Tabell’s Market Letter – May 14, 1982

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBEFI NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC. MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE Mav 14, 1982 -cvCle sfiiWlien;rr efYVivedanrliI)lF.if,1Rc!;i with the 23rd either having been completed in March of this year or, if not, likely to be completed sometime during 1982. For the benefit of stock market historians and statistics buffs, we are setting out below a table summarizing the relevant statistics for each of the 23 cycles in question. The table is based on average monthly figures. Each cycle, as we noted last week. is measured from low to low. The table makes the assumption, not now known to be true, that the current cycle ended in March. START HIGH LOW AS HIGH AS LOW TOTAL HaS HaS r. 7- 7- OF 7- OF DATE DJIA DATE DJIA DATE DJIA MaS ADV ADV ADV DEC PREV LOW PREV HIGH ——– ——- ——– ——– ——– ——- ——– ——— JUN 1896 30.22 APR 1899 54.90 JAN 1901 49.53 55 34 62 82 -10 0 0 JAN 1901 49.53 JUN 1901 56.53 NOV 1903 32.09 34 5 15 14 -43 164 103 NOV 1903 32.09 JAN 1906 72.32 NOV 1907 40.83 48 26 54 125 -44 65 128 NOV 1907 40.83 NOV 1909 71.95 OCT 1911 56.22 47 24 51 76 -22 127 99 OCT 1911 56.22 DEC 1912 64.50 MAR 1915 58.30 41 14 34 15 -10 138 90 MAR 1915 58.30 NOV 1916 107.89 DEC 1917 70.17 33 20 61 85 -35 104 167 DEC 1917 70.17 OCT 1919 113.91 AUG 1921 66.93 44 22 50 62 -41 120 106 AUG 1921 66.93 MAR 1923 103.87 JUL 1923 89.32 23 19 83 55 14 95 91 JUL 1923 89.32 SEP 1929 364.93 NOV 1929 232.60 76 74 97 309 -36 133 351 NOV 1929 232.60 APR 1930 288,j 7 JUL 1932 46.19 32 5 16 24 -84 260 79 JUL 1932 46.19 FEB 1934 107.26 SEP 1934 90.'54 26 19 73 132 -16 20 37 SEP 1934 90.54 MAR 1937 188.40 APR 1938 112.85 43 30 70 108 -40 196 176 APR 1938 112.85 NOV 1938 151.96 APR 1942 97.79 48 7 15 35 -36 125 81 APR 1942 97.79 JUN 1946 207.32 NOV 1946 168.94 55 50 91 112 -19 87 136 NOV 1946 168.94 JUN 1948 191.05 JUN 1949 165.59 UN-l..9.4..9–l.65 .5.9-.JAN -1 953 SS..4 4SE.l43 161 9.0 SEP 1953 261.90 JUL 1957 514.64 DEC 1957 436.92 31 19 51 43- 51 46 61 13 -13 S4—9c 90 97 -15 173 08 158 -92 1..,5..1.–c 178 DEC 1957 436.92 lEC 1961 728.44 JUN 1962 572.64 54 48 89 67 -21 167 142 JUN 1962 572.64 JAN 1966 985.93 OCT 1966 778.10 52 43 93 72 -21 131 135 OCT 1966 778.10 lEC 1968 968.39 MAY 1970 691.96 43 26 60 24 -29 136 98 HAY 1970 691.96 JAN 1973 1026.82 lEC 1974 596.50 55 32 58 48 -42 89 106 lEC 1974 596.50 SEP 1976 994.37 MAR 1978 756.14 39 21 54 67 -24 86 97 MAR 1978 756.14 APR 1981 1004.86 MAR 1982 812.33 48 37 77 33 -19 127 101 AVERAGE – JUNE 1896-MAR 1978 -AVERAGE – NOVEMBER 1946-MARCH 1978 AVERAGE OCTOBER 1966-MARCH 1978 45 29 61 77 -28 47 35 72 58 -22 46 26 57 47 -31 127 130 104 126 125 100 The table gives, for each cycle, the starting date, the high and the low. The next column shows the total length of the cycle in months. As can be seen. with the exception of the strange pattern of 1921-29. all cycles have been in the range of 31-55 months in length, and the average is just under four years. The next column shows the number of months spent in an advancing phase followed by the per- centage of total cycle months spent advancing. An analysis of these figures suggests that. in line with the secular uptrend which ran from 1942 to the mid-1960's, cycles during that period tended to spend unusually large numbes of months advancing and unusually large percentages of their life span in an upward phase. More recently. as the market has flattened. the tendency toward the cycle's spending about 60 of its life span moving upward has reemerged. The next two columns show the percentage advance and the percentage decline in each cycle. As can be seen, these figures have varied widely, reflecting somewhat higher volatility in the 1930's and before than seems to be the case today. The final two columns show startmg low as percentage of the previous low and cycle high as a percentage of theprevious high. It -can benoted that never during the century have there been more than two cycles that showed consecutively lower lows or lower highs. The recent cycle reversed just such a pattern, starting at 127 of the December, 1974 low. As we noted last week. the assumption of a March-1982 end for the present cycle makes it consistent with past history. Its 37 advancing months (77 of its total length) seems to revert toward the 1950-1960 pattern. However, if the S & P 500 were used to measure the cycle, the high would have been in November, 1980, thus fitting the pattern neatly within the context of the past three. The rather low 33 advance scored on this cycle is consistent with recent history, and the extremely small 19 decline to date probably reflects the small advance. Also, assuming that the ultimate low is close to that of March 1982, the present cycle will be the fourth consecutive instance where both the low and the high were not all that dIfferent from their counterpart figures of the previous cycle. The first cycle which reverses this pattern will strongly suggest that the period of stagnation which has prevailed in equity markets since the mid-1960's is fmally at an end. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) 859.97 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 118.35 Cumulative IndeX C5'lS/8Z) No ,tatement or i!xpreulon a opmlon or any other lUjS.S7 motter herem contomed 15, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Ind,redly, on a f f er or tCne so I Ic.lollon f on Ifer to buy or lell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscr,ber While we believe the sources of our mformotlon to be rel,oble, we m no way repreent or guorantee the accurocy thereof nor of the statements mude hefeln Any oc.on to be token by Ihe subSCriber houtd be based on hiS own mvestlgatlon and 'nformatlon Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporal lon, and ,Is offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke, POSitions or frodes In resped fa any sC(urotles mentioned In thiS or any future IUe, and such pOSlhon may be d,fferenl from any views now or hereafter eTpressed In thn or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regIstered With the SEC as an mvestment adVisor, may give adVICe 10 .ts mvestmenl odvisory and othel customers mdependently of any satemenls mode In Ih,s r on any olher ISsue Furlher ,nformahon on any security mentioned heretn IS available on request