Tabell’s Market Letter – March 05, 1982

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORk STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE – . w; ;-soe '-ti-s;iC-'last week the p'formana1'-gg2U',,'uii'V,,;rlU,dlu;re8Ii1;;';;';-iflin-tU;;he;SlBiidard—-I– and Poors 500. We have compared prices on September 25, when the S & P average itself reached a low of 112.77 and February 23, when it first penetrated that low at 111.51. It has, of course, moved some- what lower this week. The following table summarizes the performance of each of the component groups, including the average change (unweighted) for the stocks in the group. What is interesting is the excel- lent performance of a fair number of groups. Eliminating takeovers, many areas have demonstrated . 'superior relative strength. A number, such as Drugs, Foods, Soft Drinks, Food Chains, Department Stores, and Electric Utilities are classic defensive issues. In addition, finance-related issues have tended to perform well. We do not think this phenomenon is accidental or temporary. Individual groups that show' above-average relative strength on a downswing also tend to perform well on the next up-cycle. Some analysts have explained the above-average performance of defensive issues in terms of their low volatility. In our view, this explanation is only partially satisfactory, and we think there is a strong likelihood that many of these issues mav be leaders in the next bull market. STOC,S STOC,S AVERAGE STOC,S STOC,S AVERAGE ——G-R-O-U-P———————– Uf !oWN CHANGE .—— —— ——- GROUP ——————————— UP —— DOWN —— CHANGE ——- SUGAR REFINERS RESTAURANTS HOSPITAL SUPPLIES EN1ERTAINMENT ELECTRONICS-INSTRUMENTATION TOYS lEISURE TIME SOAPS 0' 00 ',0 1 37.1 COSMETICS 4 1 33.6 ELECTRICAL HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE 6 o a.; PUBLISHING (NEWSPAPERS) ') o 27.26 OFFICE & BUS. EQUIP. 3 1 5.89 TIRES! RUBBER 2 I n.08 AEROSPACE 4 1 3.06 0 TRANSPORTATION , ,-5 o 1;; ;,LLANEOUS 3 3 -0.67 2 -0.67 1 3 -0.80 5 7 -0.93 2 -1.40 4 4 -1. 79 7 13 -1.80 7 13 -2.91 3 5 -3.23 MULTI-lINE INSURANCE 5 o 17.01 CHtMICALS DRUGS 9 3 14.8 AIR TRANSPORT FOODS 18 3 14.64 CHEMICALS-MISC. SOFT I'RINhS FOOD CHAIN 4 1 12.04 GENEF'AL MERCHANDISE CHAINS 6 1 11.81 CONTAINER METAL &GLASS CONTAINER PAPER 11.68 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT RETAIL STORES DEPARTMENT 7 1 11.31 TELEPHONE (XCLIJ An) TEXTILE PRODUCTS 6 1 10.41 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT f'FOPERTY-CASUALITY INSURNCE 6 o 10.33 HOME FURNISHINGS ELECTRIC COMPANIES 20 10. MACHINERY INDUSTRIAL/SPECIALTY MOBILE HOMES HOTEL/MOTEL 3 V 10.17 COAL FITUMINOUS I 9.0 NATURAL GAS fIPELlNES POLLUTION CONTROL 3 8,99 AUTO fARTS-ORG. EQUIPMENT TEXTILE APPAREL MFRS. 3 3 8.80 BANh5(QUTSIDE NEW YOR CITY) RADIO BROADCASTERS 5 1 8,58 ROOFING &WALLBOARD PUBLISHING 5 8.3 SHOES LIFE INSURANCE BEVERAGES BREWERS 5 o 8.21 STEEL 2 7.50 OIL WELL EOUIPMENT AND SERVICE COMMUNICAllON EDUJ'/MFRS 2 2 7.09 OIL INTEGRATED INTERNATIONAL TRUCKERS BANKS(NEW YORK CI1Y) 1 6.61 HEATING g PLUMBING 4 5. 04 fHSONAL LOANS FINANCIAL MISCELLANEOUS 1 2 3.55 OIL CRU!,E PRODUCERS TOBACCO ELECTRONIC MAJOR COS, 1 3. 12 FOREST PRODUCTS 1 2 2,83 AUTO TRUC,S ! PARTS CONGLOMERATES AUTO PARTS-AFTER MAR,ET 5 3 2.27 AUTOMOBILE 1 1.81 MACHINERY CONSTRUCTlON-& MAT. H 400 INDUSTRIALS In 208 1.73 OIL INTEGRATE!' DOMESTIC STANDARD ! POORS 500 248 252 1.54 HOME BUILDHIG 40 UTlLlTlES 40 FINANCIAL 16 1.51 COMPUTER SERVICES 15 1.41 NATURAL GA!' DISTRIBUTORS ELECTRONICS (SEMICONDUCTORS/CaMP 2 J.38 FE,'; IUZERS BEVERAGES DISTllLEfS MACHINE HlOLS 1.28 AIR FREIGHT 3 !. 06 AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY RAILROADS RETAIL STORES(DRUG) 4 4 0.88 ALUMINUM 3 1 0.82 METALS MISCELLANEOUS OFFSHORE DRILLING 3 I 0.63 COf'PER CEMENT HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT COMPANIE 0.35 GOLD -0.3 SAVINGS & LOAN COMPANIES 2 1 3 2 2 2 o I 3 I 1 3 I 1 1 1 1 0 1 J 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -0 0 -3.52 -3.67 -3.80 3 -4.06 1 -4.31 4 -4.62 4 -4.63 -4.75 5 -5.26 3 -5,43 4 -5.61 5 -5.81 7 -6.16 4 -6.38 3 -6.78 7 -7.13 5 -7.63 5 -7.67 3 -9.12 1 -9.28 4 -9.75 7 -11.70 3 -11.83 4 -12.06 4 -12.20 8 -12.86 2 -13.00 4 -13.14 6 -14.0 4 -14.66 -17.32 4 -19.02 4 -19.77 4 -19.91 3 -25.60 3 -30.03 3 -31.01 Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 809.93 S& P composite (1200 p.m.) 110.01 Cumulative Index (3/4/82) 1043.62 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL ;N0os(tatseme\ntraobr resperceuSn51Y0n of opinion rcferred 10 or any or ment other Ioned matter herein The molter IS cporentaeninleedd IS, or IS to be merely for the deemed to be, convenlenc!) of dHedly or mdlredl , the subscnber Whlre on we offer or the soliCItatIOn of an offer belIeve the sourccs of our mforma bO dO h o e , we n no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements mude herem Any action to be token by the subscnber should be p!losn orlrde l/rslgln ond IflfOrotlon Janny M'hntgomery ;COII, Inc, as CI corporailon, and Its l)fflcers or employees, may now hOl/e, or may Jater tOKe, dIh n Ih Jpe a any securl les mef'llione m t IS or any uiure Issue, and such )OJllon may b dlfferenJ from any Ylews now or hereoftef e)lpressed m 1S or a y custorners In er 'dsuel 0rney epen ent yo any Montgomery Scott, Inc, statements made In thiS Which or In IS regIstered With the SEC as on ml/estment any other Issue Further Information on any adseVcIusfolrl may give odvlce to mentioned herein liS Inl/estment adVisory IS ol/ollob!e On request and other