TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 987-2300 April 3, 1992 We have been fortunate enough to have been able to use this letter. over theyears.a.IILavehiclefnrthe-('-elebrationof-2.n1!mb'!'! cinappy niilestcines.- We celebrate-yet another chleS;;;n ihi.;week with th acquisitin of Delafield, Harvey, TabellInc. by the , U.S. Trust Corporation. The occasion stimulated us to dig into our files with a curiosity to see what had been said in these letters at prior important turning points in the careers of its authors. The first isaue of this publication appeared on December 2, 1944. This, therefore, is approximately the 2,469th i.aue, and we Will. in just a couple of years, celebrate 50 years of continuous publication. That first letter announced that, This letter…WIll attempt to forecast the pnce trends of the general market averages and… recommend purduJses or sales of individual securities. … The opmions expressed WIll be based not on the fondamental outlook for the securities…mentwned, but simply on the writer's interpretation of their technical market action.' It i. difficult to imagine just how radical a concept this was in 1944. Indeed, it was aufficiently so that the issuing firm found it necessary to terminate each isaue with a di.claimer which stated that 'the opinions… are the personal mterpretations of charts by Edmund W. Tabell and…not presented as the opinions of Shields & Company.' The first such opinion expressed was that 'the major trend of the market ISfavorable. a forecast which turned out to be reasonably accurate since the Dow, which closed that day at 147.50 was at 212 by 1946. As a matter of marginal interest. that initial isaue. entitled Technical Market Action was printed on plain wlute paper. The switch to light blue paper with a darker blue border was made ten months later, for reasons unrecorded at the time. We have seen no reason at any later time to make change in tlns format, and the publication has always been known informally as the blue tetter. IF The first milestone celebrated Edmund Tabell's association in December, 1948 with Walston, Hoffinan & Goodwin (to become Walston & Co. 1D 1953.) It was also the first to carry the title, TabeU's Market Letter, which has continued ever since. That issue suggested the likelihood of a decline (from \73) to the 170-160 area for the Dow. It went on. however, to say, … the major… trend IS up. The trading range of the past 2 112 years, in which the averages have ranged between 160 and 195 is a major accumulation area. It will eventually result… in a definite upsule penetration of the range and an… advance to the 240-250 level. (The DnA. of course, reached 161.60 in June. 1949. The upside objective mentioned proved to be conservative.) The present author's byline first appeared on the letter in 1955. Ironically our specialty, in those long-ago days of our youth a CoPpe;Co. – – -was the preparation of conventional fundamental individual.stock.reDorts.We.c.an still.recall..the I.bo'.thatowe!!tintothefirstofothese – pieces, recOnm;endation ofth Mag;,,;. The writing of the letter became a shared duty of both Tabell's, pere etfils, for the next decade until, in 1965. it became our sad duty to announce the untimely death of its founder, Edmund Tabell. We have noted before that many of the concepts pioneered by him in those early days have remained part of our analytical equipment on into the 1990's. There occurred, in August, 1970. the next major transition. We teamed with Mat Delafield (of Delafield & Delafield) and Ash Harvey (of Montgomery, Scott & Co.) to form Delafield. Harvey, Tabell. at the time a division of the latter firm. Three long-time associates of the founders. Bob Simpkins, Joe Hanlon and George Crane. joined us. The stock market, and prevailing conventional wisdom, did not make that founding any easier. As we noted at the time, We have come through a trying period… Stock pnces have plunged 11Wre precipitously than at any time since the 1930s….1t is all too easy to bearish… but, with most stocks having declined anywhere from 30 to 90 from fairly recent highs, it is silly to pretend that the market is sailing along totally oblivious to surrounding deterioration. (We believe) that intensive investment management can produce above- averoge results in the months and years ahead. and… that… the equity market might be a pretty interesting place in which to be. It was the task of that letter. as we saw it then, to shore up confidence. Our next benchmark later. 13 years later. celebrating the formation of Delafield, Harvey, Tabell as an independent firm in October. 1983. was presented with precisely the opposite problem. After recalling the 1970 letter. we S81d. 'Thirteen years ago we were two months past the low of the worst bear market in the memory of most investors. Last mght, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average achUNed the highest close in its hIStory. (1268.80) That high moreover represents the peak so far of a bull market which has, by many measurements… been the most dynamic one on record SUlce the 1920s. We noted that 'we do not… think that bull market is anywhere near its end.' We auggested, however, that at some point. it would almost cenamly be necessary to remind readers that there exist such things as bear markets and that common stocks do not go up forever. And now, finally, we join the U.S. Trust Corporation. It is a time, as was true at those prior milestones, that investors are facing new, and, to a degree. unfamiliar challenges. We have a U.S. stock market demonstrating record levels of valuation, strange things going on jn 9,!,eas markets,and ohvious signsof-political unrest and distrust of-the status quo., Our new parent, however, is, to say the least, not unfamiliar with dealing with just such challenges. It noted in a recent annual report that 'since 1853, U.S. Trust has had a tradition ofpreservmg and growing assets in good times and in bad. Our name. which has never changed, IS synonymous with mtegnty, strength, stability, a quality onentation in all undenakmgs, and a long-tenn, vaiue-oriented approach… In investment management, we have QI1 outstanding record of long-tenn success achieved through a consistent, disc!plined investment approach implemented over time. IF There eXISts, we are aware, a currently fashionable wisdom which holds that intensive and dedicated management cannot produce above-average results and expresses doubts regarding the viability of a consistent, diSCiplined investment approach. Our readers are aware that we disagree vehemently with this thesis, and it is obvious from the above that U.S. Trust shares this disagreement. We are proud to be joining with them in an effort to utilize our combined skills in aiding our clients to cope with the investment challenges which lie ahead. Dow Jones Industrials (1200) 3211.31 ANTHONY W. TABELL, CMT DEELD,HARVEY,TABELL Standard & Poors 500 (1200) 398.31 Cumulative Index (4/2/92) 7258.16 .- No slatement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any securrty referred to or menhoned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscnber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the slatements made herem Any acllOn to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hIS own mvesligatlOn and mformatlon Deta/lald Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporaliOn and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posltmns or trades In respect to any securities merltloned In thiS or any future Issue, and such posl\!on may be dlNerent from any views now or hereafter expressed In thIS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey. Tabelilnc , which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to liS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any secufJty mentioned herein IS avallabte on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 1609) 987-2300 April 10, 1992 We published in this space three weeks ago two charts. The first of these was a short-term (lO-point-unit), point-&-figure chart rI– of the-Dow-which.-wesuggested,-hnd-broken-cut-cf-wh&t—a.ppcarcd to bc-minor-topTTh-5trei1glli-ofl1rarweek-(the A'lerage-..vas'wlue–I,, mid-32oo's) constituted, we thought, a move into overhead supply and was, therefore, likely to dissIpate. The second chart in that letter was one of the Nikkei Index, and we noted that the Japanese indicator's move below 2O,000–at which level it had already been cut almost in half–was, to say the least, ominous. This week, of course, Japan hit the front pages. By Thursday, the Nikkel was at 16,Soo–iown 18.5 over just 13 tradmg days before a sharp Friday rally retraced part of the loss. The Japanese market is admittedly volatile, but this was one of the deepest plunges in its history. The U.S. market encountered a few equally steep drops in the 1930's. The only one remotely comparable in recent years would be, of course, the DJIA's fall of 34 in 11 days in October, 1987. As far as Tokyo is concerned, we have little highly original to say. Technical analysis is now a widely-practiced discipline, and many of our colleagues have noted the depressed volume on the fall so far, suggesting that large sellers are not bemg accommodated and the unlikelihood of a near-term bottom. On the fundamental side, experts are divided on the potential impact of an ongoing Japanese collapse on U.S. stock prices and, indeed, the outlook for the Japanese economy. Some of these experts are, of course, the same ones who were suggesting a few years ago that the Japanese were financial geniuses who could commit no economic wrong. In any case, let us reexamine the technical position of the U.S. market, this time with a 20-point unit chart as shown at left. It depicts the almost- straight-line advance in which the Dow, which was well under 2900 in early December, was, by the second trading day of 1992, above 3200. (The S & P 500, on that date, was less than a point away from its all-time high, which would be scored two weeks later.) For all nf QQ so f lIv the market hasl1l9yed sideways, or, in the case of the S & P, sideways with a slight downward bias. This week's Japan-insprred weakness decisively penetrated that sideways trading range on the downside. There is a very simple conventional interpretation of this pattern -that it is a top which should be measured across the line A-B, yielding a downside objective of 2900. There are, of course, a DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MID 1991 couple of additional pomts which need to be made. 20 POINT First, the breakout could be false—see mid-December 1991 for an example of such an occurrence. Second, an alternative reading is possible. If one accepts our original interpretation of three weeks ago, that the top was complete at that time, and the subsequent upside action was merely a failed move into overhead supply, then the downside target is more conservative— approximately 3040. In either case, we think that yesterday's and this momings probe back into the mid-32oo's is likely to be turned back by the overhead supply as was the one which preceded .t. Technical analysis is, in part, the study of trading ranges, and the reason we show a bit of history on the chart above is to show part of the long trading range which contained the market for almost all of the last three quarters of last year. Again, to review the action, the Dow moved up from a pre-Desert-Storm low under 2500 in early January reaching above 3000 by early April. It subsequently made four downside probes at 2900-2860 before rebounding each time. For the record, some 39.4 billion shares traded between the time the Dow first moved through 2860 in mid-February 1991 and the attainment of a new high on the day after Christmas. The tenets of technical work hold this to be support-an area of demand. Similar areas of support, from approximately the same time- I period, exist for most of the other major ave….ges, around 1250-1150 for the Dow Transports (1348) and at 390-375 for the S & p Composite (404). We expect this support to hold. The tops for the averages count mto it, not below it. These readings seem to be confirmed by the patterns for individual stocks. For the most part the potential tops do not seem, at the moment. to be of major proportions. Moreover, a great many of last year's market leaders, some of which have taken moderately severe beatings, have reached their downSide targets and their vulnerability from these levels appears limited. Our current favored scenario, in other words. is for a minor- intermediate, not a serious market drop. ' We expect, therefore. that the stock market will be a buy if and as the support levels mentioned above are reached. Nonetheless, as is always the case, the behavior of the market at those support levels will be Important. FaIlure of demand to materialize at those reduced prices could raise some serious questions, ANTiiONY W. TABELL, CMT DELAAELD,HARVEY,TABELL Dow Jones Industrials (12.00) 325447 Standard & Poors 500 (1200) 404.32 Cumulative Index (4/9/92) 7221.64 No statement or expression 01 opinion or any other matter herein contaIned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, an offer artha sohcllatlOn of an offer to buy or sell any securrty referred 10 or menlloned The matter IS presented merely for the convemence of the subSCriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be reliable we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be laken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporallOn and rts officers or employees, may now have or may laler lake. pOSitions or trades In respect to any securrtles menhoned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc which IS registered wrth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice 10 Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 987-2300 April 16, 1992 We stated conclusively last week, buttressing our argument with a chart, that the stock market was vulnerable to a correction, – foin!! fiJrthel' toSt!geec;t Jh2.t.Sl!cb jI .(orrection might carryasJow 8!i1thp..-300(1.2900 level. The-Dow.! which had lose4 gn th y before . we wrote the letler at 3224, promptly advanced over 125 points by this Wednesday. Now 125 points these wiys is under four percent, and we therefore remain only slightly embarrassed. Nonetheless, we must now decide whether to abandon our skepticism or to keep it in place for the time being. When one looks at anything other than the Dow, the rally becomes a bit less impressive. The S & P 500, at Wednesday's close of 416.28 remains below its two-month-old high. Our daily breadth index peaked on the same day as the S & P back in February and remains far enough below that high so that a number of days of positive breadth will be required to produce a confirmation. Least impressive was the fact that when the Average touched above 3300 for the first time m its history on Tuesday there were all of 59 daily new highs scored on the NYSE. (The figure improved slightly to 94 on Wednesday.) How low was this on an historical basis To find out, we took aU the days since 1951 when the Dow had posted a new 200-day high, as it obviously did on Tuesday and Wednesday. There have been, for the record, 899 such days. The 59 new highs on Tuesday constituted 2.63 of the 2,243 ISSUes traded. Only sixteen days in the past forty years had shown a lower figure. Intuitively, we thought this less than encouraging, so we listed out all of the 30 new-DJIA-high days on which the new-high percentage was less than 3. They are sbown in the table below. New of Percent Change 1n DJIA After Date DJIA Highs Issues Tr 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months DEC 26 1952 288.23 11 1.01 -0.59 -0.09 -7.76 -2.89 DEC 30 1955 JUL 30 1959 JUL 31 1959 488.40 673.37 674.88 34 2.86 -4.27 4.15 -0.03 -0.18 36 2.98 -1.49 -5.98 -4.15 -6.13 22 1.84 -1.75 -5.52 -4.30 -6.45 AUG 3 1959 678.10 33 2.78 -2.02 -5.30 -5.76 -706 DEC 31 1959 679.36 26 2.04 -8.35 -8.48 -5.00 -9.96 IIJA'. 5 -685 47' II I-I- 'OI J Ol. -,'60,-,,-.-l7 og—,–56,..,. -5 .6ll-.llO..9()' I 0 DEC 13 1961 734.91 36 2.72 -3.15 -2.75 -17.83 -1182 FEB 15 1963 686.07 37 2.82 -1.82 4.92 2.64 14.47 SEP 19 1963 743.22 33 2.54 1.02 3.12 9.82 13.71 DEC 5 1963 763.96 40 2.98 0.74 5.48 708 15.91 JAN 28 1964 787.78 30 2.26 147 4.30 7.82 12.12 FEB 7 1964 FEB 11 1964 NOV 9 1972 NOV 16 1972 OCT 7 1983 OCT 16 1985 791.59 792.16 988.26 1003.69 1272.15 1369.50 39 2.95 1.97 4.43 6.04 12.84 27 2.03 2.74 4.80 6.08 13.17 40 2.22 4.55 -2.13 -3.80 -1.39 50 2.79 2.35 -3.04 -9.37 -5.47 19 0.95 -423 -0.24 -7.97 -4.65 46 2.32 4.33 11.11 29.97 28.26 OCT 30 1995 JON 16 1987 OCT 10 1988 OCT 18 1988 JAN 5 1989 JAN 6 1989 JAN 9 1989 JAN 11 1989 JAN 13 1989 MAY 15 i990 MAY 29 1990 JON 15 1990 APR 14 1992 1375.57 2407.35 215896 2159.85 2190.54 2194.29 2199.46 2206.43 2226.07 282245 2870.49 2935.89 3306.13 58 2.86 7.28 11.78 33.01 30.74 58 2.93 3.17 7.01 -26.61 -18.30 48 2.52 -1.59 1.46 676 24.15 44 2.24 -3.83 3.07 7.03 24.68 53 2.71 6.54 5.22 15.33 25.06 48 2.43 6.24 4.74 14.15 22.93 59 2.97 5.53 4.79 11.77 22.56 55 2.81 6.20 4.46 11.16 21.97 59 2.96 270 3.84 10.62 2171 38 1.89 3.81 -2.25 -11.75 3.19 51 2.55 -098 -10.81 -11.34 3.51 37 1.85 2.18 -11.01 -11.09 1.15 59 2.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 The results turned out IDlxed. As the table shows, m the majonty of cases. 18 of 30, low numbers ot new highs resulted m desultory markets over the coming year. There were two periods in the forty years, though, when the market was able to surllve such occurrences—in 1963-4 and in 1988-89. The rest of tbe time small numbers of new highs tended to suggest below-average market results. Whether this will be the case at present we would not care to guess. Nonetheless, it is certainly possible to suggest that the paucity of new highs on the week's advance IS less than encouraging. ANTHONY W. TABELL, CMT Dow Jones Industnals 3366.50 DELAflELD. HARVEY, TABELL Standard & Poors 500 416.04 Cumulative Index (4/15192) 7295.48 No statement or e)(presston of opinion or any other matter herem contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrectty, an offer or the sollctlallon of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merelV for the convemence of the o;ubscnber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor althe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Tabelllnc, as a corporation and lis officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, poSllIOns or trades In respect to any seCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue and such poSllion may be dlHerent from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Oelafleld, Harvey, Tabelllnc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVISor, may give adVIce to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any statements made In thiS or In any other lSue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS available on requesl

TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 5 VAUGHN DRIVE, CN 5209, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08543-5209 MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC 609) 987-2300 April 24, 1992 In Febrwuy-March, we published a series of four letters on the 20-year price history of six prime institutional favorites of 1972, ,.. s!Oks Fe..hadseltl9 at)haUiq1ed !lub v.estal..Yigin. Th poir!cofth,,!Cise wI! tat, over twoddesoCa greal uu ……11 I market, the group had actually declined in pnce- TIle letters produCed a fairliheary response, 'some of it, predictably, accusing us of sacrilege. It may, therefore, be of interest to expand on a theme we alluded to briefly in the first of the letters, the exact process by which the six stocks were turned from favorites into outcasts. Purely as an example, let us consider the chart at the left of one of the six favorites-mM. A few features of the chart's rsther ingenious construction need to be noted. The line of connected solid dots traces IBM's earnings per share, and the scale is so constructed that the earnings and price coincide at a pie rstio of exactly 15. Thus the level of the stock's pie can be gauged by the price's distance above the earnings line. Additionally, the thin solid is a relative-strength line, rising when the stock is perfonning better than the S & 1955 to 1961 was of the honeymoon phase of the stock market's romance with Big Blue. Earnings were increasing (and would !!!!li!!!1 to increase through 1964) at rate of 20 per annum. At' 1961 high, the stock sold for what would be its high pie of almost 80 times trailing 12- month earnings. Phase two was a slowdown in earnings growth. The rate from 1964 to 1974 was around 14. The 1961 premium never reappeared and for most of the decade the stock's pie was in the 30's, extending briefly to above 40 at the 1969 high. Note that in terms of relative performance the stock actually reached its high in that year. Thus between 1969 and the January 1973 Ingh, the stock was actually a sub-market performer. Armageddon for IBM and the rest of the nifty fifty started, of course, in January, 1973, and the markdown of the pie from 40 to 13 took the price (adjusted) from 90 to 36. It is interesting to note that earnings growth continued through the third quarter of 1974, a few months after the stock had made its low. The decline apparently was in anticipation of nothing more than flat earnings for a year in 1974-5. For the next decade, to 1984, earnings growth returned to the same 14 rate which had charscterized the latter 1960's. What disappeared, however, was the market's willingness to pay a generous price for those earnings. The proximity of the price and earnings lines for the last twenty years indicates the multiple remained in the region of fifteen. This continued for a decade, although actual earnings decline did not begin until around 1985. What we think all this illustrates is the rather uncanny ability of the market to anticipate. IBM's pie reached its high m i961, four years before the eammgs-growth rate began to slow in 1965. Its high price relative to the S & p occurred in 1969, four years ahead of the 1973-4 break. That break, in tum, was already over by the onset of the flat earnings year. And for ten years, 1974-1984, the market refused to pay an above-average pnce for the stock although earnings were growing at a 14 rate and would not begin to decline until the mid-1980's. Note that when we use the word market here, we are referring to hard, cold numbers–price/eamings ratios, relative strength. the sorts of tlungs quantitative analysts tend to look at. While demonstrable deterioration in these factors was taking place, the public adulahon of one-declslon stocks was soaring to new heights. Also demonstrated, we thInk, IS the importance of investor confidence as a factor, along with standard fundamental data, in detennining stock prices. Technical analysis, of course, IS one velncle through which we may attempt to measure the level of this confidence. ANTHONY W. TABELL. CMT Dow Jones Industrials (1200) 3344.81 DELARELD. HARVEY. TABELL Standard & Poors 500 (1200) 410.61 Cumulallve Index (4/23/92) 7213.97 No slatement or expression of opinion or any other matter herem contained 15 or IS to be deemedto be. directly or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation of an offerlo buy orsell any security referred to or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we beheve the sources of our Information to be rehable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabellinc , as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may later take, posllions or trades In respect to any secun1les mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e)(pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabelllnc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Iflvestmenl adVisor, may give adVice to ItS Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request