Viewing Month: June 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 03, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 03, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - June 03, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE June 3, 1983 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, which lost a total of 29.03 points during three straight minus trading sessions surrounding the recent Memorial Day weekend, began to firm in the middle of this week, –registedngt\Yo ..p9sitiye..s!1!Ys of IDtlrket – – As' anyone reading-the -wnnstreet action. Journal can'nofi,-bysimplyinspecling tne variomn5ar chartsof– the Dow-Jones Averages and NYSE volume, since penetrating the 1200 level on the DJIA, the stock market has spent most of the last six weeks moving sideways, just under its recent high of 1232.59 posted on May 6th on relatively high volume. Within this framework some rnther interesting upside action continues to take place among the indi- vidual components of the OTC markets. The sustained performance of this sector is hard to ignore as the percentage increase of the OTC Industrial Average speaks for itself. The NASDAQ industrials has moved from its August low of 177.70 to a recent high of 379.32 on May 27th. This reflects a 113.46 advance as opposed to a 58.65 advance in the Dow for the same period. This obviously has not gone unnoticed to the investor as NASDAQ volume in recent years has, in turn, increased substantially. In fact. over the past few years NASDAQ OTC volume has, for the first time, surpassed NYSE volume on a number of occasions, the most recent occurence was on May 27th when OTC volume reached 79.75 million shares versus 76.29 million on the NYSE. It is not difficult to suggest in the near future OTC volume could surpass NYSE volume on a regular basis, perhaps significantly. DOW JONES INDUSTRIRL RVERRGE OTC VOLUME I NrSE VOLUME The chart above presents a comparison of the ten-year history of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average to the NASDAQ Industrials. The first ratio, the monthly average of NYSE volume compared to the monthly average of OTC volume is therefore interesting. In the 1960's market technicians used a ratio of ASE volume to NYSE volume as a useful tool to measure excessive speculation. A peak in the ratio signalled an end to speculative excesses and in many cases, a peak in ,the ratio gave, a lead-time to a correction In the market. However, over the years the ASE volume fruled to proprotlonally keep pace with the secular increase of NYSE volume and the indicator is now ignored. It now I however I becomes apparent that by substituting as a proxy OTC volume for ASE volume the ratio is again valid as an -d .—., indicator in measuring excessive speculation. . The October, 190 OTC average monthly volume of 83.75 of average monthly NYSE volume is the hIghest level the rtlO has reached. Currently, the OTC figure as of May, 1983 stands at 75.60 of NYE volume, and. It can be presumed that within the current environment a further increase in this ratlo would be lOgIcal. The second ratio (OTC IDJIA) during the 1981-82 bear market and through the recent advance from he August, 1982 low ha behave normally, i.e., the OTC industrials declining relatively more sharply m d,,n arkets and rIsmg relatlvely more sharply in up markets than the DJIA, reflecting the higher volatllity m the OTC sector versus the DJIA. What. this sugges.ts to us, within the framework of our continued constructive outlook on the general arket, IS 7x.cellent mvestment results can still be obtained in the Over-The-Counter sector for those Investors wllhng to assume the risk. RJS rs Dow-Jones Industrials (12 00 p.m.) 1212.33 ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL ScN'M&\'PmI;CQte.mRrpfe'sJittAe\l9n( 1I'2h.q8lX8rypQ.rI Ia ni .y)o t n e r motter 164.30 be.r.c4'r)..co.RWlned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or ondrrectly, on offer or Ihe IICllotlon of on offer !-6''!jW6'rMntJo51t'1'y r\!Qredf!Q-bI mentioned The moLH iSrMUnted merely for the convenience of Ihe subscriber While we believe the sources of our Informa tlon to be reliable, we In na way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the s;alemenlS mude herein Any actIOn to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and ,nformat,on Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os a corporar,on, and Its offICers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, posilions or !rodeS In respect to any securities mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, ond such POSition may be different from any views now or hereafter e)(pressed In this or any other Issue. Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered wllh the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give odvlce to IS Investment adVISOry and other customers mdependently of any stolements mode In thiS or III any OTher nsue Further IIlformollon on ony secunty mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 10, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 10, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - June 10, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE , June1Q.,3 I. -, Thilrgen1iial market, as measured by the DOWJones i;dustrial 'Average; h-as'in 'recent week paused since penetrating the 1200 level. It would seem instructive at this time to quantify how the Standard & Poor's groups have participated in this advance to date. The following table summarizes the performance of the 94 Standard & Poor's groups from the August, 1982 low to the recent May, 1983 high. It is interesting to observe the large number of groups which have shown above average relative strength, in many cases outper- forming both the DJIA and S & P 500 by SUbstantial amounts. It should also be noted that the Capital Goods sector (75.48) recorded an increase larger than the Consumer Goods sector (59.84) over the same period. Expressed another way, using a representative cross-section of groups, it can be shown that tile inflationary hede sector slightly outperformed those groups identified as a deflationary hedge. GROUP NAME AUG 1982 LOW MAY 1983 HIGH CHANGE GROUP NAME AUG 1982 LOW MAY 1983 HIGH CHANGE BROKERAGE FIRMS 22.96 71.79 212.674 GOLD MINING 154.50 404.60 161.877 S&L ASSN HOLD CO 17.59 43.84 149.233 HOMEBUILDING 26.47 65.44 147.223 MOBILE HOME 86.26 205.82 138.604 COMMUNICATION EQ 16.77 39.21 133.810 AUTOMOBILES(-GM) 14.91 34.59 131.992 TOY MANUFACTURER 10.81 23.74 119.611 METAL MISC 69.47 148.53 113.805 -I- rE.XT-lU S -A P-P-ARC.E'L.,.d4.l-.-2-9-I-2.Q.l-3 PUBL-NEWSPAPERS 33.80 69.08 104.379 PUBLISHING 434.20 B57.80 97.559 RETAIL-GENL MERC 7.10 13.79 94.225 COMPUTER SERVICE 16.22 31.42 93.712 HOSPITAL MANAGEM 38.73 74.16 91.480 OF&BUSS EXC IBM 173.60 326.30 87.961 RADIO BRODCASTER 595.10 1109.00 B6.355 RETAIL STRS-OEPT 192.30 355.60 84.919 ELECT-INSTRUMENT 42.29 77.39 82.998 SHOES 72.10 131.32 B2.136 RETAIL STORES 88.62 160.93 81.596 POLLUTION CONTRL 39.72 71.86 80.916 AUTO TRUCK&PARTS 32.77 58.95 79.890 AGRICULT MACHINE 31.86 57.06 79.096 ELECT-SEMI COHO 27.33 48.75 78.375 OFFICE&8US EQUIP 987.50 1760.30 78.258 HOTEL MOTEL 63.02 111.61 77.103 AIR TRANSPORT 43.65 76.69 75.693 HOUSE FURN&APP 189.70 330.60 74.275 TEXTILE PRODUCTS 62.16 107.97 73.697 AIR FREIGHT 22.43 38.87 73.295 RETAIL-ORUG 35.26 61.05 73.142 AUTOMOBILES 51.72 89.46 72.970 FERTILIZERS 10.74 18.48 72.067 FOREST PROOUCTS 16.10 27.53 70.994 BLD MATER-COMP 55.95 95.40 70.509 RAILROADS 64.68 109.38 69.110 TIRES&RUBBER GDS 137.27 230.88 68.194 BANKS-NYC 47.46 79.20 66.877 AEROSPACE 136.85 227.01 65.882 COPPER 41.94 69.26 65.141 CHEMICALS MISC. 11.20 18.31 63.482 S&P 500 102.42 166.21 62.280 CONGLOMERATES 18.41 29.75 61. 597 ELECTRONIC(MAJOR 105.85 170.51 61.0B6 AUTO PARTS-OR EQ 16.70 26.66 59.641 PROP & CASU INS 118.47 188.16 5B.B25 Il.il8.. 776.92 W,,1.l 58.650 RJS rs PAPER OIL PETR-CRUDE CONTAINERS-PAPER MACHINE TOOL CONTAIN-METAL&GL 8EVERAGES-DISTIL ALUMINUM LEISURE TIME CHEMICALS BANKS aliT NYC RESTAURANTS TRUCKERS 8EVERAGES-8REWER MULTI-LINE INSUR RL ESTATE-INVEST PERSONAL LOANS UTIL(-ATT) FOOO CHAIN STORE OIL DOMESTIC ELECTRICAL EQUIP LIFE INSURANCE STEEL(-USSTL) OIL-COMPOSITE STEEL COSMETICS OIL INTERNATIONL CANAOIAN OIL&GAS MACHINE-INDUSTRL HOSPITAL SUPPLY SDAPS AUTO PARTS-AFTER INVESTMENT CDS FOODS-COMPOSITE MACHINE-CON&MAT DILWELL EQU&SER GAMING COMPANIES UT1L-TEL COS RAILROAO EQUIP 'ORUGS T08AC-CIGARETTE UTIL-NA GAS PIPE 8EVERAGES-SOFT OFFSHORE ORILL COAL-BITUMINOUS UTIL-NATURAL GAS ENTERTAINMENT UTIL-ELEC PWR CO INVESTMENT COS(8 196.03 308.60 57.425 436.50 680.20 55.831 208.20 323.60 55.428 127.26 195.49 53.615 32.68 49.65 51.928 194.60 294.81 51.495 101.65 153.42 50.930 61.98 93.12 50.242 47.89 71.77 49.864 82 04 122 85 49 .lA-4,—-4-I 46.88 69.9549.211 110.54 164.74 49.032 60.21 89.68 48.945 20.10 29.56 47.065 2.73 3.92 43.590 79.07 113.29 43.278 41.54 59.46 43.139 68.14 97.31 42.809 234.70 332.50 41.670 366.00 517.80 41.475 274.60 386.20 40.641 29.79 41.84 40.450 197.70 276.10 39.656 30.08 41.84 39.096 41.26 56.7637.567 168.73 229.60 36.075 15.23 20.66 35.653 111.25 150.28 35.083 59.20 79.72 34.662 166.64 223.89 34.356 16.31 21.64 32.679 52.54 69.55 32.375 89.39 118.11 32.129 246.40 324.10 31.534 1065.90 1398.30 31.185 10.55 13.73 3D.142 24.48 31.59 29.044 59.39 76.58 28.944 208.20 – 267.50' '28.482 112.45 144.07 28.119 148.83 189.74 27.488 120.73 151.54 25.520 100.91 124.25 23.130 244.90 296.40 21.029 85.03 101.21 19.029 271.20 321.20 1B.437 33.14 38.95 17.532 7.86 9.05 15.140 !WlSEKT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1196.61 S & P Composite (12 00 p. m.) 162.41 Cumulative Index (6/9/83) 1951. 73 No statement or e)l;preSlon of op1l'11on or ony other mottcr herein conil;lIned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlreclly. on offer or the 5011(;llollon of an offer to buy or sell any security referred 10 or menhoned The moiler IS presented merely for the (onvenllmce of Ihc subSCriber While we believe the sources of our tn/arma lion to be reliable, we In no woy represent or guarontee Ihe accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investlgallon and information Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, as a corporation, and lIs officers or cmployeoes, may now have, or may loter lake, pOSitiOns or Ira des In respect to any securities mentioned In thl or any future Issue, ond such pos.tlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other Inue Janney Montgomery colt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC 05 on Investment adVisor, may give adve 10 lIs Investment odvlOry and othel customer, Independently of any statements mode In thiS or 111 ony other Issue Further information on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 17, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 17, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - June 17, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – June 17, 1983 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose 11.02 points on Thursday, posting a newall-time high, .;;c,!.;los,..i.,,ng at 1248.30. While ,obviously , reaffirming the long-term bull-market condition which has been In —effecf siridUasf'August, the' conTInued strength' siiicethtt time-nas ;tieen;.jndeed-, remarkable-vTitl1in a time frame of 215 trading days the DJIA has, to date, advanced 471. 38 points or 60.67. To put this performance in proper perspective it becomes necessary to go back some 50 years in stock-market history to find a period where an advance of this magnitude has occurred within a like time frame. This has taken place numerous times (89) within ,a single, broad period of time between July, 1933 and January, 1934. The maximum percentage increase within this period happened on November 29, 1933. It is interesting to note in this instance the DJIA advanced only 47.98 points, but from a base of 50.16 to 98.14 or 95.65. It should also be pointed DATE DJ AVERAGE ADVANCE out that during this broad, uninterrupted advance there has yet to be a correction of more than 8/12/82 9/21/82 9/30/82 776.92 934.79 896.25 0.00 20.32 -4.12 6. In fact, the four minor 10/21/82 1036.98 15.70 corrections which have occurred to 12/16/82 990.25 -4.51 date have averaged a remarkably small 4.18. These percentage 1/10/83 1/24/83 1092.35 1030.17 10.31 -5.69 swings from the August, 1982 low to date are noted on the right. 5/6/83 6/8/83 6/16/83 1232.59 1185.50 1248.30 19.65 -3.82 5.30 The chart below shows the daily Dow-Jones Industrial Average versus a 10-day oscillator of advance minus declines from August, 1982 to date. 10 DAY OSCILLATOR What is interesting to observe is the orderly behavior of the oscillator relative to the market advance after the large, overbought condition was achieved in August, 1982. However, the significance of the large, overbought condition must not go unnoticed. On August 26, the 10-day oscillator recorded the largest plurality of advances over declines (7,434) in stock-market hIstory. This condihon can be compared favorably to past overbought markets, albeit not as dramatically. the most recent being the December, 1974-July, 1975 period when an advance of 52.67 was registered after the 10-day oscillator registered 6,357 on January 14, 1975. What this continues to reinforce to us is the healthy' technical condition of a mnturjng bull market which indicates higher equity prices. DownJone&rlad…u&tm'n12c09olilmm,.. er hb2f1,6….,49ned IS, or IS 10 be lol,,, 'V . 1I'l.c;1, , n ,r'or the solicitaTion of on offer 'S lOp.bl.1f)orr-nY tilth b't!H.HbtI'Th', A! ,n 'ef(!)rO' 'hd-b .e ITeHff9(QIT. i,ngeudarTonhele emaIthtle1di.Qr'c)rrtq!71I'heedremoferneolyr for the llEbArFtlEI!l9lubH-ARVE, of the sIatements mude he.eon Al'ly actlO'l t'e.'FoA6B&Lources of our .nformato be tael'l by the subscriber should be C\lnn!lmt!ivewIr\'delXJoc6l 8),allon Janney M0)il3r079colt. Inc, os a corporotlol. and liS officers or employees. may now have, or may later lake. pOSitions or !rodes In respec;1 loony securiTIes mentioned on ThiS or ony tuture Issue, and such posItion moy be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In Ihls or any olher Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as an ,nvestment odvlsor. moy give adVIce to lIs ,nvestment adVIsOry and othel cvslomel Independently of any slate'nents mode In thiS or on any other Issue FUr1her onformo;,on on any security mentIoned herein IS ovolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 24, 1983

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 24, 1983

Tabell's Market Letter - June 24, 1983
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBeR NEW VORl( STOCK EM;CHANQE INC MElllllaEA AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE dune 24. 1983 We find ourselves. this week. back at our desk. having spent a month sampling the delights of Norwegan fjords and French nouvelle cuisine. We did not. on this particular vacation. feel as out of touch-with-theU ;-Stockmarket-as we-havenpreviousiholidays.-Iargelyuet04he –wide.availabillty of the European edition of the Wall Street Journal and that old standby. -the paris Herald Tribune. However. although financial news and stock pl'lce tables were readlly available. they were not a substitute for daily price charts and the use of a computer console. We have thus spent the week tracing the market's behavior, since the end of May. and it may. perhaps. be a useful exercise to walk the reader through that process with us. Just before we left. the Dow-Jones Industriai Average had reached a high, on May 6, of 1232.59. The advance which led to this high had been just over 200 points. starting at the end of January. Over those 3t months, 72 trading days. the Dow had moved ahead almost 20 without anything in the way of significant interruption. This constituted. although not the steepest. the most protracted rise of the bull market. On the day of our departure. May 20. a 3.5 correction had taken place to 1190.02. the seventh identifiable correction since the cycle upswing began in August and the mildest of the lot. constituting only half the extent of the 7 downswing which took place in November of last year. A rally during the last week of May retrsced most of the ground lost. bringing the Dow some three points under its old closing high and taking the S 110 P 500 and other averages to new highs. The early part of June was spent in another 3.5 correction which posted a slightly lower low at 1185.50. Finally, in the weelli prior to our return. the uptrend resumed, and a new bull-market high of 12018.30 was posted on Thursday of last week. As we watched this process unfold in Europe. we confess we did not fmd ourselves surprised by –, -…e'Outcomeherehsd been'nll pereeptible-4esfP-Gf-long-tel'lll-'llOmentum…before-we-left-,-and.,-ev.en-1 when followed on the simple bar chart in the'Wall Street Journal. the Dow seemed to be tracing a typical double-bottom formation at the late May and early June lows. Moreover. on our return. despite the lack of followthrough shown in the past week. we could find. in the action since early May. no evidence of underlying deterioration. As we have pointed out in the past, one of the typical early-warning signs of underlying market weakness is deteriorating. breadth action. We have been monitoring breadth statistics closely ever since the rise began. and the new highs attained last week were confirmed by every breadth indicatr which we track. Both daily and weekly breadth indicies on the New York Stock Exchange posted new highs coincidently with the Dow. and. interestingly enough. similar indicators covering the American Stock Exchange and Over-The-Counter– markets not only confirmed the new highs but continued on to new peaks this week. We are thus happy to report'that our month-ago assessment of market conditions. those of a bull market still in its robust stages. remains unchanged. There seem to have emerged. we must admit. a few early and isolated symptoms of approaching' maturity. One is the lack of followthrough this week noted above. Another is the fact thd the base formed during the Msy-June double-bottom process does not really. in and of itself. appear to indicste significantly higher levels. although the long-term higher objectives alluded to in the past remain. Finally. there have emerged. amid the continued rising patterns for most indivi!1ual stocks. a few occasional serious technical breaks. of which Texas Instruments is perhaps the most notable recent example. In sum. however. we would judge the cumulative effect of all these factors to be no more than typical of the current market stage. Our colleague. Robert Simpkins. had some remarks last week concerning the steepness of the current rise. and. needless to say. we do not expect that rise to continue at. the same rate that chara- cterized the initial 10 months of the bull market. However, that the trend remains upward, albeit at a less steep rate, seems to be the continued indication of the 'weighCof evidence. AWTrs ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD. HARVEY. TABELL Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1237.58 S 110 P Composite (1200 p.m.) 170.11 Cumulative Index (6/23183) 2026.07 No statement or e)'preulon of opInion or any other motler herein COl'llelned 1, or 1510 be deemed to be, dHectly or indirectly, on oHer or the SOII(ltotion of an oHer to buy or sell ony security referred to or menlloned The meller Is presented merely for Ihe convenienCE of the subscriber While oNe believe tne sources of our Informetlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any OCI'on to be toen by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Inves/lgetlon ond mformatlon Jenney Montgomery Scali, Inc, as a corporation, end ,Is officers or employees, may now have, or may later toke, poIIOn!. or trades In respect to any secuntles mentioned In Ihl or any future Iue, and such position may be different flom any Views flOW or hereafter expressed In thiS or any other luue Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, whlCh 1 registered w,h the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give advlI.e to ,15 Investment adVISOry and othe, customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any alher Issue Further InForma/lon on any secunty men/lont!! herem IS available on request

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