Viewing Month: June 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 05, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 05, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - June 05, 1953
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— – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISwI.d..dl OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEG BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TAB ELL'S MARKET LETTER I I, During the past week, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average broke below the April low of 269.25 to reach 266.17 on Thursday. The rail average, at the weeks low of 101.70 managed to hold above its April low of 101.02. This action is discouraging in thesense that the potential base patt- ern in the industrials between 270 and 280 has been destroyed and it would appear that the base must be formed at a slightly lower level. At just what area the base will be formed is not yet clear. The whole area from 270 to 250 s a strong support zone. From 1951 to date, the market has had six advances and six declines of intermediate-term proportions. The present decline is another phase of the broad area of adjustment and consolidation that the market has been uncter- going for two years. During this process, many groups and issues have had declines of bear market proportions while other groups have advanced to new high territory. These alternate advances and declines, while probably aot yet completed, are slowly strengthening the general market pattern des- pite the fact that the various averages have had only a mild decline. Al- though a number of issues still have vulnerable technical patterns, the num- ber is much less than in 1951. A large number of the situations that were vulnerable at that time have already suffered severe declines and have eahed or are approaching their downside objectives. While the process may not yet be completed, the stock market has undergone a considerable correc- tion in individual issues, during the past two years despite the seemingly Small decline in the various averages. The adjustment has been in a piece- meal fashion and individual stocks have reached their lows at different times. In the 1951 to 1953 period, if all the stocks in the Dow-Jones Indus- trial Average reached their lows on the same day, the average would have reached a low of about 225 in comparison with the present price level of 268. . Severe declines have also occurred in the other two basic price areas of our economy. The commodity market has had a severe decline from the 1951 higns and the average price of 22 basic commodities has declined over 35 from the 1951 high and is now below the pre-Korean level. Bond prices have also dropped sharply from the 1951 highs. There is no certainty that these adjustments are completed, but certainly it would appear t,hat commodity priees and bond prices are much leas vulnerable at pr-esent levels than they were in 1951. Going back to the stock market, the general technical pattern appears to .lndicate.that we are not on the verge of a roaring bull market but neither are we near a bear market catacylism. In my 1953 forecast, I suggested that the range for 1953 would be roughly between 300 and 250 in the Dew-Jones Industrials. I thinkwe can safely extend this range for another six months to mid 1954. The series of alternate advances and declines will continue untll the entire stock market pattern has consolidated and adjusted to new conditions. There will, be bull markets in some individual issues and bear markets in others. Before 1953 is over many issues will reach new low terri- tory for the year but many others will reach new highs, My advice for the moment is forget about the averages and concentrate on individual issues. Every declining phase of the past two years has been an opportunity to aguire the stocks with favorable technical patterns at modest price concessions. Every advancing phase has been an opportunity to liquidate issues with un- favorable technical patterns on rallies. For example, Carrier Corporation, ilhieh has been in an uptrend since early 1952, has had successive moves of 21,;'7,25,36,34,39,37,44,40,44,40. On the other hand, Cerro de Pasco, which reaehed its upside objective in late 1951, has had successive moves of 58, 51,58,46,48,40,45,35,38,26,28,24. For immediate purchase, I favor the issues in my recommended list that are in the light blue chips category. They are the issues slightly below top quality that have advanced only moderately in price over the past two yeal's but have sizeable long term price all'reciation potent'ialities and are avaLlable at prices to yield 6 to 8. They have suffered only mild declines in the recent price correction. Regular readers of this letter are familiar with these issues. I suggest that others visit the hearest Walston office for my latest recommended list. ' EDMUND W, TABELL June 5, 1953 WALSTON & CO. ' This memor.. ,dum i not to be COnltrued /IS /In oHer or solICItation of offers to buy or sell any StlCUrltl(!S From time to time Waldon & Co, or ny prtner therllof, mollV havll an rntllret In !lome or III of the securitres mentioned herein The foregOing material ha!l been prepared by us I!I a mattllT of IOformalron only It 1 bened upon rnformaiFon believed reliable but not necessarrly comDlete, is not guardoteed as CCUIltc or finat, clod IS not mtended to forllcloe Independent Inqurry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 12, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 12, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - June 12, 1953
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Walston &Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,'wld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TAB ELL'S MARKET LETTER – – -,..- —– i Both the Dow-Jones Industrials and the rails broke to new lows for th IIr.nove during the past week. The industrials, at the weeks low of 260.89, had declined below the October 1952 low of 262.01 but were still above the Nov,, ember 1951 and May 1952 lows of 254.91 and254.70. The rail average at I the weeks low of 99.82 was still above the October, 1952 low of 6.7. The question of the week has been Are we in a bear market To the owners of stocks in textiles, ethical drugs, metals, distillers, Oils, Elugars, farm machinery, coal, carpets and other groups this is an easy questioTl to answer. These groups reached their highs anywhere from nine months to more than two years ago and have since suffered declines of bear market proportions. When the innumerable issues that have done little or nothing marketwise are added to the groups listed above, it would seem that it is a little late to talk about a bear market As I have suggested many times before, it would appear advisable to forget about the market and the averages and concentrate on the action of individual stocks. There have been individual bear markets and indivi- dual bull markets occurring simultaneously for over two years and I expect this action to continue for at least another year. During that period, I doubt if the averages move out of the 300-250 range. The only average that makes much sense today is the utility average The stocks in this average act much more as a unit than the industrials or rails. The utility average reached a high of 5414 in March and has declined to a low of 47.90 during the week. The weakness has been due al- most entirely to the major change in interest rates and the declines in income securities. From a technical point of view, it would appear that the- utilities are quite close to major support levels and should be bought on further weakness. In terms of the utility average, I would expect strong support in the 47-45 area. The downside potential of a number of utilities ape noted below. DOWNSIDE 1953 – -PRICE YlLD OBJECTIVE HIGH Carolina Power & Light (p) Central Illinois Light Columbus & Southern Ohio (p) 35 5.7 35-33 43 36 6.1 35-33 42 1/4 24 5.8 23-22 26 7/8 Commonwealth Edison 33 5.4 33-31 37 3/8 Consolidated Edison 36 6.1 35 40 5/8 Consolidated Gas of Baltimore 24 5.8 24-22 28 Dayton Power & Light 34 5.9 34-31 38 1/8 Houston Lightin, 23 4.3 22-21 26 1/4 Idaho Power (p 42 4.7 40-3 48 1/4 Lllinois Power Iowa-Illinois Gas & Electric 65.'4 36-3 27 41 3/4 31 7/8 Iowa Power & Light 23 6.1 23-20 26 5/8 Mtnnesota Power 35 6.3 35-32 40 1/4 Montana Power 27 5.9 27-24 32 1/4 Ohio Edison (p) 35 6.3 35 39 3/4 . mlahoma Gas 24 6.3 24-21 28 ; Pacific Gas & Electric 36 5.6 36-33 40 Pennsylvania Power & Light 31 6.5 31-29 35 7/8 Public Service of Colorado 27 52 27-25 33 Public Service of Indiana (p) 32 5.6 31-30 36 1/4 . Southern California Edjson (p) Texas Utilities P) 34 38 59 5.0 35-33 40-38 3497 35 8 Ut.ah Power & Ligh Vjrginia Electric 4 6.2 5.8 29-26 23-22 34 5/8 27 3/8 i Wisconsin Electric 25 5.6 24 29 3/8 These issues should be of interest to those investors concerned mainly with income return rather than capital appreciation. However, even a return over a period of time to the highs of early 1953 would be a worthwhile price move. June 12, 1953 (p) Prospectus available on request. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & COMPANY 1 I ) my memor''ldum IS not have an inter-O! In to'be 50'me construEd as an offer or or all -of – the feCl..lrlfie's ollcilahon mentioned of offers to herein The f buy or slIlI any oregoing mater sIiei IcuhralshesbeenFropmreptlilmree.dtobyhmulsl Wahton & Co, a5 I matter -of olrnfanHymatplaorntnoenr tyh-e-rHeo.fs, ' based upon Information believed rehable but not necessarily tomolete, IS not gUIHanfeed as iltcurate or fmal, ilnd IS not,. Intended to foretlose Independent inquiry d

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 19, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 19, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - June 19, 1953
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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,t,ld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTED BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM UBELL'S MARKET LETTER June 19, 1953 The lows of the past week, 260.75 on the Dow-Jones Industrials and '99.06 on the rails reached on Tuesday, were approximately the same as those of the previous week when 260.89 and 99.22 were the intra-day lows. 'This, in effect, creates a minor double bottom. To strengthen this pos- sibility is the fact that the breadth of the market data has turned more faorable. On June 9h, the volume totalled 2,200,000 shares and there were 1,006 declines and 470 new lows. On last Tuesdays drop, the volume was only 1,370,000 shares with 577 declines and 253 new lows. Thus it wO'.lld appear that liquidating pressure is waning. The drop to 890,000 shares traded on Friday indicates that the market is at least temporarily oversold. Stocks that turn in a good market performance during declining phases of the market are usually the first to recover when the trend is reversed. The Dow-Jones Industrials reached a low of 269.25 late in April. This was followed by a decline to 260.75 last week. Yet despite this 8.50 decline there were over 300 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange that suc- ceeded in holding above their April lows or lows reached ealier in the year. It might be interesting to see what some of these stocks are . First, there were 29 issues in my recommended list that followed this faorable pattern. There were a great many others that reached new lows by only a small fraction but these were the ones that actually held above .previous lows. LONG TERM INVESTMENT Alpha Portland Cement American News 'Armstrong Cork Babcock & Wilcox Bucyrus Erie Burlington Mills Chain Belt Chicago, Rock Island Cornell Dubilier 47 33 54 38 26 12-) 31 171 21 Corn Products Refining Great Northern, Pfd. Hall Printing Hewitt Robins Louisville & Nashville Lowenstein Shamrock Oil Vick Chemical 69 54 17 26 64 33 39 25 CAPITAL APPRECIATION Beaunit Mills 19 Greer Hydraullcs Bell & Howell 20 Interchemical Canadian Brewing 19 Minn,St.Paul & SSM Columbia Broad. A 42 New York Central Denver, Rio Grande Fansteel 78 28 Penn Dixie Cement Standard Packaging () – Listed on the American Stock Exchange 17 23 13 23 33 14 These issues should continue to show above average action when the advance is resumed. Possibly the most favorable group action was in the tobacco products goup. Of fifteen issues charted, ten held above previous lows. Food stocks also held very well. There are many sub-classifications in this group in'cluding soft drinks and confectionary, but of a total of 54 issues, 26 held 'above previous lows and the downside penetrations on the many of the remaining issues was only fractional. Excellent action was also shown by retail store groups – both department stores and food chains. 9 out of 16 ,department store stocks held as did 7 out of 9 food chains. Other favorable groups were brewing issues, can stocks, cement, shoes,telephone & telegraph., Most of the above groups are defensive in nature. However, some of the more dynamic groups also kept their trend intact. This is true of a number 'of rail issues. The following are among those that held above previous lows ,in addition to those in my recommended list above.- Central of Georgia, 'Chicago & Northwest, Lackawana, Gulf Mobile & OhiO, Illinois Central, Min- .neapolis & St. Louis, Northern Pacific, Reading, Frisco and Southern Railwy. Other favorable groups include floor coverings, glass, machinery, metal products, printing & publishing and motion pictures. Also some sugars1 'metals and textiles appear oversold. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & COMPANY Thl memorAndum IS not to be construed as an offer or solicittion of offers to buy or sell ony sec UTI ties From time to lime Wahlon & Co , or any partner thereof, m,IY have an Intor!!st In some or all -of tile securities mentioned lIereln The foregOing material lIa5 been prepared by us as II mattor of information only It is based upon information beheved rehable but not necessarily complete, IS not guaranteed as accurate or final, and is not Int&nded to foreclose independent InqUiry

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 26, 1953

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 26, 1953

Tabell's Market Letter - June 26, 1953
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Walston &Uo. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO ISw;,I.,d) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM 1'ABELL'S MARKET LETTER – . ……- June 26, 1953 The stock market during the past week continued its advance from the June lows. At the week's high of 270.31, the Dow Jones Industrials had regained approximately 28 of the decline from the January high of 295.06 to the recent June low of 260.75. The rail average, at 106.32, showed a better recovery with a retracement of roughly 46 of the decline from 113.94 to 99.06. A normal technical recovery in an intermediate trend can r'etrace from one third to two thirds of the previous move without changing the trend. In the present situation, the indllstrials could recover to the 27)-283 level and the rails to the 104-109 area without changing the down'crend that has been in effect since January. Market action, as far as the aVE'rages are concerned, should be watched closely over the coming ,weeks. On the industrial average, there is moderate upside resistance, at the 275 -2EiO area and very heavy supply at 280 to 290. There is heavy supply in thE' rails in the 108-113 range. These areas more or less coincide with the onE'-third to two-thirds retracement objectives. These areas must be penebra.ted before the long term advance can be resumed. Whether they can be penetrated in the near future Qr' whether a longer perlod of consolidation is needed is, of course, problematical. ,When the price action of individual stocks and groups is observed, the pattern is quite different from that of the various averages. While the averages reached their highs less than six months ago, many groups have been in downtrends for over two years. For example, the steels reached their highs early in 1951 as did the sugars,railway equipments and auto trucks. Other groups like the textiles and farm machinery issues topped out in late 1951. The oils and metals reached their'highs in early 1952. Some of these groups have declined to long term support levels and have most likely reached their lows. Others appear to need further adjustment. This selective action of the past two years more or less coincides 'with the attitude adopted by this letter. I have been more or less cautious since 1951. My technical work at that time indicated that a great many issues had vulnerable patterns. One by one, and at various times, many of these patterns have worked out and the issues have reached or are close to downside objectives. Others still have further to go. That is why, in my Forecast for 1953, I expected the consolidating and re-adjustment phase that started overtwo years ago to continue into 1953 with a price range between 300 and 250. (for 1953 to date the range has been 295 and 260). I expect this action to continue into mid-1954 with some groups moving moderately – higher and others moderately lower. As noted in last weeks letter, this selective action continued during the June decline. Despite the fact that the averages broke ten pOints below the April low, over three hundred individual isslles held above their earlier 1953 lows. These issues mainly are the tobacco, food, soft drink, retail stores, food chains, cement, shoes, communications etc. Most of these groups are defenSive in nature but other issues tin the ratl, machin- ery, aluminum, glass and motion picture groups also held above previous lows. On the unfavorable side only fourteen out of fifty oils held above pre,ious lows. Most of the issues that held were spec1.al situations. UnfalOrable action was shown also by the t1.re and rubber stocks. Only one out of nine issues charted held above previous lows. EDMUND W0 TABELL WALSTON & COMPANY ThIS emorandum is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of offers to buy or sell any securities From time to time Walston & Co, or any partner thereo!, , may have an Interest In some or all of the lecuflties mentioned herem The foregOing matenal has been prepared by s as matter of Inf)Tmatlon only It IS based upon information believed reliable but not necenarily complete, h not gu.!!ranteed as accur.!!te or fin.!!l, and Is not Intended to foreclose mdependent InqUlTy I \ 1-

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