Tabell’s Market Letter – August 17, 1984

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 August 17. 1984 . ' -' We d.ocumened.,–last week .some of-Ah-similaFities–.!Lejween ….rQ!lL .!m early August) 1984 and mld-August. 1982 pmnting out that these two experiences -were, apparently-;- uniqtH-iTr fi1arkerl1i- — tory. It may be of interest to explore the similarities a bit further, and we attempt this in the following table. The left-hand two ootumns show the actual history of the closing Dow from August 9 to September 21. 1982. togmherwith some selected dates thereafter. The fi!(ure shown, however. is adjusted to make it comparable to today by multiplying it by 1. 39, the ratio of the July 24, 1984 low of 1086.57 to the August 12. 1982 low of 776.92. The comparable 1984 dates are shown to the right, aligned on the days prior to the respective takeoff ralhes. August 16, and July 31, shown as day zero in the table. For each day on which a new high was scored the percentage advance from the initial low is shown. On other days we show the correction from the previous high. 198 2 ———————————— Day Date Ad .. DJIA l ADV l CaRR ————1—9–8–4——————– Date DJIA X ADV X CORR -5 AUG 9 1982 1091.37 JUL 24 1984 1086.57 -4 AUG 10 1982 1089.90 JUL 25 1984 1096.95 -3 AUG 11 1982 1086.98 JUL 26 1984 1107.66 -2 AUG 12 1982 1086.57 JUL 27 1984 1114.62 -1 AUG 13 1982 1102.14 o AUG 16 1982 1108.26 2.00 JUL 30 1984 1109.98 JUL 31 1984 1115.28 2.64 1 AUG 17 1982 1162.54 6.99 AUG 1 1984 1134.61 4.42 2 AUG 18 1982 1160.01 -0.22 AUG 2 1984 1166.08 7.32 3 AUG 19 1982 1172.79 7.94 AUG 3 1984 1202.08 10.63 4 AUG 20 1982 1215.76 11.89 AUG 6 1984 1202.96 10.71 5 AUG 23 1982 1246.36 14.71 AUG 7 1984 1204.62 10.86 – – 6 ' -AUU-24-r98222TIi(l()c-,…..,..—–41.-B8c33MJG&cl-98J\–11-94 .-1-1- – —'–;.–,-01 —J 7 AUG 25 1982 1237.57 8 AUG 26 1982 1248.09 9 AUG 27 1982 1235.59 10 AUG 30 1982 1249.33 11 AUG 31 1982 1260.54 12 SEP 1 1982 1251.78 14.87 14.98 16.01 -0.70 -1.00 -0.69 AUG 9 1984 AUG 10 1984 AUG 13 1984 AUG 14 1984 AUG 15 1984 AUG 16 1984 1224.49 1218.09 1220.08 1214.11 1198.98 1209.14 12.69 -0,52 -0.36 -0.85 -2.08 -1.25 13 SEP 2 1982 1271.85 17.05 AUG 17 1984 14 SEP 3 1982 1293.85 19.08 AUG 20 1984 15 SEP 7 1982 1278.68 -1.17 AUG 21 1984 16 SEP 8 1982 1280.73 -1.01 AUG 22 1984 17 SEP 9 1982 1276.23 -1.36 AUG 23 1984 18 SEP 10 1982 1268.24 -1.98 AUG 24 1984 19 SEP 13 1982 1284.84 -0.70 AUG 27 1984 20 SEP 14 1982 1290.89 -0.23 AUG 28 1984 21 SEP 15 1982 1301.31 19.76 AUG 29 1984 25 SEP 21 1982 1307.36 20.32 SEP 5 1984 32 SEP 30 1982 1253.46 -4.12 SEP 14 1984 36 OCT 6 1982 1320.61 21.54 SEP 20 1984 56 NOV 3 1982 1490.15 37.14 OCT 18 1984 Both advances started following periods of moderate firmness. In 1982, the Dow was up 2 on August 16, from a low two days before. In 1984 it was ahead 2.64 from five days previous. The percentage advances after three days in 1982 and two days this year were similar, at around 7. Likewise t the 12.64 advance to August 9 was not all that different from the 1982 advance to August 23,in a two- day shorter timespan. Recently, some divergence has occurred. In 1982 the rise continued with almost no interruption to a peak comparable, in today's terms, to 1293. By contrast, this week. we started a correction which has the Dow down 2 so far and has lasted for five days. It is interesting, however. to note the similarity between this correction and that of September 8-14, 1982. Since we regard the current rally as a secondary one within the bull-market framework, it should not turn out to be as strong as the first, and, in that context, this week's weakness was therefore not surprising. It will also be highly unlikely for the current advance to duplicate 1982 results and wind up at 1490 on October lB. It will be interesting, however. to see to what extent the 1982 record is approached. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p,m.) 1210.79 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 164.24 Cumulative Index (8/16/84) 1978.59 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No staternrmt or epresslon 01 opinion or any Other matter herein contained IS, or IS to bo deemed to be, dlreclly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an oller to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned Th'-J mailer IS presented merely forthe conenlence 01 the subScriber White we bellee the sources 01 our mformatlon to be reliable, we in no way represent or guarantee the accuracy theroot nor of the corpora/lOll and lis of/lcers statements made herem arernp/ayees, may now Any action to be taken have, or may tater take, by the subSCriber should be based on his own jnestlgatlon and mlo'malion Detafleld Harvey poSitions or trades in respeclto any Securities mentioned In thiS or any fUture Issue and such pToabsietlilonInmcyastJae dillerent flom any views now or heloafler epressed m thiS or any other Issue Delaflold Harvov, Tabell tnc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor may gle adlce to Its Inestmenl adlsory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any lIecurlty men\!oned herein Is available on reque1