Tabell’s Market Letter – December 21, 1951
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— f—,,–,,'t;''T,'-'(i'I;, . ,- Wulston.I-Ioffl1ton &- Goodwin \,''–';17fi''-;–t,,;;r;,T-V' J(,.i1, NEW YORK 5, N, Y ; ',/. 3S WJ) Street DIGBY 1.4141 P/'4/uU!-n okcrMM PHiLADELPHIA 2, PA '420 WInut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF, SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 550 5MOIhSO5r21freef 265 ;fJStreet tf i;. ;,';1., ,,'1, f'I!-.I !,.;'; '! t;', ;',; TABELL-'S MARKET LETTER ;; i,,' 7,i If'/! ,. . hif The Dow-Jones industrials lui, attempts to penetrate the Decembei;1; 1,)7th high of 268.95 but failed by a small amount at Wednesday I s high of 268. 9 i;and Thursday I s intra-day peak of 268.91. The rail average missed a new Decem';' i,,!/ber high by a wider amount at 83.09 as compared with early December high of,i;; 1'84.94. However, if the traditional pattern is followed, the market should r.' .turn stronger between Christmas and New Year I s and strength should carry 12';, N,hrough into at least the early part of January. i– t,;\ The industrials have held for thirteen trading day! in a narrow tra-;'..3 ',ding shelf between a low of 264.33 and a high of 268.95. The market should ;,;; tbreak out of this range in the next few days. It would appear that the odds 01 ffavor an upside penetration. However, just how far such an advance can . i,carry is highly problematical. The market is faced with the task of absorb-,. Ling a heavy overhead supply of stock between 270 and 277. Approximately 65 Y' ; million shares were traded in this area at the 35-day September-October top !i'crt would be unusual technical action if this overhead resistance did not at' '; I,',jleast temporarily halt any advancing tendencies. Inability to move above 27q, t.by mid-January would be a very discouraging technical indication. It would '–' ,presumably mean that the rally from the November low of 254.91 was just a 0 r-;f,'pormal technical retracement of the first phase of a longer term downtrend ., In my opinion, the industrials will break out on the upside of the '; ''recent trading range and attempt a push through the 270-277 resistance area.; )r,,,-'1,mdaorkent omt obset l ieve that likely wi th ll e ha a v ttempt will e expended s b o e suc much cessful energy . t Eve hat n a if ny it is, upside the pene- ;l .,I – ),ii'tration will be relatively minor. I would be inclined to take profits on a';' 1Zportion of longer term holdings in the 270-277 area. ;\; t, Below are brief analyses of three issues. Two, Armstrong Cork and fi I.rCarrier, are already part of my recommended list. Ruppert is a new ac'(ition;,J li,to the speculative group. These issues should only be purchased if long terl\l' t ;(capital appreciation accounts are below 50 invested. Still would retain I(,.'a 50 buying reserve. ;/ ARMSTRONG CORK (55) The company manufactures materials for the build;;.; i.,,ing trades and for industry. Its products include linoleum, asphalt tile, ;'; 1,'cork insulation glass, containers, and numerous specialties. Its well diver;'!'; !;sified procuct lines include over three hundred items and are also sold to ', ;;many diversified industries. The stock is a better quality issue and has ,;,i i,;'paid a dividend in fifty-four of the past fifty-six years. At present leve;j;' ,around 54, the stock yields approximately 5.8. Present levels compare with';, f,a high of 64 3/4 in 1946 and a 1947 low of 38 1/4. Earnings for 1951 are ;-;1 '''estimated at 5.60 as against 8.13 in 1950. Sales in 1951 are estimated at;, ij;;' 205 million as against 186.5 million in 1950 and are four times greater fthan in 1939. The stock has a very interesting long term technical pattern .;' y7At the August high of 59, the stock had reached its first objective of 57-6f5;\ icHowever, the long term objective is much higher. The stock has a good de- ;',-,' ;', fensive pattern also. There is good support in the 50-45 area. ,,,' ; CARRIER CORP. (23 1/4) manufacturers of air-conditioning and refrige' ;,','ration equipment, had a record net profit equal to 3.88 a share for 'the ,', ,j; fiscal year ended on October 31st. This compares with 3.40 a share for the ,;!, \ (1' 1950 fiscal year. Sales also reached a new high at 80.9 million as against ' i;62.3 million in the previous year. This stock has been on my recommended .) -i- list for a ;long time. It was originally recommended around 12. The pattern ,'7 ;(,i is still extremely favorable. The long term pattern suggests a price object'7\' i'ive of over 40. There is good downside support at 19. Stock should be bough,t, '–on all minor price declines. . (;. RUPPERT (JACOB) (11 1/8) is the eighth largest brewery in the countr,yo, hbased on capacity. Its principal market is the New York metropolitan area. ' , F Stock has had a steep decline in price from the 1946 high of 34 1/2 to the I 11'11950 low of 8. No dividends have been paid since 1948. Strikes were partiall,w !,' responsible for poor earnings but company's products lost favor with the \j 1; public. Improvement in products and an extensive promotional campaign may' have turned the corner. Technical pattern shows that possible base may be i 'forming in 8-12 range. An upside penetration would indicate rather sizeabl '.percentage advance. Stock is extremely speculative. ,,! i,,; December 21, 1951 EDMUND W. TABELL ;; !- ' –; (,; MERRY CHRISTMAS WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN i) m.rnoruduThis is 01 to b, construld as ,1. oU.r or lolicitati,on of offers tc buy or sell any II,uritiu From time to tim. Walston. Hoffman & Goodwin may ,..,,-' \;-, have an Intere,t In loml or 1111, of th SltUfltles mlntloned heraln The foregOing matarlal hal bun prepared by UI as a matt.r of information onl., It is basld , 1'\\ upon Information belle\led reliable but not neceSlarily complete, I, not ;uaranteed a atcurae or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose indDendent Inquiry. ' -; – -''r1 –',\7Z i,iJ;f-,E;– -'—–\ – ',J-' ,- – – – – —; ' —-; – — –'I ' j.-'-..t- ' '!'..f.- -'J .