will show above average action and should e bought on weakness. Listed below are a number of issues that I believe will show below average action and should be sold on strength American Car & Fdry. American Cyanamid American Metal Atlantic Refining Beechnut Packing Bohn Allliinum Bullard Cities Service Cluett Peabody Continental Oil Corning Glass Deere & Co. Dow Chemical Firestone Tire Food Machinery Grumman Air. Goodrich Holly Sugar Lee Rubber Mathieson Chern. Mid-Cont.Petroleum Monsanto Chemical OwenS Corning Stand.Oil of Indiana Texas Co. United Carbon United Fruit U. S. & Foreign Sec. White Motor May 1, 1953 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. This memorandum is not to be construed as an offer Of olic;,ttion of offen to buy or silli lny SlIcunt,es From time to time Waldon & Co. or any pa.rtner thereof, may have an Interest in some or all of the securities mentioned herein The foregoing material has been prepared by us a5 a matter of information only It IS based upon informahon beheved reliable but not neceuarlly comDlete, is not guarClnteed as accurate or final, and is not Intended to foreclose independent Inquiry

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 08, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - May 08, 1953
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. J ) MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS AN6ELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,t,,d) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC. BY DIRECT PRIvATE WIRE SYSTEM UBELL'S MARKET LETTER In seven trading days, from April 23rd to May 5th, the market recovered a good portion of the declines from both the January bull market highs and also the March highs. This is illustrated in the table below January High. March High April Low Ma& High Dow-Jones IndustrialG 295.06 – 291.96 , 269,25 2 0.01 Dow-Jones Rails 113.94 112.87 101.02 105.12 This amounts to a reco'lery of roughly 40 and 47 in the industrials and 33 and 36 in the rails. The recovery has been rapid but still holds within the scope of a normal technical retracement. The short term techni.ca 1 indicator has become overbought and suggests a moderate decline. lilost constructive action would be a dip, on moderate volume, to approximately 275. This would build up a strong technical pattern and suggest, after some –further consolidation, an attempt to push through the heavy supply at 280 ..285. 'rhe outlook for some of th0 leading groups is outlined bAlow! AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS. This group has had a rather sharp decline from thA March higriS-because of truce possibilities and a possible cut-back in armaments. Would expect continued nervous action. Technically, the group does not appear too vulnerable, but would not expect much upward push. y favorite issue is North American Aviation. Issues that have a helicopter background such as United Aircraft and Bell also would appear to have growcn pOl3sibilities. Piasecki Helicopter, on the unlisted market ,presents exceJ.-' lent growth appeal. Our Research Dept .recently released a report on co;iipa,..;\'. AUTOMOBILES. Would not expect much price action in these issues over nel,r term. They do not appear too vulnerable, however. Chrysler has a stPOfl.3 support level around 77-75 and General Motors around 60. , AUTO.'IOBILE TRUCKS present a rather dull, unfavorable pattern. Woule 'avoid this group. 'rbere are better situations elsewhere. AUTOMOTrlE EQUIPMEIlT issues are in a favorable technical' position.,ey ar, close to support levels and have built fairly substantial potential bas9 'pa1;tecns. Favorable situations include Bendix, Briggs and Timken Detroit Axle. BUILDnG SUPPLY issues may be slow over the near term, but from a teehnica.l viewpoint-the intermediate term and long term potentials are veF pronising. A number of companies in this group are on my recommended list ,sueh as An!erican Radiator, American Seating, Crane Company, Eagle Picher, Na.tional Gypsum, Otis Elevator and U. S. Gypsum. CEMErff stocks have generally favorable patterns.They still indicate substantially higher levels over the longer term, and from a technical vj,ew pOint,the downside risk appears linited. Alpha Portland Cement appears the 'mont attractive on my work.Lone Star Cement and Penn-Dixie Cement also have Jn;0resting potentials. CHEMICAJ. There is no definite pattern in this group. Some issues appear moderately attractive, but others indicate lower levels.Purchases, in my opinion, should be conrined to Allied Chemical and Union Carbide during periods of gene;'al price weakness. DRUG. This group has declined sharply.Most issues appear to be at or neE,r their lows, but time may be needed to form base patterns. FARM MACHINERY This group appears headed for moderately lower levels. Allis Chalmers,partially in this group, appears to be an exception. FINANCE COMPANIES appear to be high enough at recent highs. Consolidation is needed. NATURAL GAS issues still have favorable patterns.Consolidation may be needed in some cases,but long term patterns are generally favorable. MACHINERY.There are several very interesting profit opportunities in thts group. Particularly like Blaw-Knox,Bucyrus Erie, Babcock & Wilcox and Joy Manufacturing. MINING & SffiLTING. Lower levels have been indicated for a long while. No change. MOVING PICTURES.I turned bullish on this group too soon, but they are now working out favorably. Continue to hold. . OILS. With the possible exception of special.situations like Anderson Prichard and Pacific Western, this group appears headed for lower price levels.There is overhead supply in most of these ,issues. Sellon strength. The remaining groups will be continued in the next market letter. May 8, 1953 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. This memorandum 15 not to be construed as an oHer or solu.tation of offers to buy or sell any SeCUrities From ',me to time Walston & Co, or any artner thereof, may have' an interest in some or all of the securities mentioned herein The foregOing molteno'll has been prepared by uS as a m!ltier of mformatwn only It.s bued upon ,nformation believed reliable but not necessarily comolete, 15 not 9Uol'ranleed as ..(curate or final, and IS not Intendl)d to foreclose Independent inquiry

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 15, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 15, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - May 15, 1953
View Text Version (OCR)

Walston &Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER lEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw,hed.,dJ OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEr) BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'SI-\\T V,y letter I stated that Most constructive action would be a dip, on moderate volume, to approximately 275. This would build up a strong technical pattern and suggest, after some further consolidation,an attempt to push through the heavy supply at 280-285. The market has con- solidated for the past few trading days and reached a low of 275.10. The favorable action of the rails encourages the thought hat the industrials may move ahead also and pass last week's high of 280.01. LONG TERM INVESTMENT. In accounts concerned mainly with income and longer term appreciation, I advise 100 invested position – Buying -Buying – Price Rane Price Rane General Rwy.Signal 33 33- 2 Abbott Laboratories 43 42- 0 Glidden 34 34-33 Allis Chalmers 54 53-50 Great North.pfd. 56 55-53 Alpha Port. Cement 49 49-48 Hall Printing 17 17-16 Amer. Chain & Cable 30 30-28 Hershey Chocolate 43 -43-42 American News 36 36-34 Hewitt Robins 28 28-26 American Radiator 14 14-13 Industrial Rayon 45 46-42 American Seating 19 20-18 Joy Mfg. 36 36-35 Amer. Tel & Tel 156 156-154 Lone Star Cement 33 32-30 Armstrong Cork 53 52-49 Louisville & Nash. 60 59-56 Babcock & Wilcox 38 38-36 Lowenstein 33 33-32 Bendix Aviation 61 58-55 Mont. Ward 62 63-60 Blaw-Knox 19 20-19 National Gypsum 22 22-20 Briggs Mfg. 37 38-36 N. Y. Air Brake 20 21-19 Bucyrus Erie 28 28-26 Otis Elevator 41 42-40 Burlington Mills 13 13-12 Owens Ill. Glass 78 77-75 Burroughs Add.Mach. 16 16 Parke Davis 37 40-37 California Packing 25 26-24 Penn Salt (p) 44 46-44 Chain Belt (p) 31 32-30 Pfizer (Chas.) 30 28-27 Chic.,Rock Island 72 70-68 Phillips Petroleum 58 58-55 Columbia Gas (p) 14 14-13 Pillsbury (p) 35 35-33 Consol.Natural Gas (p) 52 53-51 Shamrock Oil 39 39-37 Cornell Dubilier 24 24-22 Smith, A.O. 30 31-29 Corn Products 72 70-68 Sylvania Elec.P) 36 36-34 Crane Company 31 32-30 U. S. Gypsum 113 114-110 Eagle Picher 20 21-20 Vick Chemical 24 24-23 Elec. Auto Lite 47 50-47 Western Auto Supply 54 54-51 Elliott Company 239 30-28 Yale & Towne El Paso Natural Gas(P) 4 34-33 37 38-36 Flintkote 29 29-27 CAPITAL APPRECIATION. In risk accounts concerned mainly with capital appreciation over a six-month period, I advise a 75 invested position – Buying Buying Price Range Price Range Admiral (p) 27 26-25 Hercules Motors 19 19-18 Alleghany Corp. 5 5-4 Interchemical 24 24-22 Allegheny Ludlum 34 34-30 Int. Tel & Tel 17 17-16 Amer. Encaustic Tiling 7 7-6 Masonite 21 21-20 Baltimore & Ohio 25 25-24 Minn.St.P. & SSM 14 14-13 Beaunit Mills 19 20-18 Miss.Kan.Tex.pfd. 66 65-60 Bell & Howell (p) Canadian Brewing 20 20-19 National Distillers 19 18 18 New York Central 22 20-18 22-20 Celanese 28 27-26 N.Y.,Chic. &,t.L. 41 41-39 Certain-Teed 14 14-13 Northwest Airlines', 12 13-1 Chic.East Illinois Chic.Great Western 20 20-19 Pacific Mills 26 21 22-20 Paramount Pictures 27 26-25 27-25 Climax Molybdenum 40 39-37 Penn-Dixie Cement 37 36-34 Columbia Broad. 43 42-41 Pittston Company 26 27-25 Collins & Aikman Decca Records (p) Denver, Rio Grande 20 20-18 Raytheon 13 12 12-11 Serve1 11 81 80-75 Standard Packaging 14 13-12 12-10 14-13 Dome Mines 20 20-19 Universal Pictures 16 16-15 Eastern Airlines 25 25-24 Vanadium Corp. 40 40-38 Fansteel Metal. 32 32-30 Warner Bros. 16 17-16 Ferro Corp. 24 24-23 Warren Petroleum 37 35-33 Goodall Sanford 17 17-16 Western Airlines (p) 11 11-10 G MtfMttPanilirfs 1 1 –,J1.6 WesternnFrMa la&nedWII-Iton 2 2 -25SJ,-;;- may mhGavI;eu-II.Dw'.d,.ur1intllren , – WALSTON &,O.M2vynfol5honbaseoi som1!. 1!9J3 realriraobrlet.\Ueoarrlnlu1rot4fJfe,rr.leosirimseFntiolaniHefdonb1oer.feStns rThae foaurywgqoltrE9s'ieLlrlhT1tu'tQenatl ;hlas blT.ep(!tf.j….by orJ.1iUtIl!\ltH'S w & or any pdtt ,'Ii(. , uIsIlltetoc'0f'\U1NMU'ltkHt'UrJi'ilfotQ/n1rm5'hOI!t!)p.1MS'iTIl'TIwI yIS I,

Download PDF

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 29, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 29, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - May 29, 1953
View Text Version (OCR)

r, MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Swdaodl OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TAB ELL'S MARKET LETTER The Dow-J-ones iilaustrials were unable to penetrate the overhead re- ,oj ilta.;,ce and, in five successive days of decline, lost most of the gains Lrcm the April low of 269.25. The week's low was 270.65. The rails put in better performance and, at the week's low of 104.53, were more than three , point B above 'i;he April low of 101.02. , Tre marlet' s inability to move ahead is a bit discouraging, but the volume on t08 decline was small. The market picture has not changed. In- . di vl1\l!3.I iseues will continue to have their own individual bull and bear ma-r'ke-cs tnciependently of the general trend. A group that still appears to be in a downtrend is the oils. Readers of ttis letter are familiar with my reiterated advices since late 1951 to sell this rou1;l. Some of the declines have been substantial since that time a Hitr!,2'3 – 1951-19x Hi.b. Recent Low Decline Amerada 235 161 3l;b Clties 3ervice 120 1/2 -Jid-Co;-l'i;inent ecroleum 81 3/4 80 5/8 57 5/8 30 30 Sta.nc; . Oil of' Indiana S' t an-I. Oil of rr.J. 92 85 69 7/C 68 I 24 20/a!. .Some of the declines have already been of bear market proportions,but .'rom a technical viel-lpoint, many of the oil and petroleum issues still look 1 ower. 8,uotec below are a number of examples frol11 my Technical Analysis of' the Price Action of 400 Common Stocks. Approx. DOI1nside Upside Possible Possible Price Yield Poten. Poten. Advance Decline !V,Co1tinental Pete. 60 6.7 50-45 65-66 Stanc1.01l of rr. J. 71 6.0 67-58 72-75 25 18 The diocouraging part of the technical patterns of this group is that f.'1;e1' the declines occur, it may require considerable time to build up new base )2.tterns. This has often happened in the past. For example, Socony i.;ac;uum held for almost five years between 1945 and 1950 in an area bounded ',clUg'.-J;f by 14 and 20 in building up the base necessary for the rise to 40. 1\ l('!lg 'eaccumulation period may occur again after the stock reaches its low. t;'h,re i'3 also heavy overhead supply above the market in most oils so it 1Olld 8.ppear that any near term advance would be limited to 6 to 10 in r,0f't, cass. This does not necessarily mean that all oil stocks are going to -,)(1111. ,special 13ituations like Pacific lestern Oil could move higher on 0e\'clopnent in its new field. Other discovery situations both in Canada and be' could rie in price on news developments. However, it appears that the 1ol'gc) ojl companies still have unfavorable patterns and should either be .0Jd o stregth or switched into other situations with more favorable pros- )ec t;. 'or example, the two issues below appear to have better appreciation por.'3'bi.lities and defensive Qualities than the two issues listed above ,.pprox. Downside 'Jps.de Possible Possible tJ,;,dh Aviation -P-ric-e Yield 60 6.3 Poten. Poten. Advance Decline 55-52 80-90 50 13 Jobns r8,nville 63 6.6 63-59 85-100 59 7 Other possible slitches include Price Yield j\tlantic Refining CO'1clnental Oil (;J1 f on Ll;r.bla n…,-lL, 01'0 on -UJ.; IJt 1 Shell Oil )tand.Cil of Ind. 30ony Vacuum Sunr'ay Oil Texae Company Unicn on of Cal. 29 57 46 66 54 55 69 70 34 19 54 40 69 4.4 4.3 3.3 5.6 if, 5 4.4 3.5 5.8 6.2 5.4 5.0 IL'I'G lue Yl'US J 1I'1e -P-rzicre- Allis Chalmers 53 Vanadium 40 Great North.pfd. 55 Alpha Port.C. 48 Armstrong Cork 54 Louis & Nash. 61 Chic.Rock Island 74 Crane Company 31 Blaw Knox 20 Elec.Auto Lite 46 Babcock & Wil. 39 Yield 7.4- 7.5 6.0 7.3 6.3 5.7 7.4 5.4 7.3 6.3 6.5 5.1 EDMUND W. TABELL hay 29, 1953 WALSTON & CO. This book is not for general distribution, but is available for PQ'saJ at ymlr nearest Walston Office ThiS memor.. ndum IS not to be condrUCId as !In offer or solicihtion of oHers to buy or sell !Iny securIties. From time fo time W!Ilston & Co. or !Iny partner thereof, may have an mterut In some or III of the securities mentioned herein The foragomg matenoal has bllen prepared by us 4S a matter of Information only It I blsed upon information believed reliable but not necessarily complete, is nof guaranteed as accurate or final, lind IS nof intended to foreclose Independent inqUiry

Download PDF