Viewing Month: February 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 01, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 01, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 – February 1, 1985 Until a temporary stall finally occurred on Friday morning3 the extraordinary January market strength contmued throughout this week. Tuesday featured a 15-point rally, in which the laggard Dow finally achieved a newall-time closing high at 1292.62, eclipsing the previous peak scored some 13 months before. The Dow-Jones Transportation Average joined its sibling index In new high territory. The broad-based indicators, the S & P 500, the S & P Industrials, and the New York Stock Exchange Composite. whose new highs we celebrated last week, continued to post new peaks in this weeks trading. As might be expected. satisfactory numbers of individual issues have also been moving Into new high ground. The number of new 52-week highs has been above 100 every day for the past three weeks, with 319 such peaks being attained on Wednesday, the highest number, with a single exception. since November, 1982. The year-end rally has now reached about 11 on both the Dow and the S & P, an event which has, In the past. normally presaged a good market. However. what has contInued to be most extraordinary is the number of daily advances being chalked up in NYSE tradIng. For the first three trading days of 1985 declining stocks exceeded advanding ones by modest amounts. Following this. the entIre remainder of the month produced days on which advancing stocks exceeded declining ones. a string of 19 consecutive days. This has quite simply never occurred since breadth statistics were first compiled in 1926, — The phenomenon is rare enough that we thought it worthwhile to tabulate SImilar past occurrences. The table below shows every sequence of 12 or more successive advancing days in the past 59 years. the present case being the 15th such occurrence. Also shown are the percentage change In the Dow in the followmg 20, 40, and 80-day periods. Most interesting is the fact that, of the 14 prior occurrences of such an event. 13 occurred during periods WhICh we can historIcally identify as bull markets. The final three columns of the table give the date of the subsequent bull-market peak in each case, the number of –months until that hIgh was reached, and the percentage change in the Dow to the bull market's end. .–; —-r — -………. umbcr-of'- i.C 'a nif'-cAft' e 'r .' Iillr-'11i7Of..,.-….. ——D-a-t-e——— Da'J –D-J-IA— Jul 8-Jul 21 1936 12 165.23 Sep l-Sep 25 1942 12 109.37 Dec 3D-Jan 18 1943 16 121.56 Jarl 22-Feb 4 1947 12 182.29 Nov 26-Dec 8 1951 12 266'.90 Nov 7-Dec 2 1952 16 283.78 Jul 21-Au9 5 1954 12 347.79 AuS 4-Aus 24 1960 15 641.56 -20- – taus —- 1.46 5.35 4.48 -1. 64 1.30 2.86 -1.91 -7.70 40 Das ——- 1.56 6.8 7.40 -3.83 2.54 1. 47 3.48 -9.18 80 Da'.Js ——- 6.46 9.95 10.51 -6.85 -0.93 -0.25 11.21 -4.05 Mkt End Mth5. ——– Mar 1937 10 Ha 1946 44 Ma't 196 O Jun 1948 16 Jan 1953 13 Jan 1953 1 Apr 1956 20 tee 1961 16 —C-h-S17.65 94.29 74.81 5.97 10.07 3.53 49.8 14.55 Jul 28-Aus 18 1965 16 AuS 24-Sep 13 1965 14 894.37 9Ot92 4.12 2.36 4.82 3.34 6.39 Feb 1966 7.01 Feb 1966 6 5 11.27 8.06 Jan 3-Jan 24 1967 16 847.72 Sep 13-0ct 3 1968 12 949.47 Jan 5-Jan 26 1971 16 866.79 .Jul 25-Au9 9 1978 12 891. 63 Jan 7-Jan 31 1985 19 1286.77 -0.43 0.12 1.02 0.23 11 2.69 2.91 3.76 -1. 70 3.49 -0.04 6.53 -9.00 tee 1968 Dec 1968 Jan 1973 —— '1'i' 23 2 24 16.22 3.76 21.33 . The good news in the table, as mentioned above, is the fact that long strings of advancing days seem to be largely peculIar to a bull-market environment. The bad news is that they seem to be more characteristic of a bull market's later stages than its earlier ones. especially in recent history. All of the occurrences from 1960 to date have seen limited rises following the breadth strength, and .. in three cases at least, the remaining lifetime of the bull market was SIX months or less. The two occurrences in 1942 and 1943 and that of July-August, 1954 appear to be the only instances where a great deal of room remained on the upside. As might be expected. extraordInary breadth appeares to suggest addItional short-term strength. In 11 of 14 instances, the Dow had advanced 40 trading days, or approximately two monthslater. There appears to be a distinct upward bias for most of the other time periods under study. As is often the case. in other words. the recent extraordinary strength would seem to forecast further strength. rather than any imminent correction. AIVT rs ANTHONY IV. T ABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) CumulatIve Index (1/31/85) 1279.04 178.75 2333,68 No statement or expression of opinion or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrectty or indirectly, an offer or the soliCitation 01 an ofler to buyor sell any security referred toor mentioned The maller IS presented merely tor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources 01 our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscriber should be based on hIs own Investigation and mformatlon Delalletd, HaNey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and lIs ol1lcers or employees, may now have, or may later take POSitions or trades In respect to any secufltles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dillerenlirom any views now or Ilelealler e,pressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield Harvev laOOIl Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an investment adVisor may give advice to 115 Investment adVisory and olher customers mdependenlly 01 any statements made In thiS 01 In any other Issue Further Information on any secunly mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 08, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 08, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 February 8, 1985 – Lt-.weeksaw–continuation …ofthe–pattern-whi-ch has-characterized.,….1985-so-far'—market—- strength approaching the level of awesome but obscured by largely desultory performance on the part of the Dow-Jones Industrials, That venerable indicator finally managed to post a newall-time high on Janury 29, but subsequently dropped back and has been unable to equal that high since, while most other indicators salled merrily along to new peaks, The following table, covering the period from January 7 through yesterday gives some of the flavor of what has been going on, Days Up Days Down – Change Dow-Jones Industrials 12 12 8.87 Dow-Jones Transportation 20 4 13.23 Dow-Jones Utilities 18 6 2,87 S & P 500 17 7 11. 08 OTC Industrials 22 2 19.90 Advances vs. Declines 23 1 Up Volume vs, Down Volume 21 3 While the Dow has advanced on only half of the 24 trading days since early January, most of the other averages have chalked up substantial pluralities of advancing days, led by the OTC Industrial Index which has been down only twice, We have noted the extraordinary action of breadth in past letters, The actIOn of upside volume versus downside volume is also worth noting. Upside activity has exceeded downside on 21 of the past 24 days, and, for the 23 days ended Wednesday, upside volume was 1,687 billion shares versus 935 million shares on the down- side, The ratio of upside to downside volume for the period was thus in excess of 1. 8, a relative- ly rare phenomenon that has occurred in only 14 periods since these statistics were first compiled in 1964, By and large, through 1976, such a ratio tended to appear in the advanced stages of a pr9trJl.ct.e1iJ4;.e…SQIll.ething whiu!,-,,eaders are aware, fits in with our current market scenario-,–. I More recently, this sort of thing has tended to occur in the initial stages of fairly important up- swings, and this has, indeed, been the case with the last five occurrences. A comparable excess of upside volume took place in April-May, 1978, shortly after the bear-market bottom in February- March, and a follow up occurred in August of that year. The next two occurrences were in Sep- tember, 1982, in the take-off stage of the current bull market, and on the second major rally in that bull market in November, 1982. The last case was August, 1984 with consequences that are well known. Also apparent in the table above is some evidence of changing market leadership. Not only have the Dow Industrials lagged, but the UtIlities, possibly the star performers of 1984, are up less than 3 from early January. Meanwhile, the Over-the-Counter sector, a virtual disaster area for a year and a half, has suddenly sprung into the limelight, with an advance in the OTC Industrial Index better than twice that of the Dow. There is nothing unusual about this if one takes a long enough view of history. Sterling performance on the part of high-risk equities is, typically, characteristIc of the mIdd1e-to-1ate stages of a bull market. Generally, such issues lag in the early stages, while nervousness persists. Toward the end, breadth narrows, and, while a few outstanding performances remain, large numbers of speculative stocks tend to fall by the wayside. The initial stages of the 1982-198 bull market were an exception in their spectacular rise in the OTC-High Technology area. All this may be saymg something to risk-averse investors, who have had the best of all possible worlds for a year and a half. Conservative equity issues over that period significantly outperformed the general market, and portfolios comprised of such issues produced worthwhile capi- tal gains. For the truly conservatIve, the bond market offered historically high yields, coupled wIth a generally rismg trend, While all this was going on, speculators on the long side were, by and large, being decimated. This happy state of affairs for the widow-and-orphan class may well be over. Exceptional returns from here on out may well depend on a willingness to accept risk. For those unwilling to do so, the remaining lifespan of the bull market should produce satisfactory results, but outperformance will probably once again become the province of the speculator. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1287.10 S & P Composite (12 00 p, m. ) 181. 92 CumulatIVe 'Index (2/7/85) 2383.99 NO statement or expreSSion of opmlon or My other matter herein contained IS, or IS \0 be deemed to be dlfccllyor Indirectly, an o1!er or the solicitation 01 an ofler to buyer sell any secunly referred loor mentioned The matter IS prrlsanted merely 101 the convemence of the subscriber White we behee the sources of our mforma\lon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statements made herem Any action 10 be taken by the SUbSCflber should be based on hiS own Inestlgatlon and mformaiion Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its oilicers or emplovees, may now have, or may later take, pOSitions or trades In respect 10 any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such positron may be dllferent Irom any views now or hereafter epressed In this or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered with the SEC as an Investment adlsor, may give advice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformatlon on any securrty mentioned herem IS available on reQuest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 15, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 15, 1985
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS. INC (609) 924-9660 ' February 15, 1985 -. Thestock -market's apparefftinfatuation -with–round–numbers-manifested-itself–oncemore- at -.,.,. .. the end of this week. as the venerable Dow approached, for the first time, the 1300 level. Twice, the ancient indicator pulled back and refused to close above that figure, the first time after a 20point Wednesday advance, in which 1304.66 was reached on an intra-day basis, but where the close. although a newall-time hIgh, remained below 1300, at 1297.92. Thursday's trading saw another attempt at penetration in the morning, but late weakness brought a ten-point retreat. The market strength which has characterized 1985 to date has engendered the usual discussion regarding the possibility of a correction. There is no particular rational reason why thlS should be so, any more than there is a reason why the market should tend to hesitate when the DJIA approaches a figure WhICh ends m two zeros. Nonetheless, the tendency exists. We can re- call that. from the first occasion we were allowed to speak to clients. many long years ago. we spent a good deal of time trying to assure those clients that protracted periods of strength did not necessarily signal the imminence of weakness that would allow them to buy stock at prices of which they had not taken advantage earher. Nonetheless. it appears appropriate at this stage to try to assess Just what current downside possibilities, if any, might be. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average. with its hesItation around 1300. (it also dropped off from an intra-day hIgh of 1305.10 on January 30) does, at the moment, possess a potential top. That top would suggest the possibility of a downside objective somewhere in the 1260-1240 area. This level, in turn is just above the broad-base formation from which the average took off in early December. However, it must be emphasized, the top remains only a potential one. For it to become real, a downside penetration to 1270 would have to take place. The implication would be cancelled were the aerage able to muster strength and finally work its way to significantly above 1300. What must further be emphasized is the fact that this potential configuration exists only for the Dow itself, the notable weak SIster of the entire advance. None of the broad-based averages, such I-a'sme-S-&-P-SOO 01 tIle N'Y-s-E–Gomposite-,–haveryetl'l'0dced-comparable-so-tsoftapJoI'nlations. To take the lower fIgure given above, 1240 would hardly be a disaster. With the Dow now around the 1300 level, large point moves are coming to have less and less significance. and 13 points. once enough to stimulate headlines, now constitutes only 1. A move to 1240 would mean a correction of less than 5. This, admittedly, would be larger than any we have seen recently. The advance from the December 7th low, at 1163.21. to Wednesday's close was 11. 58 over 46 trading days. There have been. over those 9 weeks. only three corrective phases. two just over 1 and the largest being the three-day drop from year-end to January 4th of 2.2. This strength is admittedly impressive, but it is not without historical precedent. In contrast with the 46-day advance so far, there are, on record, at least four prevIOUS cases where the market has been able to advance for over 100 trading days without a single correction as great as the 2.20 seen m early January. It did so from January to June, 1950, from September, 1953 to June, 1954. from April to November. 1958, and from November, 1963 to May, 1964. Furthermore, the current 11.58 rise, with nothing bigger than a 2.2 correction. has been eclipsed by the advances mentioned above plus no fewer than 11 other cases where an uncorrected rise extended to 15 or more. the largest on record being an almost29 move in 1958. If one uses a larger filter, say 5, to identify corrections. it is possible to fmd large portions of past bull markets, in many cases continuing for well over a year, before sudiacorrection was seen. Again, in 1957-1959. the Dow advanced 60, over 410 trading days or 20 months, with- out a 5 interruption. The terminal phase of that bull market .fullowing an intermediate- term correction not unllke the one which ended in November of last year, produced a 14-month, 30 advance without a downswing of as much as 5. None of the above is intended, necessarily, to forecast similar strength, but simply to indicate that such strength would not be implausible. Certainly, it would be possible for the current top in the Dow to broaden, along with formation of similar tops in other averages. If such an eventuality takes place, suggesting a downswing of worthwhile proportions, we would hope to be able to identify it. The point is. however, that it has not yet taken place at this writing. This being the case, there exists nothing in the historical record to suggest that the recent salutary market environment cannot continue to exist for a great many more months. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m.) S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (2/14/85) 1290.53 182.45 2414.79 t Jo statement or cpfesslon of opmlon Of any other matter herein contained IS or IS to be deemed 10 be directly or Indlrectt!, an offer or the soliCitation of an offer 10 buy or sell any security referred tOOl mentioned The mal1cr ts presenlOd merety for Ihe convenience a! thesubSCrrber While we believe the sources of our Information 10 be rellabte, we In no way represent orguaral\lee the accuracy thereof nor of Ille statements made herem An) action to be taken by the subSCriber Should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and mlormatlon Defafleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation lind 115 officers or employeeS may now have or may later tahe, posl1\ons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS Of any lutule Issue, and such pOSItion may be dllfcrenl from anyvlflws now or hmeatter epressed m thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey Tabelt Inc which IS regtstered Wllh the SEC as an Investment adVisor may give adVice to rls Invcstment adVisory and othor customf'ls Independently of any slal'-Jments made rnlhls or In any other Issue Further Information on an security mentioned herein IS avallabte on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1985

Tabell’s Market Letter – February 22, 1985

Tabell's Market Letter - February 22, 1985
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,———————————————————————– – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924-9660 February 22, 1985 H A. ro!!10t.'J9-o-oL g!.ark..ekt'QJ!l1.!uq-e..!o J.y st ,iJm,-ce ,he Iow !.ahe E .lltime.-J;ling – hIgh of 129792 on February 13. The average dropped off to a closmg low of -1279.03 on -Thursaay and declmes actually exceeded advances for three consecutive days. Volume generally dried up as the market pulled back dropping below 100 million shares on Tuesday for the first tIme since early January. We have pomted out, in recent weeks, that the current rallymg phase from early December has. for the first time. featured action 1n the over-the counter market. While the major averages were ad- VaIIClng some 11. the aTe Industrial Index moved from 250.2 In mId-December to a hIgh of 312.4 last week, an almost 25 advance. It is perhaps worthwhile putting thIS phenomenon in longer-term perspective, which we try to do in the chart below. It shows the monthly average price for the Dow Industrials since October. 1973 and. underneath thIS, the ratio of OTC volume to NYSE volume and the raho of the NASDAQ OTC Industrial Index to the Dow. DOw JONES INDUSTRIQL RVERRGE OTC VOLUME / NYSc VGLUME OTC INDUSTRIRLS / DJIR INDuSTRIRLS – – —–I– ro BasIcally. In the period from 1973 to mid-1977. OTC performance was almost Identical to that of the Dow, with the NASDAQ Index generally tradmg at around 10 of the Dow figure. Beginning in 1977, a long steady Improvement set In. Although there were short interruptions in 1978 and 1980 and a protracted flattening of the relatIve strength curve in 1981-1982, by June. 1983. the monthly average price for the NASDAQ Index had reached 32 of the comparable figure for the Dow, Over the ten-year period. the Dow increase was 48 whIle the OTe average rose 310. Much of thIS gain has been given up in the past year and a half. By December, 1984. with the Dow about the same as a year earlier. the DTC indicator had dechned to 21 of the Dow figure. It had not been this low since early 1980 and was lower than It had been at the start of the bull market in August, 1982. The recent recovery has taken it to around the 24 level. What IS perhaps most interestIng IS the rlse In vQlume. For February. through thIS week, OTC volume has amounted to approximately 78 of NY SE tradmg. This. If It holds, v.nIl be the fourth highest monthly fIgure on record. and IS close to the peak levels of June and July, 1983. Quite obviously, based on the hIstory of the past fIve years at least. Over-the-Counter issues appear to be on the low end of theIr valuatIOn range relatIve to the Dow. The volume shown on the recent rise, moreover. suggests that they may be once more attractIng investor interest. It IS for thIS reason that we have been suggestIng that secondary and tertiary stocks may contInue to outperform the market over the short term. While this speculatIve phase might not be terrIbly long-hved. it could. however. be quite dynamIc. AWT'rs Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P CompOSite (12'00 p.m.) Cumulahve Index (2/21/85) 1280.92 180.00 2400.55 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY, TABELL INC, NO stalement Of epreSSlon 01 opll\lon or anv other maller herem contained IS Of IS 10 be deemed 10 be dlfect1f or indirectly an offer or Ihe soliCItation 01 an olfer 10 buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The matter is presented merely lor the convenience 01 the subSCriber While we believe the sources 01 our Inlormatlon to be relrable we In no way represent or guaranlee Ihe accuracy Ihereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taen bylhe subSCriber should be based on hiS own investigation and mlormatlon Oelalleld, Harvey, Tabell Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have or may later take posillons or trades In respect to any securities mentioned m thiS Of any future Issue, and such POSition may be dliferenllrom any views n.ow 01 hClealler epressed In Ihls or any other Issue Oelalleld, Harvey Tabell Inc v'hlch IS registered With the SEC as an mveSlment adVISor, may give advice to liS mvestm'3nt adVisory and other customers Independently 01 any statements made m thiS or In any other ISSue Further mlormatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on reQuost

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