Viewing Month: November 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 04, 1983
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.————————- – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 , …— – . November 4, 1983 -Most-investors -areHware 'of' the-superior 'performanceof'quality-stocks-over-l-ecenC —I ' months. We conducted a study this week in an attempt to pinpoint precisely where this super- ior performance might be occurring. We studied the price action of 1494 stocks over 3b-week and l3-week periods. We computed the average change for all these stocks and then divided them into five groups or quintiles based on percentage price performance. Needless to say, the performance of individual issues varied widely, For 30 weeks, the average stock was up 4.82 and for 13 weeks, the average performance was a 4,19 decline. The best performers, however, averaged a 42 gain for 30 weeks and a 16 gain for 13 weeks. The worst perform- ers, by contrast, averaged a 25 decline for both periods. We then took various subsets of the list, and computed the average performance in those subsets and the quintile for the over- all market into which each stock in the subset fell. The results are summarized in the table below. Total Avs Q U 1 N T I L E All! QUINTILE Stocs I. Ch!J 1 2 3 4 5 I. eh 1 2 3 4 5 —— All Stocks 1494 4.82 299 299 299 299 298 – 4.19 299 299 299 299 298 NYSE Stocks 1157 6.55 3 253 254 238 189 – 1. 88. 261 271 243 214 168 ASE Stocks OTe Stocks 140 3.66 197 – 4.00 37 21 14 25 43 -11.65 15 7 19 47 52 39 25 31 36 66 -11.74 23 21 37 38 78 OJIA Stocks 30 11.83 8 6 8 6 2 4.50 11 6 10 2 1 SiP 500 All S&P 500 7.06 98 112 119 93 78 0.63 136 110 129 70 51 – – -..- – To–1-00-S-&P-1-00A., 1-6-1-4-2-1-28-.23L40.5721 2!1361.3 6 Lower 400 SiP 400 7.80 Caltal EQuip, 91 6.72 EnerS'tI 34 14.41 84 91 91 70 64 0.65 115 86 93 57 45 -16 19 23 18 15 1 t 02 14 25 22 19 11 9 9 13 3 0 – 1.57 3 6 18 3 4 Natural Res. 48 8t4 11 11 9 11 6 0.76 16 9 11 7 5 Consumer Dur. 42 8.66 15 7 3 5 12 1.18 15 8 6 10 3 Utl1itll.S 41 14.99 9 17 11 3 1 8.09 19 17 4 1 0 Cons. Non-Dur. 172 5.71 Financial 44 – !.45 Transortatlon 20 9.83 26 39 45 39 23 1.53 48 38 51 19 16 3 6 8 11 16 – 3.76 11 3 13 9 8 8 2 4 2 4 – 2.44 8 4 4 2 2 NYSE-Non-S&P 675 6.15 139 125 135 154 124 – 3.66 129 162 120 124 120 As expected, NYSE stocks significantly outperformed ASE and OTC stocks, OTC issues actually declined over 30 weeks, and a third of them were in the worst performing category, The extent to which the 30 Dow-Jones issues outperformed the rest of the list was also somewhat surprising. Their 3D-week gain was two and one-half times as great as the entire list, and they were up significantly over the l3-week period. –.- – Strangely enough, this superior performance was not shared by the top 100 stocks in the S & P 500. These issues underperformed all S & P issues for 30 weeks, although their recent performance has been a bit better. The lower 400 issues in the S & P actually outperformed the top-tier stocks. We also tabulated the performance of NYSE issues not in the S & P, and -this performance for 30 weeks at least. was,in line wit!! !he market. The table also shows the performance of various S & P stocks divided into economic sectors. In this category, the standout performers are the Energy and Utility groups over 3D-week periods while Financial issues have distmguished themselves by their relative weakness. The utllities' strength continued over the most recent period, but strength in energy stoCk/. f decreased. p' AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL !5' DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1220.63 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 16283 Cumulative Index (11/3/83) 1968.81 No statement or eypreSSlon of opinion or any other matter herem contained 15 or IS to be deemed to be directly or Indirectly, an oiler or the soliCitation 01 an oller to buy or sell any security referred toor mentioned The mailer IS presented merely lor the convemence of the subscriber While we oellevethe sources 01 our Informallon to bereifable, we Inno way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herein Any actIOn 10 be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own investigation and Information Delatlald, Harvey, labell Inc, as a corporatIOn and lIs officers or employees may now have, or may later take, poSitions or trades In respect to any securilles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be dillerent from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Detafleld Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advisory and other customers Independenlly of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further mformahon on any security mentioned herem Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 11, 1983
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-..'- – – – – – – – – – – , . – , ,,F '1 . TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 . – . , November 11, 1983 Any-strueture ,(bmaH…….how–large-and-complexean be'brokenowrralmos1infinitely– into individual components. This applies tothe stock market, where ft is a truism that long- term moves can be separated into a series of short-term rallies and declines. We find our- selves. at the moment, 15 months into the bull market which began on August 12, 1982. Ap- plying a filter technique with a filter threshold of a bit over 3 to that market, we find that it can be broken into 20 separate components, 10 short-term rallies and 10 short-term declines. What is interesting is that it requires only miniscule changes in the nature of these components to produce quite a drastic alteration in the long-run picture. Between August, 1982 and May of this year, the Dow advanced 58 over some nine months. For the six months from May 6 through Monday, the short-term low to date, it was actually down slightly. It is worthwhile looking at the change in the nature of the short-term swings that have produced this rather dramatic reversal of market behavior. Some of the relevant statistics are summar- ized in the table below. Advances Advances Declines Declines Number of Moves 8/12/82-5/6/83 5/6-11/7/83 8/12/82-5/6/83 5/6-11/7/83 73 6 4 Average Change 12.07 6.75 -5.26 -5.10 Largest Change 20.32 10.45 -6.99 -6.48 Average Length-Trading Days 20 18 8 18 Longest Length-Trading Days 72 44 14 22 Change Entire Period 58,65 – 1. 44 58.65 -1. 44 Length – Entire Period 186 128 186 128 The upswing from last August to this May lasted 186 trading days and consisted of seven ,advancesandixdecline8-.-he ..average4vanee-was .. 12 ev-trading-days. T-helargestc–''-ll- was the take-off rally of August 9, and the longest the 72-day advance from January through May of this year. The declining phases during this period averaged 5 and lasted for a mean of eight days. This whole structure combined to produce one of the more dynamic bull markets in history. The components did not have to alter greatly to produce a market that has done nothing for six months. What has happened is that the average rise in the three advancing phases since May has been cut in half, to 6.75, although the average length of advancing phases has remained about the same. Interestingly enough, the average decline for the four short-term drops since May has been less than the average decline prior to May, only 5.1. The most significant change is that the decline phases have lasted longer. The Dow declinEd for 22 days from May 6 through June 8, 21 days from June 16 to July 18, 9 days from July 26 to August 8, and, to date, 20 days from October 10 through Monday. While declines in the bull market's early stage were often over in a bit more than a week, recent ones have tended to last almost a month. The change in market environment, therefore, has consisted of a switch to smaller, although not necessarily shorter, advances and longer, although not necessarily deeper, de- clines. This small change has produced the switch from a dynamic bull to a sideways market. What is perhaps relevant over the short term is that a bottom on Monday of this week would fit the decline ended on that date squarely into the context of its three predecessors since May. It would wind up being 20 days long, involving a 5.4 drop. Many short-term indicators had, at some stage of the game, reached levels associated with the bottoms of the last three declines and, moreover, have acted somewhat better on the recent fall than was the case last August. Indeed, despite continued declines in the Dow, downside volume, for . example, peaked on October 31 and has been declining noticably ever since, Declines. meas- ured on a 10-day basis. topped out on October 24 and have also been improving since that time, In other words, a short-term rally attempt from current levels would be entirely consist- ent with the market environment we have seen since last May. AWT rs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL INC. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1242.17 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 164.40 Cumulative Index (11/10/83 1968.54 No statement or e)'pres5lon 01 oplfllon or any other matter herem contained IS or 15 to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrec1ly, an offer or the soliCltalion of an oHerto buy or sell any secunty referred to or mentlonlW lhe matter IS presented merely for the Convenience 01 the subSCriber White we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereat nor of the statements made herem Any action to betaken by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mlormatlon Delafield, Harvey, label! Inc, as a corporation and Its officers or employees, may now have or may later take poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue and such POSition may be ddterent from any VieWS now or hereafter elfpressed m thl!; or any other Issue Delafield Harvey. labell Inc which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment advisor, may Qlve advice to Its mvestmen! adl'lsory and omer customers mdependently 01 any statements made In thiS or In an. other Issue Further Informal Ion on any security mentl(lned herein IS available on request ………. , .u .- .'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1983
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r——————————————————————————————————————, . TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC, MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 924,9660 November 18, 1983 — – It.is aasic..p.ur.poseof.,this-lettmmen t,onc,ul'l'!,ntdev.elopments,in…seitiesmarkets, and, judging by the column inches of newsprint'devoted tothe subject,' there' has been no recent such development of any importance other than the forthcoming breakup of the American Telephone & Telegraph Company. For the benefit of those who have spent the last two years in the Sahara desert. that company will, in mid-February, distribute to its shareholders shares of seven new operating companies, one-tenth of a share of each company for each Telephone share now held. Trading on a when-issued basis in the seven new companies, plus the new AT&T, will begin on Monday. The paper work that has been generated by all this and the number of people that will be affected by it both probably set records. Telephone has 938 million shares outstanding, held by some 3.1 million separate shareholders, at a current market value of some 60 billion. This size has lead to a mini-growth-industry engaged in assessing the individual values of the new compon- ents, an industry that will undoubtedly burgeon now that dividend rates and projected operating figures for the new companies were released on Wednesday. In this respect, the appropriate func- tion of this letter is a bit different. We are technicians, and we would not presume to quibble with our fundamentalist colleagues in respect to their analysis of relative values of the entitites involved. It is, however J our function to comment on numbers, and, since the issue at hand involves some rather large ones, we will assay such a comment. Among the numbers that have been floating around are some rather astronomical estimates of the projected increase in New York Stock Exchange trading volume as a result of the breakup. These projections run as high as 15. It is difficult for us to justify these figures. For the year ended this Wednesday, the average volume k AT&T common has been 1,192 million shares daily, some 1. 43 of total NYSE volume. The breakup will increase shares outstanding by 70. A 70 increase in Telephone's ,historic trading volume.would.l'roduce 834,000 shares of additional trading. This is an increase of almost exactly 1. Even on Telephone's most active'recen't day, October 19, -. I— it accounted only for 5! of total NYSE volume. Increasing this by 70 would produce a total volume rise of somewhere in the 3 range. . . Let us put it another way. Total trading volume in AT &T over the past year has been some 304 million shares. A 70 increase would produce an additional 212 million. Let us assume (unreal- istically) that, in addition to this increase, every single holder of newly-distributed shares decided to sell them in the next 12 months. This would produce 656 million more shares of volume for a total of 868 million shares. That number is a bit over 4 of total NYSE volume over the past year. There is, moreover, some real evidence that much of the anticipated volume increase in Telephone may already have taken place. The breakup has, of course ,been essentially a fait accompli since January, 1982. In the past 12 months Telephone has traded 2.66 per month of its total shares outstanding. This number is 62 of the NYSE average of 4.3. For the 1980-1982 period, Telephone's turnover ratio as a percentage of the NYSE turnover ratio averaged between 41 and 45. For prior years it was considerably lower. This would suggest that some portion of the portfolio adjustments to be made as a result of the breakup have already transpired. A number of other factors mitigate agalnst a sharp increase in volume. One is the profile of the typical Telephone shareholder. As noted above, there are 3.1 million such. producing an average holding of 298 shares with a market value of 18,774. This is in contrast with, for example, IBM, where the average holding of an individual shareholder is worth over 100,000. These are, in other words, individuals who have demonstrated an ongoing loyalty to the company, and large numbers may elect simply to hold their shares or, alter,natively, invest in Humpty-Dumpty funds. Neither course of action will produce any volume increase. Shareholders may also adjust their holdings by an option offered through the company, and, since it is necessary to hold 1000 shares of the present Telephone in order to receive round lots of the new stocks, many will make such .. adjustments via the odd-lot market. These latter two instances will, of course, produce some in- crease in round-lot trading but, to a great extent, activity in those cases will be netted out internally. There will, of course, be a short-term increase in the level of trading by professionals as the market performs the necessary process of sorting out the relative values of the new enterprises. Such trading may produce some falrly significant short-term bulges in the week ahead. It would nonetheless seem to us that, despite the magnitude of the breakup, the financial community will adjust to it without a great deal of alteration in business as usual' and without the sort of in- crease in trading activity that seem to be widely anticipated. AWTrs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) 1250.10 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 165.53 Cumulative Index (11117/83) 2008.78 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expressIon of opinIon or any other matter herem contained Is, or Is to be deemed to be directly or mdlrectly, an oHer orthe soliCItation of an ofter to buyor sell any security referred to or mentIOned The maner IS presented merely lor the convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our information to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor 01 the statements made herem Any action to be taken by the subscnber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and Information Delafield, Harvey, laben Inc, as a corporatIOn and liS oilicers or employees may now have or may laler take, positions or trades In respect 10 any securities mentioned In this or any future Issue, and such posllfon may be dllferentlrom any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other Issue Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc, which IS registered WIth the SEC as an Investment adVisor, mayglYe adVIce to lIs Invostment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any statements made In thiS or In any other Issue Further Inlormatlon on any secuflly mentioned herein Is available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - November 25, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SECURITIES DEALERS, INC (609) 9249660 November 25, 1983 . '.I—Afterpausingduringt.he week-ofNovem ber '14-18.-t.herally..,from-the-N9vember..,.7low-lesumed . agam in fr'aafng early this week with an 18-!,oint advance in the Dow on Monday and a seven point follow-up on Tuesday. We have pointed out in the past that, with no justification that we know o November action tends to be a good predictor of the year ahead, and, since the Dow closed October some 50 points below its current level, November, this year, is likely to be recorded as an upward month. Perhaps even more constructively, there has been a noticable change in market character during the rallying phase which began on November 7. The problem with the market since June, as readers of just about every financial publication including this one have been told until they are sick of hearing about it, has been the dismal action of secondary issues. This action can be summarized in the following table showing key recent levels for five market indicators. June High August Low October High November Low 11122183 DJIA S & P 500 Cumulative Index 1247.40 170.99 2029.72 1163.06 159.18 1922.46 1284.65 172.65 2062.27 1214.84 161.91 1951.14 1275.81 166.84 1997.18 OTC Industrials AMEX Index 408.40 246.38 356.30 226.53 365.30 237.63 313.50 212.43 335.20 221. 02 The market's history since June has consisted of a decline to August, a rally to Ootober, a second decline, which bottomed this month, .nd a tentative rallying phase to date. The action of the first three indicators in the above table (including our own Cumulative Index of all NYSE stocks) has been quite different from that of the latter two averages, representing the more -'-',spCUlatiVl!–.egment-of-the-marketherst-three-indicatorsa1I-madighs–eH-the–i.aHy-into–I- October and, at their November low, held well above their lows of August. Of the three, the Dow, at least, is within an ace of a new high. By contrast, the AMEX and OTC indicators rallied hardly at all from August to October, posted substantive new lows on the recent decline, and, even at today's levels, find themselves below their August low. The Dow, meanwhile, is 100 points above its comparable figure. The following table, however, shows that this action may be changing. It shows the close for the'S & P 500 and the OTC Industrial Index for the 9 days through Tuesday. It also shows the percentage change in each indicator and the difference between the two. The OTC average outperformed the S & P on seven of the nine days, something that has not occurred since June. The net result is that there has now taken place a fairly substantial rally from the November 8 low in the NASDAQ Index 6.92, versus 5.02 in the Dow and 3.14 in the S & P 500. Date S & P 500 Change OTC Inds. Change Differences November 10 November 11 November 14 November 15 November 16 November 17 November 18 November 21 November 22 164.41 166.29 166.58 165.36 166.08 166.13 165.09 166.05 166.84 0.27 1.14 0.17 -0.73 0.44 0.03 -0.63 0.58 0.48 319.30 325.40 328.90 328.40 329.70 331. 70 331. 70 334.00 335.20 1.11 1. 91 1. 08 -0.15 0.46 0.61 0.00 0.69 0.36 0.84 0.77 0.90 0.58 -0.04 0.58 0.63 0.11 -0.12 This relative strength improvement is, without a.doubt, highly tentative but is does constitute the best relative action on the part of Over-the-Counter issues in five months. Certainly this improvement can in no way be taken as a suggestion that the average secondary stock is an attracive buy at this point. It is. however, an indication that, after the severe decline in the speculative sector of the market, a base formation may possibly have begun. Such a formation must inevitably start somewhere, and very often it starts with a reasonably decent rally in short-term relative strength such as the one we have just seen. If the rally is the start of a base in the Over-the-Counter area, such a formation may require some time, time possibly measured m years, and will undoubtedly involve the testing and retesting of the lows recently posted. Nonetheless, the transition of OTC issues from a fullfledged major decline to a base-building phase would remove a dampening force which has been impacting the market ever since mid-summer. AWTkag Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p. m. ) 1273.87 S & P Composite (12. 00 p. m. ) 166.87 Cumulative Index (11123183) 2024.69 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL INC. No statement or expression 01 oplOlon or any other matter herem contained IS or IS to be deemed to be directly or indirectly, an offer or the solicitation of an olfar 10 buyor sell any security referred toO! mentioned The malter IS presented merely forthc convenience of the subscriber While we believe the sources of our Information to be reliable, we In nowey represent or guaranteethe eccuracy threof norof the statements made herein Any action to be taken by the subSCflbrshould be based on his own Investigation and information Delafield, Harvey, Tabel1 Inc, as a COlporallon and Its officers or empfoyees, may now have, or may lalerlake, poSitions or trades In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSIJC, and such POSition may be different from any views nowor hereafter e)(pressed In this or any other Issue Delafield Harvey, Tabel! Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an Investment edvlsor, may give adVice to Us investment advisory and o1t1er customers Independentfy of any stafements made In thiS or In any other ISSIJC Further Information on any secullty mentioned herein IS available on reQueSI

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