Tabell’s Market Letter – July 07, 1978

Tabell’s Market Letter – July 07, 1978

Tabell's Market Letter - July 07, 1978 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - July 07, 1978 page 2
View Text Version (OCR)

— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEM8ER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE July 7,1978 – -last week's 'market-lettlrr;-the behaviOrOnhe 'stbck'ma-rket'Eis- it re-c6vewtro-m oversold condition can be instructive. The term oversold is used to describe the short-term behavior of the stock market, stating Simply that the market has been moving down with above-normal momentum and breadth. Identifing this condition is useful in two respects. First; it helps measure the short-term direction of the market, and; secondly, such measurements have implications for the longer-term direction, i.e., extreme oversold conditions possess bullish longer-range implications. In order to measure this short-term, overSold condition, we utilize a technique that cumulates the total of net difference of advances and declines on each of the previous 10 days, a procedure which tends to produce large negative values when the market has been down sharply. La-st Monday, June 26th, the total of declines over advances for 10 days was 4378. This figure by itself seems impreSSive, but is worthless for long-range historical comparisons. It is easy to put this basic figure into historical perspective by expressing it as a percentage of the total number of issues traded. This allows for the secular increase in the number of stocks listed on the NYSE. In this case, therefore, the percentage to total issues traded for the same 10 days is 23.1 – It is important to put this figure into proper context by noting the number of observations since May, 1940, the fall of France, in which the 10-day excess of declines over advances reached 20 or more of the total issues traded has occurred in excess of 500 times. (Listing of these dates available on request.) Obviously, this number or level by itself certainly does not suggest anything of a significant nature. igure-;-furthermore,is Lnotone-which . ha t–wi nt'hottom-s– '' The lowest point of the oversold condition at such bottoms has exceeded 30 of issues traded and in most cases it has managed to move above the 35 figure. This is illustrated on the chart on the back page which shows the DJIA since January, 1962, together with a 10-day total of daily advance minus declines expressed as a percentage of issues traded. DATE May 29, 1962 Aug. 29, 1966 May 26, 1970 Aug. 23, 1974 10-DAY A-D -5,013 -6,288 -6,259 -5,522 EXHIBIT 10-DAY A-D/ TOTAL ISSUES -038.7 -044.1 -039.3 -031. 8 DJIA 603.96 767.03 631. 16 686.80 DJIA IN 60 DAYS 616.00 796.82 723.99 624.92 DJIAIN 120 DAYS 626.21 847.88 768.00 726.92 The above exhibit shows the past four major bottoms in 1962, 1966, 1970 and 1974 together with the extent of the oversold condition and the behavior of the DJIA after the nadir of the oversold condition had been reached. This same behavior was true also at the important 1973 and 1975 intermediate-term bottoms. Another point which must be raised is that the present occasion represents only the third time in the -.past.12,months.thaCa comparable-oversold-condition .(20. O),has been.reached— the last one.belng-in -.–…;. January, 1978. As the chart on the back page shows, previous major bottoms have been characterized by multiple and separate occasions in which the 10-day advance/decline total dropped below the 20 figure. The conclusion of the above discussion is not meant to dictate an overly bearish position. In fact, the market's ability to begin todemonstrate a difference of opinion among investorlS by exhibiting wide swings in both directions is viewed as constructive. What the historical record would seem to us to suggest, therefore, is the continuation of such a sequence which appears to have started earlier this year. The recent short-term oversold condition does not signal an end to this process. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (7/6/78) 810. 12 94.53 716.74 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No slolement or expression of opinion or Clny other motter herem contOlned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or ,ndlrectly, on offer or the soliCitation of on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or menhoned The motter IS merely for the converlencc of the subSCriber While oNe belIeve the of our ,nforma- hon to be rei table, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any octlon to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own investigatIon and informatIon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporatIon, and liS offIcers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poslltons or trades In respect to any mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereaher expressed In thIS Of any other lSue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVIce TO Its Investment adVisory and other customers lndependently of any statements made m thiS or m any other Issue Further mformotlOn on any security mentIOned herein IS ovollable on request Air RATIO RATIO MMT Alrl OTC OTCI NYII AI, OTe a.DATI DJ!A INDIX DJIA COMPo OJIA IAiAOTH IRIADTH l.rADTH '8 197' 742.li III S I.I'S' 1II,a7 1.11'7 1,17 '.I! 7. MAR I 197. 74'.JI li'i71 1,1'51 111.a7 1.11.' 9'lfll 1111.11 , MAR 2 191' 14 4' 1.1.1. 1.1.4, LII,71 1.11 Iil' 1111.al Ille.I' MAA , 11 1a'.JI 1.11 111. 1.IJ1S 9jI1 1111.5' IIII.JI MAR 1.7' 74a. Iii.,. 1.11 111.14 .91.11 lell.'1 MAR 7 1.7. 7.1' 111.21 1.1'51 1 ,11 1.13', ',1' 1111 7 MAR I 1911 7'1.17 MAR 9 1.71 7SI.11 IIJ,'7 1.1'11 11 41 e.II.. 9'9,94 1111.18 1'11.1, ,i4.4' 1.1.59 112 , 1.1111 1101… 1111. 1111.'1 MAR II 197. 75 1.I.t. 111.41 1.li.1 lll.,14 1111.', 1111.12 MAA IS 1' '. MAR 14 1911 7.a.,. Iii ' 1.1.5' 113.11 1.12 1111.25 1111.1. 1111.1. 1.5.1T 1.1'49 I.' 1.19 Ilil.14 1112.13 1111. MAR IS 1971 I. MAR I. 19'1 1.a 5 ,MAR 11 1.1& 1.1.11 1' 1' 1.1 2 11'.'1 1.1. iel' , Illi.41 1111. li 7. 1.1' 114.11 e.II.. 1111.19 1111.1. li1.31 1.1.5. 114.94 1,IleS ill5.I, IBII.!1 21 1.1. ,13.12 1.13 115.3. 1.1381 il11.21 1113.14 1111.7J MAR '1 ,911 , a li7.S1 0.19 IIS.12 1.1111 IIIJ.II 1181. MAR 1.7. 7.,4 li7.3. 1.1'.1 leS,I' 1.1,.1 ill 11 111'.19 III i,MAR '5 51 121.11 1.1'91 115.19 1.13 ill!.', IIIJ.4, 1111.91 — I1AR.iI1I'7!l3.ill –IU.U – – MAR I.U 115.61 I.U', in un,74 IIln.2I MAA a9 1.71 1'1.7' lil.94 1.1. 1.'.11 1,IS9 1117.21 1111.9' Ile3.S. MAR JI 1'78 7'i 1.1.8. 1.1' 11'.11 1.1, ille. 1114.11 118J 7 MAR 31 ,978 1'7.J' fili9a 1.1712 1,11 1,1482 ill Ilia.,. 118 1' A'R J 1.7. 751.14 (i',41 0,1711 III. 1.1411 ill',14 1114.5' IIIJ 7 A'R 4 191. 75!.J1 118.', 0.1717 18',11 e.14 '181'.11 1114.14 IIIJ. A'R '1.7. ,, (i a, 1,1111 I,.' 1.141, '.11.12 IIIS.14 1114.41 A'R I'll 1'J.'S 111.8' 1.171J 111.47 1.141' Ili1,.. lei!.'. 1114. A'R 7 1911 7'9.1' A,R II 1.,' 773 5 (JI,al 1.171' ,III,i 1.14e. ill 41 IIB5.11 111'.11 112.a1 '.1711 118. 1.141J ill 18 111'.11 1111.2. APR II 1.,1 171.1' i'2.1' 1.1711 1II,a4 1.1418 1118.11 101 19 111'.1' A'R II 1.,1 7 29 (Ji.54 1.1711 118.17 1.14il 111 4. 1015.47 A'R IJ 1.71 115 IIJ.'8 e.11i4 11'.99 '.1419 lel1,II 111 el A'R 14 1971 795.1' 14. e.I.9' 111.'9 1.141e ili 89 1111,41 111 41 A'R 11 1911 111.12 IJ5.11 1.1.,. 111.'1 e,Il81 l1i4.41 1117.14 111'.5' APR II i971 813.21 114 , e.I.1. 111.4J 1.1'11 Ill 1 1117.51 III J. APR ,. 191. ., e4 1.1' 111.&a ,1.1'8. i0il.11 1117,'1 111'.10 APR II 1.11 114.54 APR II 1971 '12.11 IJ'.ll 1.11 IIi… 1.11.. 1114 1 1117.9, Ile7.1' 111.4, e.I' II'. ,ei119. lila… 1111.1' IIe7. A'R 24 1971 1 1& 11 44 1.1.51 111 e e.131' le.11 le' 44 II A'R II 1.,1 11'.59 APR -a. 197. 11'.'1 II…. 1.1'41 114.11 1.1111 iei1,II 1111 1 Illa.4. II, 1.I'lJ 114.11 1.1111 1111.11 111 7' 11'1,1' A'R 17 1'1' 11 91 IJS.I' e.I' 114,'9 I.IS.& 11i,.TS III'. II8a.1' A'R II 1911 137.11 11'.3. 1.1… 111.18 1.IJ1' iei 1119 7 111'.1' MAY MAY , ca I 1911 MAY , 197. I'MAY 4 1'7' MAY ! ,U4.n '.11 .,1 114,41 al e' 7.14 -I,IU',-1l5 …-I.UU117.1. a.I.J. 11'.11 1.11'1 ,11.07 e.I' 11 11 1.141. 111 81 il'.1' 1.1'8' 11 41 e.141J ill'4 13'.1' 1.1' 111 7 1,1414 III' 1111.1, 1111.'. 1111.1, 4.11, Ile9.41 II' 1111.1. MAY I 1911 .24.,8 141.14 1.1&91 111.14 1.1411 ili1. 11,'4 1111,'8 MAY 9 191. 11'.11 141.1. 1.1715 111.1' 1.1414 1111,11 1111.14 MAY II 11 .22.1& MAY II 1.7' ala.ae MAY 12 1.18 .41.11 141 1 0.1711 117.5' 1.14J' 1111.1. 1111.41 1111.'4 141.5. 1.1.91 11'.21 1.1418 ili 19 1111.87 1111.11 141.51 1,1'9' 119.41 0.1411 Ilil.J9 1111.11 IIII.!I MAY 15 1'7a 84'.7& 142 2 0.1 119,11 Ilil,11 1112.51 1111. MAY I, 197. 1'4.,1 14J,.1 e,I4 111.11 1,1414 Ilil 5 111 11 IIII.IS MAY 11 1911 851.31 MAY I. 1971 151.92 MAY 19 1.7. .4 85 4.11444.&7 1.1'.' 1.1' 1.1.14 121… 1.141' 0.1411 ilii.11 1113.11 1111.11 1111.'1 Ilt'. 144… 1.17'1 111.11 1.143. 1111.41 1113.JI 1112.15 MAY II 1911 15!.34 145.'S e.17'! 111.9' 1.14a. 1111.57 1111. MAY', 1.71 14s.a9 MAY 14 197. IJ1.'. MAY 15 1.71 ,IS.41 1'1 , 1.1411 Ilal.IJ 111'.71 1111 14'.9. 0.1711 119.11 1.1410 IIIJ.41 Illa 9 14J.91 1.1121 11'.11 1.1414 1111 4 III'. 1111.4, MAY I. 1971 8'1.,9 144.JI 1,173' 119. e.1441 (lit.11 111'.9' 1111. AY J.-1.7. 4.11 JMUAYN JJUUNNN II 197. I 1' Z 197. -I,-1- '1 84e.'1 11 .47. 1.1' – — – 144.1' 1144.4,..1a1 141 , 14…. 1.1731 1.112J lil1il 1.1111 1 . 1-' , . 11 11 1.14', '1,7.1' 1ll4,It 1111 1 1 i4 1.1411 l'ia.I' 1114.1, 1111 ' 111,14 1.14'1 11'1.11 1014.4. 1111.'1 1'1,1' 1.14 illl, 1114.11 IIIJ.3' 111-l1e1-11.1-441J- '-I,ile- l-l .-ITllns.I' U I' I. JJUUNN I I' ' a.I' '1'11 8.11 JU JU N N II IJ I'll 1.78 1.91 JU N 14 I'll .,…. JUN 15 1911 '84.a, &,JUN I. 1971 .11 JUN I. 1911 2 JUN II 1. 131.14 JUN '1 197. 114.9' JU JU N N II IJ 191. 1'1. .27.11 113.11 JUN I. 1.11 '11. JUN '7 I'll 117.'1 JUN 197' '19.'1 JUN 1.7. 811 4 JUN '1 I'll all. J 197 1 1'7. 1.7' 1 I.'ill 1.17JI 14'.1. '1.11 149.JI 1.114' ISI.4' 1.1. 151.7. 1.17 Ise.I' e.11'4 14'.57 1.1114 14 21 1.111' 14 11 1.117' 14'.1' 1.1111 147 7 1.17.. 145. 1.17'. 144,77 1.1111 14'.'1 '.17 141 ' ,1.177J 144.11 I.17.S 14',54 ,119' 1'4,'1 '1.17.8 la3.'9 114,41 114.i9 .,4 II….114.1' IIZ.9. 111.1. I.I J 111.'8 111.14 11'.54 11'.1' 119,S' 119. I'I,JI 1.1.1' 11',il 1.1411 1.14', 1.14'1 1… 1.1471 1.1411 1.14 1.1411 1.14tl 1.1411 1.14.1 1.141. '.1451 1.lall 1.11 1.1' 1.147. '.1.18 ilil.91 Ilii.4, 1111.1. lll 33 1111. 1111.51 1117,25 lliJ.4, i11J.11 1111.'1 illl.11 illl.l. (111,1, illl ' ilile 1111,., ill 10 I .' 111 4. 111 4 1111.1, 1111 1 1111.a. 1111.14 1111.1. 1117.11 IIIt,71 III',.J 1111.'1 1017 7 III , 1111.'7 1111.1' 1111.11 1111.1' 1114.14 1110.11 Illa.7S 1114.1' 1110.11 1115.11 1114.17 1114. 1114.41 111'.'4 1114.11 1114.18 IIIJ. III'. 1111. 1114.lt 1114.'1 1114.1.

Download PDF