Tabell’s Market Letter – September 17, 1982

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 17, 1982

Tabell's Market Letter - September 17, 1982
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE AOAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEy 08540 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, 'Ne MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE r– September 17, 1982 tu stock set HaugH Dow had advanced almost 20. The fonowing table shows all first, column shoWlng the low for the move, the second the Ahl,,;.. omvoevre saS.Ince izthe tlie '; high, and the third the high which was reached during the first 24 days of the rally. Th column showing the percentage rise on each rally clearly documents the fact that the recent rise is without parallel unless we refer back to the experience of the 1930's. —-D-a-t-e—- NOV 13 199 , DEC 26 1930 JUN 1931 OCT 5 1931 JAN 5 1932 II JUL 8 1932 MAR 31 1938 APR 8 1939 JUN 10 1940 APR 8 1942 OCT 9 1946 JUN 13 1949 SEP 14 1953 OCT 22 1957 JUN 6 1962 OCT 7 H66 MAY 26 1970 DEC 6 1974 FEB 8 1978 AUG 12 1982 Low ——- 196.69 161.18 121.70 86.48 71.24 41.22 98.95 11.44 111.84 92.92 163.1 161.60 255.49 419.79 535.76 744.32 631.16 577.60 742.12 776.92 PrevIous Hl5ih After HHlh ——- 4 Da'/s ——- 381.17 !63.46 94.07 173.04 194.36 156.93 156.93 109.70 116.79 85.88 A8.78 59.63 194.40 11.00 158.41 132.30 155.92 123.86 138.12 99.72 212.50 175.94 193.16 173.59 293.79 272.80 520.95 734.91 ;! 995d5 8160137 985.21 720.43 1051.70 658.79 1014.79 773.82 1024.05 930.46 Da'.1s UntIl r. 20r. 7- Advance Adv RecoverY —— — —– 32.60 6 35.49 7.36 49 8.92 28.95 18 48.49 26.85 4 32.96 20.55 9 32.14 44.66 15 38.71 2.28 14 23.10 8.94 126 29.38 10.75 74 27.27 7.32 134 15.04 7.86 0 25.96 7.42 118 37.99 6.78 137 45.20 5.86 193 24.31 1 0 39 105 27.96 1/; l . 25.21 14.06 35 17.13 4.27 113 11.63 19.76 24 62.13 There were, during that time, several rallies comparable to or greater than August of this year, and, it must be noted. seven of them, 8S shown by the asterisks, were bear-market rallies, Many of them were even steeper than the current one as indicated by the number of days required for a 20 advance to take place. In all post-war bull markets such a rise, of course. ultimately occurred. but it generally took a great deal longer than in the current instance. What differentiates the present case from the 1930's bear-market rallies is the fact that it has recovered 62 of the loss from the previous high. This is one factor which, in our view. invalidates the bear-market argument and reinforces our contention that a cycle bull market began on August 12. Date of Low A D JUS TED H I G H AFT E R 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Yers .- -, APR 28 IN 845.23 910.62 OCT 9 1946 837.98 849.84 JUN 13 1949 832.88 881.0 SEP 14 1953 813.47 861.34 OCT 22 1957 819.28 832.59 JUN 26 1962 855.97 893.28 OCT 7 1966 845.09 856.82 HAY26–r970- 886 81——936 -.09 – DEC 6 1974 857.09 1024.70 FEB 28 1978 810.11 898.62 963.96 1144.90 1219.23 1776.75 878.70 889.94 920.00 920.00 946.20 1097.98 165.04 141.45 914.79 1069.73 1468.45 1584.16 848.84 1011.17 154.98 1360.12 951.88 1054.18 1205.04 1443.09 915.07 984.39 998.58 1028.36 964.6-6-1170-.40 -1-195.55-1294 .58 1155.06 1186.11 1364.98 1364.98 942.33 950.31 950.31 107.07 If such is the case the above figures may be of interest. They show the adjusted highs reached by each of the previous 10 cycle bull markets for various time periods after their inception. The adjustment is accomplished by indexing the low to the August 12, 1982 low, thus giving a frame of reference as to how far the current market might rally if previous markets were approximated. It should be noted that, in almost all cases. the market had moved to a figure above comparable current levels within six months to a year following the low. Also. in most cases, the final figure for the bull market produced highly significant rises. well above what has been seen so far. No suggestion is intended that the current market will duplicate any of the past upswings, but the possible magnitude is at least of some interest. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 924.22 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 123.30 Cumulative Index (9116182) 1246.20 No .statemont or exprtj!Jlon of opinIon or any otner rnoHer herem wntomcd )5, or IS /0 be deemed to be, directly or InclJrcctly, on offer or Ihe sollCltahOn of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentIOned The mottcr IS presented merely for the Convenience of the subscnber While we believe thc sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe ot;uroc;y thereof nor of the stotements mude hercln Any oellon to be token by !hc subscriber should be bosed on hl own Invesllgollon cnd Information Janney Montgomery Seoll, Inc, as 0 corporation, and Its offIcers or employee, may now hove, or may loter loke, pos1t1on; or trodes In respect to ony SeCVrllles menhoned In It'1I5 or ony future Issue, and suth position mey be different from any views now Of hereafter expressed In thl or Clny other Issue Janney Montgomery StOll, Inc, which IS registered wllh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 lis Investment adVisory and at he. CU5tame ondependently of any statements made jn thlt lr In any other ISsue Further information on ony security menfloned herem IJ aVQllcble on (equel! —

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