Viewing Month: May 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 03, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 03, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 May 3, 1985 . . – . We hav….of1e!l !a;kedI1thel thaltl!wrliDg. 9\-.a – wekly.. stoc1smatket, letti–1iJlexe!,coS' I-,1 calculated to engender humility. Last week. for example, we noted the fact that-the Dow had spent the previous month-and-a-half in a range bounded, roughly. by 1250 and 1275. Literally as we were writing that particular piece. it moved out of that range on the upside accompanIed by new highs in the S 8 P 500 and the NYSE ComposIte. We went on to launch a scholarly discourse on the market's internal behaVIor durIng that tradIng range and suggested that, whether last week's breakout was real or not. the ultimate resolution was likely to be on the upsIde. Startmg preclsely from that point, the market headed due south, posted a 42-point decline over the next four days,and broke out of the trad- ing range on t,he downsidc. producing a five-point. point-and-figure chart as shown below. II i Now that plunge over the precIpIce on the right looks pretty scary. The problem is that the fact of the plunge is not exactly something privy to ourselves and to select readers of this letter. The above chart can currently be reproduced. with varying degrees of accuracy, on about a dozen microcomputer systems. A conventional bar chart. which shows the downside breakout Just as dramatically, appears dally In the Wall Street Journal. The ostensible message of downside breakouts is now known to just about the entire financial community and is. today. if not universally beheved. at least not. as was the case a few years ago t aggressively disbelieved. All of the above has been true for some years now. This has had a tendency to produce a phenomenon known as the false breakout. four instances of whIch are noted by arrows In the chart above. The fIrst three in question were downside breakouts which took place respectively In July, October, and December. 1984. The most recent instance was the upside breakout just last week. The chart documents the aftermath of each. We are not here advocating the heresy that analysis of trading ranges has become meanIngless. We are simply suggesting that an upside or downside breakout is becoming more and more difficult to identify at the precise time it is taking place and that such identIficatIon reqUIres corroboration by a fair amount of supportIng eVIdence. That eVIdence was conspicuous by Its absence in last week's turnaround. We suggested at that time that market breadth was not showing the sort of deterioration which should presage a major decline. ThIS has continued to be the case In the past fIve day's tradIng. Despite the market'S sharp drop. the number of dechning issues remained below its normal fIgure on three of the four days since the market turned down. The normal expected level for a daily breadth index at this point would be somewhere close to a test of its low of last December. Instead. breadth indicators remain today not all that far away from their February hIgh. The week's action was not WIthout its disappointment. Downside volume and other measurements showed the eXIstence of sellIng pressure of some intensity, intensity that, if It were to continue. would be profoundly disturbing. Nonetheless. before beIng panIcked by the pIcture shown by the chart above, it is wise to recall that. as measured by broad-based Indicators. the market achieved a newall-time high Just a week .ago. and the aftermath so far has been only four days of somewhat disappointing action. AWT rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12.00 p, m,) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/2185) 1248.67 179.40 2381. 01 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC, … No statement or expresSion of OPInion or any other matter herein contained IS or Is to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any secunty referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience of the subSCriber While we believe !he sources of our Information to be reliable, we In no way represent orguafantee the accuracy thereat nor of the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subsCriber should be based on hiS own Investllatlon and mformalton Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporal Ion and lis officers or employees, may now hae, or may later take, poSItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such position may be dllferent from any views now or hCleafter eypressed In thiS or anyolher Issue Detafletd Harvey Tabell Inc, whIch IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give advIce to ItS Investment adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made In Ihls Of m any other Issue Further mformatlon On any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 10, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 10, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER -. 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 —1—-' . May 10, 1985 -Iwo we..ks ,ago ,–onApril ..25,.!!andarcLJI Poor's50QoStock .IndeL.closed,l!t183. 43,a,marginal. , .08 above the peak it hac!- posted more than two months before' in February.' At that level, the 500 was at n newall-time high, 79 above its 102.42 close of August 12, 1982. As of a fortnight ago, therefore. a 32-month-old bull market was still in force. Our present investment perspectIve can be summed up in the sentence that 32 months is a long time for a bull market. Now that statement IS intended to do nothing more than supply perspective, and it is certmnly not intended to imply any particular near-term pessimism on our part. The continued existence of a bull market as of two weeks ago is a fact. GIven that fact, there exist at the present time three possible market scenarios. The first is thut April 25 was the high (unlikely). The second is that the bull market will continue to score modest new highs throughout the remainder of the year (more likely). and the third is that those hIghs will be significantly above and removed in tIme from present levels (less likely). This combination of pOSSIbIlities enables us to view the market In an essentially constructive mode. preCIsely as we have been doing for the past 32 months. However, cycles must invariably come to an end and. quite probably. this one will do so within the next year. Therefore, caution is appropriate. Strangely enough. it is not too early, even with the bull market's end sitting out there at some nebulous point In the future. to try to look beyond that point and formulate some guidelines as to what might ensue. What will next take place, of course, is a bear market of as-yet-unknown severity. Like all bear markets. it will not be pleasant but will, eventually, run Its course. What wIll follow. as the night the day, is the next bull market and it is not premature. even at this stage, to engage in preliminary speculation as to whence the leadershIp for that bull market might come. One of the first places to begin looking for cycle bull-market leadership is among non-parti- cipants in the previous bull market. Two major areas which seem to fall in this category as far as the present market is concerned are the 011 and the Over-the-Counter sectors. Both of these, m different ways, are major-market segments. The GTC market, by def,m- tion. consists of smaller. and, therefore, higher-growth-po!ential companIes a…!ld &an be taken–largely, -. –I—';althOUgn nottotally, synonomous withthe-high-technology -area Gils—;-although at the exact opposite — –. end of the scale in company SIZe, tend to constitute some 20 of the broad-based indices. They also tend, empirical studies have shown. to move in their own cyclical rhythm. independent of other major market segments. That both have been underperformers is demonstrable. The NASDAQ OTC Industrials rose almost 130 between August, 1982 and June, 1983, tWIce as much as the S & P 500. They then dropped almost 40 over the next year, to July, 1984, and equalled their July low in December during a period when the market In general was moving ahead. In order to trace the Oils' underperformance, it is necessary to go all the way back to November, 1980. five months before the end of the bull market previous to the current one. At that point the S & l' Oll CompOSIte reached 392.2. To the August, 1982 low it dropped 52. twice as much as the market as a whole. The subsequent recovery, which extended to April, 1984. was more or less in line with the market as a whole but follOWIng this another period of underperformance set in. and. as recently as January of this year, the Oil index was still below Its 1984 high. The underperformance of the two groups can be summarIzed by noting that, at current prices, the OTC Industrials are just moderately above their 1980- 81 high and the Oils still remain below that high. The 500, by contrast, is today some 30 above its previous bull-market peak. It is not unusual for a group which is to lead a bull market to begin to show above-average relatIve action in the final stages of the preceding one. A notable example is basic-Industry stocks In the early 1970's. These issues began to show Improved relative action at the end of the 1970-73 up- swing and in turn led the 1974-76 bull move. Therefore. recent action in the Oil and Over-the- Counter sectors assumes some importance. From its January low, in response to takeovers and restructuring, the Oil Composite has moved from 310.6 to a level of 372.0 on May 1, a 19.8 gam. GTC improvement, by contrast, was impreSSIve during December-February, when the NASDAQ IndustrIals posted an al.n108t 25-rise. twice as great as the market. However, the subsequent follow-through has been disappOlnting. It IS. of course, not known at this stage whether these two areas will continue to show im- proved technical action, suggesting their possible leadership role in a future upswing or whether they WIll agam begin to underperform and entirely new potential leadership will emerge. Their tech- nical behavior, in any case, will be worth watching. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones IndustrIals (12 00 p. m.) S P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/9/85) 1272.08 183.30 2405.82 NO statement or eypresslon of OPinion or any other matter herein contained 1, or Is to be doomed to be directly or mdlreclly an oller or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any secuflty ret erred 10 or mentioned The mailer IS presentoo merely for the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our mformatlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guaranlee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements mada herein Any action to be taken by the subscriber Should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Delalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporahon and liS olilcers or employees, may now have or may later ta;-e, posItions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be dllfcrent from any VieWS now or he/ealter expressed In thiS 01 any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS Investment adVISOry and Other cuslomers Independently 01 any statements made In thiS or In any othor Issue Further Information on any secunty mentioned herOin IS available on rOQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 17, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 17, 1985
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TABELL1S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 May 17, 1985 We will. thIS week, duly join most technical writers m celebratIng a new bull-market high In sreeecmo gsmatsi o noood f the fnct a tIme as that any such a hIgh to drag-out. was onc mdeed e agam attai . -ari- nue-pddabtyedt-hveeSstlaonndoa-rrdth&e-' P cL oors hart 500. It there 'belo';, which fho-ares—- appeared In thIS letter a number of tImes In the past and may well appear again before the entire pro- cess is over. CYCLE PERIOD LOW-HIGH AOVANCE) PEAt. CYCLE DATE UN JSIl9-SEP 1953 Pls-cell97 ocr I S7-JUN 19 2 JU 1962-0CT 1 5 OCT J966-f'lRY 1970 MAT 7 – CT 197 aCT 1 7 -MRR 7 HFIR 197e-RUG 1982 (.73 141 (119 021 196 75) JR 1953 RUG 1956 ..86 35) DEC 1961 (.79 7el F 56 173.5' JlN 197 P 197 (6 70J NOV 1980 172.65 OCT 1 1983 I-I (68 'I CtJ9/REIr CTCLE ( 24.8 JUl 1981.,\ 11.,\7 82 1811 54 MlH 1 1985 I 0Ea.1 IQI .-u,TIl '-Ir !VI! UII'I SEP..l.9S on ,ooo,e, .,L'lJ JUN I Qt;JRUG.JSa; MRT…1.S2l That process is the current major market cycle WhICh began on August 12, 1982 at 102.42 and. interrupted by the October, 1983-Ju1y, 1984 intermediate-term correction, carried to 184,54 as of Wednesday I an 80 advance. We identify this as the 24th such major cycle since 1896, and the history and shape of the eight previous cycles is shown by the horizontal lines at the top of the chart. The lines are drawn to the same horIzontal timescale as the chart Itself. and each cycle is measured from low to low. The high for each cycle is shown by a hash mark along with its date and the total percentage advance. It is well known that past cycles have averaged just under four years in length. Furthermore, the vast majority of all prevIous cycles have spent something between 50 and 90 of their total lifespan advancing. Now these figures are admittedly imprecise but, when applied to the current instance they suggest a cycle peak m the latter half of 1985, or, at the latest, early 1986. The eight prevIous cycles shown on the chart reenforce this. In terms of length. the present upswmg has lasted longer than all but two of the past eight bull markets (1949 -1953', and 1962-1966). Its percentage advance likewise is greater than that demonstrated on the five most recent upswings. We have noted repeatedly that comments of this nature are for perspective only, suggesting the strong possibIlity of a major peak's being attained sometIme In the next nine months. The internal loss of momentum whlch should proceed such a peak has occurred. so far, only to a limited degree. There exists an argument, advanced by some cycle theorists. which could vitiate the above reasoning — the theory that August, 1982-July, 1984 constItuted a completed cycle, in which case we have been. for the past year, in the first leg of a brand new bull market. ThIS argument has a few points to commend it, but we must confess we remaIn skeptical. A cycle completed WIthin 23 months has only one historical precedent. a pattern formed by recognizmg a four-month bear market in March-July. 1923 In order to dIVIde the August. 1921-September, 1929 period into two separate cycles. We think it far more conVlncmg to regard Fall, 1983-Summer, 1984 as an intermediate-term correction In a bull market context. The argument is, in any case, purely academic. Momentum indicators. for the time beIng at least, favor the fullY-Invested positIon advocated m this space for the past two-and-a-haIf years. Our precise cycbca1posltion as of May, 1985 can be left for theoretIcians to identIfy at a later date. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12'00 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (5/16/85) 1281. 80 188,13 2450.33 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL INC, No statement or CKpreSSlon 01 opInion or any olher matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed to be, drreclly or Indrrectly, an offer or the solicitatIon of an offer to buyor seff any security referred to or mentIoned The miltte! IS presented merely for the convenience of the subscriber WhIle we belIeve the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In noway represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the stalements made herein Any acllon to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hIS own investIgation and information Delafield Harvey, Tabeff Inc, as a corporation and ItS officers or employees, may now have or may later take, POSitIons or trades In respect 10 any seCUrities mentioned In lhls or any future ISsue, and such POSition may be dllferent from any vIews now 01 heleafter eApressed In this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered With Ihe SECas an Investment adVisor, may give adVice tOlts rnvestment adVISOry and 01 her customers Independently of any statements made In Ihls or In any other Issue Further InformatIon on any securlly mentIoned herein IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 24, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 24, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 May 24. 1985 We had the pleasure, two weeks ago, of attendmg the 10th Annual Convention of the Market Tech— …–!nls-.A!ia!ion at HIlton . S)Uth Carolina. These gatherings (we have been fortunate enough to be present -at every one over the past decade) ,are aIWays-enjOywle ana-inror-mattve-NOtonly is it .–.-' useful to be exposed to the thlnking of our COlleagues by way of their formal presentations, but it is also instructive to meet in informal gatherings and compare current market views. What \VRS most strIkIng about this sort of interchange this year was the unusual similarity of the market OpInIOnS of most of our technical brethren. and we must confess that we shared in this consensus. The four-year cycle is a phenomenon as famIliar to our fellow technicians as it is to us, and we found most of our colleagues agreeing that, in terms of this framework, the current market cycle is in a pretty mature phase. They also seemed to agree that. despite that maturity. signs of near-term deterioration are conspICUOUS by their absence and that the present short-term course of least resistence for the market is upward. The consensus, in other words, agreed m calling for higher prices — but prices not all that much higher and perSIsting for not that much longer. This, of course, is the view we have been expressing in this space for some weeks now and one we summarized just a week ago. Another principle of which technIcians are uniformly aware is the theory of contrary opinion. It is ffilr to say, therefore. that, collectively, we felt nervous at our apparent agreement. Market analysts are a perverse lot and, rightly or wrongly. they prefer to be alone in their views rather than part of a consensus. A good part of the informal dIScussion, therefore was devoted to what might emerge to make the consensus view essentially incorrect. If that consensus is for moderately higher prices, then two contrary views are possible. The rust one would call for Immediate sharply lower prices — the surprise emergence of a bear market. The second possibility IS that higher prices could indeed ensue but, rather than constituting a modest Improvement on todey's levels, they wIll be significantly higher and win persist for a protracted period of time. The theoretical underpinning for such a view would be the compressed -cycle theory to which we alluded last week. Under thIS theory. an l1unrecognlzed bear market took place between the Fall of 1983 and July. 1984 thus completing a shortened 23-month cycle which began in August. 1982. We currently find ourselves, therefore. in a bull market, not 32 months old but dating back less than a year. I–t—liQuchanupswing….quite-ob\dously–W.Ould…hsve A great….m09m …..ontheJmside '. -I It IS possible to cite a number of arguments in favor of this thesis without being -totally conVlnced by them. The first such argument would involve the action of market breadth. As we have been pOlnting out for the past ten months. breadth has generally outperformed the popular averages ever since the rise from July. 1984 began. Such out performance IS characteristic of the initial stages of a bull market. It followed, moreover, on the heels of a previous breadth divergence which had lasted from J.me. 1983 through January. 1984. That divergence. it can be argued. foreshadowed the 1983-1984 correction. completed last summer. Moreover, insofar as market breadth is concerned, it is Significant that, as of last Friday, our daily breadth index surpassed Its June, 1983 high, something which weekly breadth indicators had done early this year. Thus. there exists at the moment no breadth-divergence condition and the emergence of such a conditlon generally leads a market top. often by as much as two years. This, in turn. argues for a protracted period of better prIces. Another argument would be that, whlle it is difficult to recognize a completed bear market in the Widely-followed market indices. during late 1983 and 1984 such a condition certainly existed in large segments of the market, notably the High Technology IOver-the-Counter sector. This bear market began m June, 1983. before the decline in the averages started later that year and persisted after the listed seg- ment had bottomed, to December of last year. This out-of-gear condition thus could have helped to make the 1983-1984 bear market difficult to recognize. A final argument, which is not as perverse as It seems. can be found in the present slowdown of the economy. At first blush. this would seem to confirm the consensus theory — weakness in leading economIC indicators presaging a market which is about to top out. This is well and good, but it fmls to recognize the demonstrable fact that the market leads the economy rather than the other way around. ThtS. the 1983-1984 weakness can be interpreted as having correctly anticipated the current economIC slowdown. and. consequently. the present strength can be read as presaging economic improvement later on thIS year. FInally. there is. as we noted last week. the precedent for at least one severely compressed stock-market cycle. one runnIng between August, 1921 and July. 1923. Although this leads us into the realm of the exotic. there do. indeed, exist intriguing similarities between the present and the early 1920'S. – This is a subject which deserves further discussion at greater length. We reIterate our conclusion of last week that, fascinatIng as the above arguments are, we are not ready to be totally swayed from the conventIOnal view. While that conventional view suggests tat the market be approached with a certain degree of caution at this stage, it still calls for an aggresslvely- Invested pOSItion. one which would be equally conSIstent with the contrary theory outlined above. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Composite (12.00 p.m.) Cumulatlve Index (5/23/85) 1297.93 187.82 2474.51 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. NO statement or e,,-prC5Slon 01 opinion or any other matter herein contained IS or IS!O be deemed to be dlfecllyor Incilrectty, an ofler or the soliCitatIon of an offer to buy or sell any secunty relerred 10 or mentioned The maum IS presented merely lor the convcnlcnceof Ihe subSCriber WhIte we belIeve the sources of Our information to be reliable we m no way represent or guarantee the accuracy th(!flwf nor of Ihe statcmerl1s made herein Any aC!lon!o be taken by the subscflber should be based on hIS Own Investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, labell Inc. as a corporation and I!S oltlcers or employees may now have or may laler take POSitIons or trades In respect to any securttles mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such pOSitiOn may be dlif(!rfnt Irom any views now or helealter eJCpmssed In thiS Or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey labell Inc wh,ch IS reglslered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may gIve advice to Its if'lvestmenl fHlVlsory and other customers mdependently of any statements Inade In thiS or If1 any other Issue Further Inlormatlo on any secufltv mentioned herem IS available on requesl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 31, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - May 31, 1985
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– – ——— —————————— TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 May 31, 1985 We dlcussed at some length last week the theoretIcal dIlemma confrontmg the market analyst attempting to understand today's eqUIty climate. Interpretation in conventlOnal terms recognizes …'!-lhe—6oViousTact .tllatTmaj6rlJ5tlom-;-oc'curetllnKuguSt—nJ82 ,!-'-from hichoint .tIre -major aV'e'F8ges –….-I moved ahead to newall-tIme hIghs. scored as recently as 10 days ago. If the entire move is to be VIewed as the rIsmg phase of a sIngle major-market cycle. that cycle IS now in its 34th month, and historIcal precedent would suggest. first, that the advance is unlikely to contInue much longer in time and. second. that the bulk of the move. some 534 points on the Dow to date, has already been seen. That conventIOnal wisdom, in other words, would call for the recognItIon of a typIcal mature bull market. The problem hes In the Interpretation of the downSWIng WhICh took place between Fall, 1983 and July. 1984. If this relatIvely mild (in most stocks) correctIon IS to be viewed as a major bear market, the cycle which began in 1982 was completed at the end of that correction last Sum- mer, and we find ourselves currently in a bull market less than a year old. One mIght expect to be able to calculate prIce objectives from the existing chart patterns for the averages and deter- mIne which explanation was more hkely to be correct. Unfortunately, this is not all that easy, as the charts below ,Ii ' to ll1USIrIe I!!!, I \ I i ! I ! 'II i,I' ' !'! i ! i 1 I l !i'1 iiHil'HI,1Hi!mIHiIHiiHHH!Hf I' '1'1 I!! , II ii ,I I, i i l I I II 1'1 ,i,.co!Hl!f!IJij!Ht!t'iIH!iilttPil1\f'i!Il, jI I!I'i,Hmli,,'c'iiI Ii , The left-hand chart depicts the DJIA on a five-point-umt basis. If we are deahng with the termmal phase of a bull move, we should expect to read modest upside objectives from more re- cently formed bases and, it IS, mdeed, Just possible to do just this. The base at (C-D) between 1250 and 1280, formed between late March and early this month. proJects, as the chart shows, to 1360. A readmg of the base which preceded the year-end rally (A-B), formed in the 1160-1245 range between August, 1984 and late last year, yields a similar target of 1380. Modest price objectIves such as these appear to reflect the prevailing conventional wisdom in the fmancial community. An earlier base pattern between 1090 and 1180, from early 1984, is shown at (E-F) in the 10-point-unit chart at rIght above. This pattern also suggests a conventIonal sort of upside tar- get at the 1380 level . The dilemma arises from the fact that, if the extent of a major bull market, It would be proper to take a broader reading, centered around the bottom of that Dull market. That bottom must be taken to have occured in July of last year, and the best readmg of the pattern surrounding it comes from the S & P 500 rather than the Dow That index is shown on a two-point-umt chart at rIght, and, viewing June, 1983-January. 1985 as a head-and-shoulders pattern (G-H), –;. it IS pOSSIble to formulate a target as high as 236. The eqUIvalent figure on the Dow would be somewhere 10 the mId-1600's. Quite obVlously, the dIlemma remams unresolved although, as we have emphasized proper Investment policy, at thIS point. should tlt'l t recogmze that the course of least resistance IS upward, removed from current prIces the ultimate upsIde target may be. ANTHONY W. TABELL Jow-Jones IndustrIals (12 00 p. m.) 1307.57 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. S & P CompOSIte (1200 p.m.) 187.93 CumulatIve Index (5/30/85) 2482.18 No statement or epreSSlon ot opmlon or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or mdlrectly, an offer or the soliCitation 01 an offer to buy or sell any secullty referred toor mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convenience 01 thesubsCflber While we believe the sources of our mlormatlon to be reltable wo In noway represent or guarantee the accuracy Ihereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any aCllon 10 bo taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delafield, Harvey, Taoell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have, or may tater take, POSitionS or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any lutufe Issue, and such POSition may be dilierent Irom any views nowor heleaf1er expressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabell Inc whIch IS registered With the SECas an Investment adVisor, may give advice to ItS ,vestment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements made m thiS or In any other ISSue Further InfOrmation on any secuflly mentioned herem Is available on reQuest

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