Tabell’s Market Letter – November 28, 1952
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,-, '- – –, , Wolston.1Joffnl0n &Goodwin' , /, ,-, r' . NEW YORK 5, N, Y PHILADELPHIA 2, PA LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF ,''t.'', 35 Wall Street '. DIGBY 44141 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-S'77 , TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 550 South Spring Street MADISON 9 3232 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 127(1(1 ' In the last two years, the Dow-Jones industrial average has had , 'eleven moves of more than 5. Six have been on the upside and five have , been on the downside. Their approximate scope and dates are listed below , , ADVANCES Low Date High Date 223 Dec.1950 257 Feb.1951 plus 44 242 March,1951 264 May, 1951 plus 22 241 June, 1951 277 Sept.1951 plus 36 255 Nov. 1951 276 Jan. 1952 plus 21 255 May, 1952 281 Aug. 1952 plus 26 263 Oct. 1952 283 Nov.1952 plus 20 DECLINES High Date Low Date ;, 257 Feb.1951 242 264 May, 1951 241 March,1951 minus 13 June, 1951 minus 23 277 Sept. 1951 255 Nov. 1951 minus 22 276 Jan. 1952 255 May, 1952 minus 21 281 Aug. 1952 263 Oct. 1952 minus 18 , ;; hfr. ,j' ,,', 1 ,!-, I ,.,i..' '-''- ,;'J fJ ;it,'!!,k 7 ''.', 'f. ')' II,' )1(;,' ,,'!r , ! i ''0'' '/1 I -I,!J!, ' ',-… ',', , 0; , …. To Date. '- ,' , The rail average has had a similar series of swings although the scope , and dates have been somewhat different than that of the industrials ',' However, the action of individual issues has been quite different ';'-, ' from that of the averages. The steels, for example, re8ched their highs in ' February, 1951 when the average was only 254. The chemicals and textiles 7' , reached their highs in September, 1951 and the oils and metals in January, ' ,1952. Numerous other examples could be cited. Despite the fact that the ;; ,' avera!;es are at a new high, the groups mentioned above are still below''' theL previous highs. The leaders of the present rise to new high territory;', are different groups, such as televisions, utili ties, electrical equipment /- foods, etc. ' I expect this selective action to cor;tinue with price swings in both ;, ;',the averages and in individual issues comparable to what we have witnessed ,- , over the past two years. However, it will be noted flOOLl the table above ;,' 'that the present advance could carry somewhat further in order to reach the;, 'average time and price amplitude of the five previous advances. This is -'about in line with the technical pattern. My intermediate term technical, , indicator has reached overbought territory, but the pattern suggests that ,-' some time may be needed to build up a top and give an actual sell signal. ;' During this time, individual issues could advance, but increasing caution is indicated on new purchases. The larger part of the current rise may al- ,) 'ready have been witnessed. LONG TERM INVESTMENT I continue to advise a 100 invested position ,; 'in accounts concerned mainly with income and longer-term appreciation.Hold- , ings of sound, good quality, dividend paying issues should be retained, par;, ',ticularly when bought at considerably lower price l,','cls. The longer term f– , trend indicates ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues ShOUld!;, ' continue dividend payments at approximately present rates. c';' Present pOSitions should be held but would wait for weakness to pur- ,,,,' , chase issues in our recommended list that have advanced sharply above the ,' buying levels suggested in my letter of November 7th. CAPITAL APPRECIATION During the October decline to 262.01 in the Dow1'', Jones industrials and 96,87 in the rails, I advised increasing invested r' ,positions in risk accounts concerned mainly with capital appreciation over', a six months pericJd from 25-50 to 60. Would maintain this ratiO, leaving' 40 liquid until lrther notice. J,' For accounts that still have buying,power above 40 of funds, suggest,; the purchase of issues in my list of November 7th that have not advanced to',' .t.;',,'rapidly from levels prevailing on that date. ELLIOTT COMPANY. (29) is a case in point. It is near an upside breakout of a long potentlal accumulatl f', EDMUND W. TABELL NOhd' 1''I'd lkit,HD b'''''' 'Hm'DIHffm' GDDd; jDI ' Dff D' Df Dff. ID mo, have an interest In 10m. or all of the securities mentioned herein The foreQoing materLlIl hIlS been prepued by us at a matter of information only It IS bated upon Information b.n…..d reliable but not necuumly complete, 15 not ;uarantud as accurate or final, and is not Intended to foreclose independent InqUiry t , .. — -, il !i 1 ,1 I I i I I 1 1 I i I, ;1 1 !