Viewing Year: 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 05, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 05, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 05, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY OBS40 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, tNC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 5, 1976 It is now almost three years since we published a series of letters which attempted to assume a somewhat critical stance toward the one-decis ion school of investment and its emphasis ;;—–.;; . .onso-called-growth stocks. Since'that-time;,,-agood,deal 'of water has'passed -over the;dam-;– part of this taking the form of the 1973-74 bear market which effectively washed out the prices of many of the former growth favorites, in some cases to levels as much as 80 below their 1973 highs. That washout was sufficiently effective so that the majority of these Issues are today well below those highs despite the fact that the averages last month were closing in on their 1973 peaks. However, that bear market is now past history, and it should come as no news to anyone that we have, over the past 14 months, enjoyed a much-improved market climate. It is perhaps worthwhile, then, to examine a representative list of growth stocks in an attempt to rate their performance as investment vehicles during the bull market, more particularly during the consolidation which began last July following the bull market's first phase and on that bull market's second up-leg which began last fall. The following table presents some relevant statistics concerning 13 growth stocks showing, in each instance, their summer-1975 highs, their lows of last fall and their 1976 higt-sattained to date, together with a recent price. Percentage changes between the various points are also given. Lest we be accused of 20/20 hindsight in stock selection, it should be noted that the list was chosen and published in this space two years ago as a typical list of stocks in the institutional growth favorite category . Change July Fall Summer Fall 1975 1975 1976 1975- 1975- High .- -3v0ll-Pr9.sI-Jt!r . . — t;;;;;; -.I. Burroughs Corp llO Low Hiqh 34 -33 .34 76 -3-1-108 1976 Hi 1976 Hi Recent , -14 29 – ——2 '–42 38 102 -..– Coca Cola Co 93 60 -35 95 2 58 86 Disney Walt Prod 53 38 -28 63 19 66 58 Eastman Kodak Co 106 87 -18 ll7 10 34 107 IBM 227 176 -22 264 16 50 257 International Flavor Fragrance 34 22 -35 28 -18 27 24 Johnson & Johnson 100 78 -22 96 – 4 23 83 McDonalds Corp 58 42 -28 65 12 55 61 Polaroid Corp 43 28 -35 42 – 2 50 38 Proctor & Ga mble 99 81 -18 97 – 2 20 83 Sears Roebuck Co 74 57 -23 73 – I 28 72 Xerox 88 46 -48 68 -23 48 63 Avg -29 – 1 40 DJIA 885 818 – 8 996 13 22 It has been remarked somewhere that if the penalty for conventional wisdom in bear mar- kets is disaster, in bull markets it is mediocrity. Such, apparently, has been the case in this instance. Out of the 13 issues, 8 were, at last month's highs, below their highs of the previous July despite the fact that the Dow was some llO points or 13 above that peak. The average percentage change produced by an equal investment in each stock over the period would be something just under -1. A great partclthiSlnferior performance–;'as -the-tableshows, results from the'stocks' action during last fall, a period in which the majority of listed stocks underwent nothing more than a mild consolidation and during which period the Dow declined only 8 from high to low. Not one of the growth issues managed to decline any less than twice as much as the Dow and some dropped off 4 to 5 times as much. Conversely, as the next-to-last column of the table shows, they have outperformed the aver- ages since last fall and done so to an impressive degree. This may argue that the astute investor mIght have done well in selecting them recently as possible trading vehicles. Their inferior cycle-to-cycle performance as measured by their action between last July and recent peaks, however, suggests that the process of unwinding the growth-stock concept IS still underway and may continue well on into the future, not necessarily in the form of the 1973-74 type bloodbath, but in the form of a protracted period of relatively inferior Investment performance. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 972.29 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 98.84 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (3/4/76) 616.06 AWT/jb No statement or expreslon of opinion or any other matter herein contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indirectly, on offer or the soliCitation of an offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the converlence of the subscriber While oNe believe the sources of our Information to be relmble, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herein Any action fa be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investlgotlon and Information Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS offICers or employees, may now have, or may loter lake, positions or trades In respect to any SeCUrities mentioned In thiS or any future ISSUe, and such POltlon may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed III thl or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which 1 registered With the SEC a on Investment odvlsor, moy give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and other customers Independently of any tatements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further .nformatlon on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 12, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 12, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 12, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEHleR NEW VORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGE March 12, 1976 We are commenCing this week a series of letters dealing with the technical patterns ,f..'!2nd iviQ comments ual are Jndstri based s oaLleglry.oou.npatencd.h,rn)1i,c,!ajl.9fr.ai.ctsoures,s.wanithCtfnurttllhoer.ei.,ngfroourPJalt.'Ai'!;nNOei1ecijlce!!;ivi1d0uaSii'yisauells..I.s, ,- available upon request. -.. AEROSPACE. This group was one of the leaders in the first phase of the bull market during the early months of 1975 with most issues breaking out of major long-range accumulation patterns. During the consolidation in the latter half of 1975, relative strength became subpar and the stocks, generally, declined to prior support levels. Major issues can be considered for purchase on weakness and should be watched for upside breakouts signaling resumption of the major uptrends, these upside breakout pOints being 30 for Boeing (27), 50 for General Dynamics (49) and 63 for United Technologies Corporation (58).' AIRLINES. This group has recently begun to show above average relative action after moving sideways throughout most of the early bull market, and many issues are nearing upside breakout paints which would suggest them as prime recovery candidates. Northwest Airlines (32) has al- ready broken into a major uptrend with a long-term objective of 42-70 and UAL (26) is reasonably close to a major breakout at 30. Many of the other issues in the group have reasonably heavy overhead supply which may require further reaccumulation prior to their moving into positive up- trends. ALUMINUM. To date this group has lagged the performance of other basic-industry, cyclical stocks, but recent upside breakouts by three of the four major companies probably presage above- average relative action. Alcan (28) has an objective of 34-39, Kaiser (32) an upside,target of 52- – –74 and Reynolds'Metals (38) One of 48-82. Aluminum Co.- of America (51) isclbse to a major up- side breakout at 54. AUTOMOBILES. This group is typical of the heavy-industry companies which has provided leadership for the present bull market. General Motors (70) remains in a major uptrend with a price target of 78 which COincides with heavy overhead supply from 1971-73 highs. Ford (57) has recently moved into a major uptrend with a price target in the low 70's. Chrysler (20) has reached a short-term upside objective but could move higher long term. AUTOMOBILE PARTS. This area has demonstrated above-average relative action over the past year and, although in a few cases, such as Dana (23), short-term objectives are beginning to be reached, most issues can continue to be held. Eaton Corporation (25) continues to have a higher long-term objective. BUILDING MATERIALS. Patterns for this group vary depending on the particular area of the in- dividual company's business. Cement stocks generally have below-average patterns whereas companies in the plumbing and heating area have shown above-average relative strength. How- ever, in some cases, such as Crane (70), upside targets are being reached. Most other issues in the group are in minor uptrends ,and Johns Manville (31) has an attractive long-term pattern with upside objectives of 34-52. CHEMICALS. Major issues in this area have been market leaders over the past year, and, despite their having attained levels sub.stantially above their 1974-75 lows, most stocks possess s(7o5m) e. what higher upside price. ta- rgets, su-ch .as.1.26-145 for MonsantoJ!)ar1dJlr ,- — .. Union Ca, rbide COAL. These issues have recently been in a consolidation phase after moving substantially higher in the first half of 1975. Moderately higher objectives are readable in some cases, but, technically, most issues must be rated as holds rather than new purchase candidates. CONGLOMERATES. These issues took what must be counted among the more severe batterings of the 1968-70 bear market. Since that time, many have progressed nicely through reaccumulation phases and have either broken into long-range uptrends or are close to dOing so. Gulf and Western (26) has an upside price objective of 38-50, Loews (31) a target of 42 and Tenneco (27) oneof43. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 995.59 S & P Composite (1200 p.m.) 101.63 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (3/11/76) 620.75 AWT/jb No statement or expreulon of opinion or any other motter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or Indlrlctly, on offer or the sollcltotlon 01 on offer to buy or sell any security referred to or mentioned The molter IS presented merely for the converlenC6 of the subSCriber While we believe th!! SOUfO'!S of our Informotlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee Ihe accuracy Ihereof nor of the statements mode herein Any oct,on to be toen by the subSCriber should be bosed on hiS awn mvestlgallon and Information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, os 0 corpora'Ion, and lIs offICers or employees, 1'T'0y now have. or may later toke. positions or trades m respect to ony SeCUrities mentioned m Ihls or any future Issue, and such posilion may be different from any views now or hereafter epressed In thiS or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc. which IS registered wllh the SEC as on mvestment adVisor, may give odvlce to lIs Investment adVisory and othe. customers mdependently of any statements mode m thiS or 1M any other Issue further information on any security mentioned herein IS ovolloble on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 19, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 19, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 19, 1976
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———————————————————————————————————————–, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW .JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF' MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE March 19, 1976 For tbeth-i-r.d..-ti-I11i-l1-,r!-'c–H-nt-wee k s ,.t h – D- O Y…'–Jo–n es) n dust ria i Average rallied – —o–'– at mid-week from .. around the low 970's. This area is now sufficiently tested so that downsidepen-etratiofi;- if it were to – —- occur, would have some significance and would probably portend an extended pertod of attempted rebasing in the 950-970 range. In turn, were 950 ultimately to be penetrated on the downside, significantly lower levels could be foreseen. It should, however, be pointed out that the occurrence of such a correction, which would have to be placed in the intermediate-term category, this early in the cycle would be an un- usual one, and we would regard the eventual upside penetration of the 970-1000 range which has con- tained the Dow for the past few weeks as the more likely eventuality. We are continuing this week our review of industrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available upon request. CONTAINERS-METAL AND GLASS. Both American Can (34) and Continental Can (28) have impressive base patterns, although major trend upside breakouts have not yet been achieved. The stocks could be considered for purchase on weakness. COPPERS. Action in this group has been subpar throughout most of 1975 but, on a short-term baSiS, relative strength has picked up. Newmont Mining (29) has just moved into a major uptrend with an initial objective of 40 and Phelps Dodge (44), although faced with heavy overhead supply, could move higher. DISTILLERS. Action within the group has varied. Both Heublein (52) and National Distillers (25) have moved up sharply in recent months. The former, however, is approaching most readable upside objectives, while the latter suggests higher upside targets with a long-term objective of 40. Seagrams (30), by con- trast, has lagged and a period of protracted rebasing in the low 30's appears to be a probability. DRUGS. As a group these issues have underperformed the market since the beginning of 1975 suggest- ing, perhaps, that price/earnings ratios are still more than adequate. Most issues are currently priced .just below.mils.silLe-'Lyad-2!lPRly from theis 1972-74 tops,and,although some rebasing has taken place, we would regard an uPsidebrea-kotthissU;g;;s';;niikeindeedwm-e-issues-, despite genera-l – market strength, appear to possess a fairly high degree of downside vulnerability. With a few exceptions we would be inclined to avoid the group. ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. Patterns within the group vary. General Electric (52), in a short-term trad- ing range, has noved back to just above strong support at the 50-45 area. Heavy overhead supply at 60- 70 may slow any upside action, however. Westinghouse (16), a severe victim of the 1973-74 bear market, has begun its long-term rebasing process,and probably more work will be needed in the broad 10-20 range. Switchgear companies generally have impressive base formations but in most cases are just under overhead supply from their previous tops,and upside action may be slowed somewhat. Appliance companies have generally attractive technical patterns with above-average relative strength. Maytag (36), Sunbeam (26) and Whirlpool (31) all have higher readable upside objectives. ELECTRONICS. This is another group with mixed patterns, but with a few exceptions most issues are close to overhead supply soing back to the late 1960's. Ability to reach 30 would suggest considerably higher levels for Beckman Instruments (25). Recent ability of Texas Instruments (118) to reach the 120 level was impressive, and conslderably higher upside objectives appear to be readable for the stock despite its generous price relative to the general market. FINANCE COMPANIES. Substantial potential bases exist but there is no evidence, from a relative- strength point of view, that an immediate upside breakout will be attempted. Breakout pOints would be 38 for C.LT. Financial (33) and 33 for Walter E. Heller International (26). FOODS. Despite the relatively low volatility of this group, many issues have managed to outperform the market on both a short and long range basis. Action of meat packers has been particularly outstanding, , and Esmark (39), wh-ile approaching short-range objectives, still has.muchhigher long-termtargets. I I Borden's (29), although close to overhead supply, has impressive long-range portential as does CPC – – International (44), despite its recent backing and filling in the 40-50 range. Some issues have major up- side breakouts just above current levels such as 38 for Campbell Soup (32), 30 for Del Monte (24), 32 for General Foods (29) and 48 for Kraftco (43). FOREST PRODUCTS. Most issues in this group appear attractive technically. Boise Cascade (28) has an upside objective of 52, Georgia Pacific (54) one of 60-80 and Weyerhauser (45) one of 63. In most cases there is support just under current levels. GOLD. A few issues in this group have moved into short-term uptrends which would carry them into heavy overhead supply from past peaks. They would be appropriately consldered as sales on strength. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 980.79 ANTHONYW. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 100.71 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL Cumulative Index (3/18/76) 610.63 AWT/jb No statement or epresslon of OpinIOn or any other matter herein contained IS, or IS to be deemed to be, drrectly or Indirectly. an offer or the soliCItatIon of an offef to bl,lY or sell any seevrlty referred 10 or mentIOned The matter IS presented merely for the convef'lenc of the l,Ibscrrber While .ve bel,eve the 50l,lrces of oor Informa tlon to be relIable, we In no way represent or gl,larontee the OCCl,lrocy thereof nor of the statements mode herem. Any octlon to be taken by the l,Ibscrtber shol,lld be bo,ed on hiS own Inveshgat,on and InformatlO'l Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, os 0 corporation ond its officers or employees moy now hove, or may later loke, polhon or trades In respect 10 any SeCl,Ifltres mentioned In Ihls or any fl,ltore ISSl,le, and sl,Ich pOSitron may be different from ony views now or hereafter expressed In Ihu or any other ISSl,le Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, moy give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In Ih.s or In any other ISSl,Ie Fl,Irther Informotlon on any seC\Jrlty mentioned herem IS avaIlable on reql,lest

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Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – March 26, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - March 26, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08S40 DIYISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE – March 26, 1976 The Dow-Jones Industrial Average again rallied midweek penetrating on the upside the 970- conJ'lrrrtihis1000 range which has contained the Dow for the past few weeks. The ability of the advance/decline . breacfthfiidex to move woUld'i-eep -inta-d the second leg-of'the 'oulCiilarketWhlCh coritfnuerno -' . ' indicate 1030-1080. We continue this week our review of industrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available on request. HOTEL-MOTEL. Relative action in this group has been sharply above average. In most cases higher objectives are readable and the stocks may be held or bought on weakness. Hilton Hotel (18) and Holiday Inn (17) both appear attractive from a technical point of view. INSURANCE. The rotation of leadership apparent in this market phase has signaled the insurance group as it appears to be in a position to participate on the upside. Recent breakouts of Continental Corp. (49) and Travelers Insurance (31) both indicating higher levels should be noted. Also, ability of Aetna Life (27) to reach 30 and NLT Corp. (20) to reach 22 would break these stocks out of base patterns on the upside also indicating higher levels. With improved relative strength this \grouP'Ppears to be an interesting buy- ing opportunity at current levels. MACHINERY-AGRICULTURE. Deere & Co. (13) by far the best acting in this group indicates a long-term upside objective of 72-86. The ability of International Harvester (27) to penetrate 31 would inrlicate higher levels. Current technical pattern is neutral and overhead supply is present. MACHINERY-COMPOSITE. Although the group relative strength remains above average, stock patterns in this group are diverse. Constructive patterns would include Babcock and Wilcox (28), Briggs & Stratton (55), Bucyrus-Erie (26), Caterpillar Tractor (82), Cooper Industries (63) and Gardner Denver (30). Those stocks that have not completed potential base patterns would include AMF (20), Chicago Pneumatic (34), Ex-Cell 0 Corp. (19) and Foster Wheeler (27). This latter group should be watched for improvement in relative strength-' – . – – . — — – , MACHINERY-SERVICE. A number of stocks in this area have had substantial price rises from their 1974 lows. However, with the exception of Dresser Industries (70), these stocks have shown short-term deterioration. These would include Baker International (47), Halliburton (152), McDermott (44) and Schlumberger (76). Would watch this area closely to see if these short-term downtrends are arrested. MOBILE HOME BUILDERS. After reaching their highs in 1972, this group experienced a severe price correction. Since then,the stocks having corrected, have met support and are in the process of building potential base patterns. Fleetwood Enterprises (20) recently broke out of its base pattern indicating an upside objective of 30-40. Skyline Homes (21) also has a strong technical pattern reflecting minimal downside risk at current levels. Ability to reach 27 would break out stock on the upside from a four-year consolidation period. OFFICE/BUSINESS EQUIPMENT. Burroughs Corporation (103) long-term technical pattern is neutral. Ability to reach 115 would signify a breakout on the upside indicating substantially higher levels. Strong support is present in the 100-90 area. SCM Corp. (16)breaks out at 19 indicating long-term upside potential of 37. Digital Equipment (173) and IBM (258) are both in major uptrends with support present under current levels. Would continue to hold. Digital Equipment indicates a 200 objective on the upside and IBM indicates a potential 300-340. Control Data (25), NCR Corporation (28) and Pitney Bowes (16) sho';-;;;utral relative strength and feel time will be needed to improve patterns. This also applies to Xerox Corporation (60). Although a support area in the high 50's seems logical, time will be needed to reverse its major downtrend. OILS. The lOIlgterlIl.relative strengthof the oil group continue.! be below vrage. In most cases, the individual components of this-group readhed their lows iii 1974 and since that time have been in the process of consolidation. The potential base patterns ,of Amerada Hess (20, Cities Service (44), Gulf Oil (25), Shell (54), Standard Oil of California (34) and Union Oil of California (46) appear attractive. PAPE Obviously one of the most outstanding groups, the papers continue to justify purchase on minor weakness. Would consider Crown Zellerbach (46) with an upside objective of 72-80, Mead (29) an upside objective of 45-60, Scott Paper (23) with an upside objective of 36 (overhead supply is present in the high 20-10w 30 area) and St. Regis Paper (46) with an upside projection of 60. Continue to think International Paper (72) and Union Camp (89) at these levels are hold candidates. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 1004.09 S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 103.00 Cujulative Index (3/25/76) 614.63 RJS/jb ROBERT J. SIMPKINS, JR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL No statement or expression of opinion or ony other matfer herein contamed IS, or IS to be deemed to be, dlrl!dly or indirectly, on offer or the sollcllotlOn of an offer to buy or sell any seC\JPty referred to or mcnlioned The matter IS presented merely for the COnVellenCE of the subscriber While 'e believe the sources of our mformo han to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mode herem Any action 10 be token by Ihc subSCriber should be based on hl5 own inVestigation and Informallon Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, os 0 corporation, and Its off,eers or employees, may now have, or may loler tol-e, positions or trades In respect to any secufllles mentioned In thn or any future Issue, and such pOSition may be different from ony vIews now or hereafter expressed ' Ihll or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scali, Inc. which IS regIstered WIth the SEC os on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVICe to Its mvestment odv.wry and other customers Independently of ony statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further .nformOhon on ony security men honed herein 15 available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 02, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 02, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORI( STOCK eXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 2, 1976 This week concludes our review of il1dustrial groups and stocks. All comments are based solely on technical factors and further information on individual issues is available on request. RAILROAD EQUIPMENT Shortterm patterns in-this groupCrmaln constructlve,–Long-termpatterns 'in — ACF (51) and Pullman Corporation (36) are neutral. he ability of ACF to penetrate 62 and Pullman to penetrate 42 on the upside would indicate substantially higher levels. Strong support is present under current levels and feel purchases can be justified on weakness. RAILROADS. The railroad group, we feel, presents an Interesting long-term buymg opportunity for the investor. As a generalization, for the last four years these patterns have been in the process of consolidation. Strong support areas now exist for stocks such as Burlington Northern (37), Norfolk and Western (77), Santa Fe Industries (40) and Union Pacific (85). The ability to break out on the upSide would mdlcate higher levels. Chessle Systems (36) and Southern Railway (55) are In major uptrends indicating higher levels. RETAIL-DEPARTMENT STORES. Allied Stores (53) and Federated Department Stores (57) having broken out of long-term base patterns are approaching initial long-term objectives and we would continue to hold. Stocks which have also recently broken out indicating higher levels mclude r. C. Penney (59), Marcor (35) and Sears (76). We feel purchases on minor weakness in these securities can be JustIfled as minimum down- side risk appears present. SAVINGS AND LOANS. Although short-term action of this group has been favorable, heavy overhead sup- ply is present preventing stocks from breaking out of their long-term potential base patterns. Ability of Ahmanson & Co. (13) to reach 14, Financial Federation (14) to reach 17, First Charter (16) to reach 17, and Great Western (J8) to reach 24 would penetrate this area. Interestingly, although some overhead supply Is still present, Imperial CorporatlOn of America (J3) has broken out on the upside mdicatlng inll1al upside objective of 22. SOAPS. Colgate-Palmohve Co. (27) and Procter & Gamble (91) are both in long-term neutral patterns. However, at current levels, we feel Colqate-Palmohve With limited downside risk gives the investor a .-12.!trb'l1y-1ngQRP-.9rtunity than Procter & Gamble where considerable risk is indIcated if current trading range–ls-v-iolaiedonthe-dDWnSlde. -..; – .—– -, – STEEL. Although possible short-term tops appear to be developing, we continue to feel steel group af- fords Investor further upside potential. Stocks such as Armco (32), Bethlehem Steel (42), Carpenter Tech- nology (33) and Inland Steel (50) can still be purchased on mmor weakness. We would continue to hold commitments In Republic Steel (35) and U. S. Steel (80) at current levels. TEXTILES-WEAVING. The diverse actlOn of this group can best be shown through the technical patterns of the following three stocks. Improved short-term relative strength in Burlington Industries (29) has broad- ened Its potenUallong-term base pattern. However, it must be noted that heavy overhead supply is present m the high 30's-low 40's area and we feel more time is needed. Cone Mills (52) has already broken out of a substantial base formation and has, 10 fact, reached long-term upside objectives In the mId-SO area. j. P. Stevens (24), on the other hand, has recently broken out of a base formatlOn mdicatlng a potential upside objective of 44 and we feel on minor weakness stock should be purchased. TEXTILES-APPAREL. A number of stocks such as Blue Bell (44), LeVI Strauss (49) and Oxford Industnes (24) have performed very well techmcally stlll indicating higher levels. Farah Manufacturing (JO), Hanes Corporation (23), and jonathan Logan (J8) have neutral long-term technical patterns and would watch for improvement in relative strength to justIfy purchase. TIRE-RUBBER. Firestone (23), Goodrich (27) and Goodyear (22) are in short-term uptrends but are encoun- tering overhead supply above current levels. Would hold commitments in stock but defer purchases until long-term patterns clarify. TOBACCO. Reynolds Industnes (62) continues to be the best-acting security In this group with an up- side objective indicating 80-94. We feel purchase can be justified on weakness. Both Amencan Brands (41) and Philip MorrIS (56), In long-term neutral patterns, reflect minimum downsIde risk and on any Im- – , provedrelative strengthshould be consIdered forpurchase. 'i.. -.. ……., .-,;; – . UTILITIES-ELECTRIC. The common denomInator for stocks in thIS group are short-term uptrends WhICh indicate sllghtly higher levels into eXlsting heavy overhead supply. Do not feel stocks warrant purchase at these levels. UTILITIES -GAS. Relative strength action In this group remains neutral. Amencan Natural Gas (37) and Peoples Gas (36) show mInImum downside risk. With Improvement 10 relative strength, we feel purchases ca n be initiated. UTILITIES-TELEPHONE. A logical way to participate m this group is American Telephone and Telegraph (56). The long-term technIcal pattern has for the past ten years been In the process of consolIdatIon. Recently the stock broke out In the mid SO's from a short-term base indIcating hIgher levels. AbIlIty to reach 60 would Indicate a long-term upside objecl1ve of 88-120. Dow-jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 987.88 S & P Compo (200 p.m.) 101.85 Cumuiatlve Index \4/ J/rb) bO. 53 ROBERT j. SIMPKINS, jR. DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TAB ELL RjS/jb No stotement or expreulon of op'nion or any other matter herem contolned 15, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or the sollcltollon of on offer 10 buy or sell any security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the onverlence of the subscriber. While we belIeve the sources of our Informa- tion to be relloble, we in no woy represent or guarantee the occurocy thereof nor of lhe stotements mude herem Any actIon to be token by the subscriber should be bosed on h,s own mvestlgotlon ond mformotlon Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc , o a corporatIon, and Its offIcers or employees, may now have, or may loter toke. posItIOns or trodes m respect to on'( seCUritIes mentIoned In this or any future Issue, ond such p051hon moy be dIfferent from ony VIews now or hereofter expressed In Ih,s or any other Ilsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh,ch IS regIstered WIth the SEC as on Investment adVIsor, may g….e odvlce to Its Investme'll odvlsory and othel customers Independently of any statements mode In thIS or In any othe- nsue Further informatIon on any security mentIOned herein IS avaIlable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 09, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 09, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 09, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW VOAK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MEMBEFI AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 9, 1976 Something is happening; that is for certain. Certainly the euphoria of the first three monthscof 1976'whenthe stock maret, it seemed- to-the casual- observer, -d-id,almost'nothing -bub.– go up, has been totally dissipated. At Thursday's close of 977.09, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average had declined 3.2 from its March high of 1009.31, the sharpest correction it had under- gone since the almost 200-point move from the December low of 818.80. Previously the steepest drop had been a 2.87 decline over two trading days in the middle part of Ma rch. Prior to this week's drop, the market had posted its first significant rally attempt which failed to make a new high, the advance from March 30 through April 5 peaking out at 1004.09, a level some five points below the March peak. If something is, indeed, happening, the problem is to assess its serious- ness and to determine appropriate investment action. Stock market action has been noted by many observers often to resemble the shape of a parabola, with the steepest rises coming at the begin- ning of bull markets, these rises slowly losing momentum and finally ceasing to make new peaks as the market turns down — at first slowly, and then accelerating to the maximum rate of decline at the downswing's end. The arc-like nature of the action oj the Dow since early last December is apparent to anyone who cares to look at a daily chart. The picture clearly presented is that of an advance moving ahead at a decelerating rate. The question, of course, is whether the top of the parabola has as yet been reached. Avg. Chg Breadth Date 12/5/75 D!IA 818.80 Chg. No.Days Per Day Index 779.7 – 2/4/76 976.22 — –Z125!76 94707 19.23 1788 41 .46 820.4 14 .1-3-826,,4 3/11/76 3/24/76 1003.31 1009.31 0.88 0.60 11 .08 823.7 9 .07 822.5 4/5/76 1004.09 -0.52 8 -.06 822.2 Statistically, the market's loss of momentum can be documented by the table above which shows each of the successive minor peaks in the Dow since the advance began in December. As can be clearly seen, on each minor rally the average rate of advance per day has slowed and even, on the last rally, turned negative as the advance failed to attain a new high. The table also shows the action of our daily breadth index, which introduces another disturbing factor into the equation. As can be seen, the high in breadth was reached six weeks ago back in February, and two succes- s ive rallies, one in early March and the other in late March, both of which produced new highs on the Dow, failed to move the breadth index to new peaks. This is the sort of potential diver- gence that has signaled bear markets in the past, and its record is of sufficient accuracy that it bears watching. Two factors, however, must be pOinted out. Such divergences have lasted a good deal longer than six weeks on prior occasions before they were finally destroyed by new highs being attained in the breadth index. It should also be noted that breadth, at its current level of 817.4, has declined very little from its February peak, so that a market reversal at this stage could very easily carry it to new highs. There are, moreover, numerous arguments which mitigate against a substantial decline at this time. One is the simple one that the short space of three months is an awfully short time tofor a major-market cycle have run its-course.CCAnotheris-the fact that few-oistributional patterns have appeared in individual stocks, -and, in those cases where minor tops have formed, downside objectives are, in many instances, already being approached. This is particularly true of many of the basic-industry stocks, which had been leaders of the advance, and V'ere probably. at re- cent peaks, over-extended on a short-term basis. It is obvious, we think, that clouds are appearing on the horizon and that they should be watched carefully. Clouds in the past, however, have been knovm to dissipate 'ithout producing rain, and we suspect that the investor can afford to await more evidence before bolting for the storm cellar. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 978.27 101.18 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL r; ELAF IELD, HARVEY. TABELL Cumulative Index (4/8/76) 601.12 AWT/jb No statement or expreulon of opinion or any olher matter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or indirectly, on offer or Ihe SOllCllollon of on offer to buy or sell C1ny security referred 10 or mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the converlenC'EO of the subscrober. While e beheve the sources of our mformo- tlon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the slolements mude herein Any action to be token by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and mformatlon Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, os a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, moy now hove, or may loter toke, poslhon, or trades In respect to any seC1.Jrllles mentioned In thiS or any future Issue, and such poslhon may be different from any Views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other asue Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may gIVe adVice 10 Its Investment adVisory and other customers Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In ony other Issue Further Informal Ion on any security mentioned herern IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1976
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– .. –.—— -, TABELL'S MARKET LETTER ,I \ ,I i – I g)e/aldd, .Y& akII 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF fill/ley l1,Om'''!1 fIC/ott .A11. MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICA.N STOCK eXCHANGE April 15, 1976 Wall Street is an industry given to nicknames. The billion-dollar companies with un- broken growth records which dominated the market in the early 1970's quickly became glamour stocks or the- hifty fifty' – The ba-s iclndUstrY-coinPariie'SwhlCli;a Cthe1974 76'-lfull'm'ai-K'etafenowbelfigdubbed .—- ' smokestack stocks. The table below documents the performance of a representative group of these stocks versus the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. As can be seen, all of them have outperformed the Dow on their rise from their late 1975 lows, and the bulk of them have dramatically outperformed the average for the entire bull market beginning in late 1974. Late' 74 Late '75 Recent Chg. Chg. Alcan Aluminum Allied Chemica1 Aluminum Co. of Amer. Bethlehem Steel Internationa 1 Pa per Low 19 24 26 23 32 Low 19 30 34 30 50 High 28 45 51 48 80 from' 74 47 87 96 108 150 from I 7S 47 50 50 60 60 Kennecott Copper 25 27 37 48 37 Kimberly-Clark 18 26 47 161 80 Monsanto Co. 40 69 98 145 42 Phelps Dodge 26 31 45 73 45 Republic Steel 22 26 41 86 58 U.S. Steel 36 58 89 147 53 Westvaco 19 25 48 153 92 Weyerhaeuser 24 35 50 108 43 DJIA 585 784 1009 73 29 I–I!-…,.– Since late March, however, the smokestacks have been producing fewer fireworks. The 'follo'wing table shows a '';c;ntTow-for thee-saine stocks-, the percentage retracem,mt of the 197576 move to date and possible downside objectives for the stocks, together with the percentage which would be re- traced if these objectives were attained. It should be noted that the objectives are not offered as fore- casts but as fairly pessimistic downside targets from a technical point of view, based on the patterns which have developed so far. The comments are based on technical factors only and further Information is available on request. Recent Possible Low Retracement Objective Retracement Alcan Aluminum 26 22 23 55 Allied Chemical 38 47 32 87 Aluminum Co. of Amer. 46 29 43 47 Bethlehem Steel 41 39 34 78 Internationa 1 Paper 70 33 60 66 Kennecott Copper 33 40 29 80 Kimberly-Clark 38 43 34 62 Monsanto Co. 87 38 76 76 Phelps Dodge 42 21 39 43 Republic Steel 34 47 30 73 U.S. Steel 79 33 64 80 Westvaco 41 30 34 61 Weyerhaeuser 47 20 44 40 It seems to us the above statistics explain a great deal of the market's current malaise, and.also,'why serious general market weakness.at this-stage.maynot be that)ikely a.possibility. A nor- mal technical rule of thumb Is that a retracement of a given move runs between one-half and two-thirds of that move. Most of the smokestack issues have to date retraced somewhat less than that, suggesting that further correction is necessary before their advance can be resumed. However, the downside objectives given, on average, indicate nothing more than a normal two-thirds retracement and in no case do they pro- ject prices below the late-1975 lows. What we are suggesting, in other words, is that, by and large, the distribution which has taken place in the issues so far indicates nothing more than minor downswmgs which would be limited in extent. This further suggests that the issues in question, once having undergone the normal corrections indicated by these minor tops may well be in a position to resume their upside leader- ship in the next phase of the market cycle. Dow-Jones Industrials 980.48 S & P Compo 100.51 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/14;76) 589.40 AWT/jb No statement or expreSSion of opinion or any olner matter herein contolned IS, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or Indlrelly, on offer or the sOlltltollon of on offer 10 buy or sell ony security referred 10 or menhoned The mailer 15 presented merely for the COnVeftienCiS of the subSCriber While e believe the sources of our Informa- tion to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herem Any action to be taken by the subscflber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Informollo'l Janney Montgomery Scoll, Inc, as a corporation, and Its officers Of employees, may now have, or may later toke, positiOnS or trades, respect to any seCUrities menhaned m thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed m th or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh.ch IS regIStered With the SEC as an mvest'nenT adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment advlry and othel CUstomers Independently of any statements mode In thIS or m any other Issue Further ,nformatIOn on any security menhoned herein IS ovoilable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 23, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 23, 1976
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–… TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD. PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 08540 DIVISION OF MEMBER New YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK eXCHANGe April 23, 1976 We have attempted in recent issues of this letter to emphasize two concurrent themes. We have tried to pOint, first of all, to some of the signs of loss of momentum in the stock market -aninosuCggestttiat-deve16pmeri1s'inthlSareWOulilc6iitlriue to-Dearw,Hiiling-.We-havealSotrled— to suggest, on the other hand, that excessive bearishness at this stage of the game prior to the emergence of further negative evidence might tum out to be somewhat premature. The second part of this reasoning was vindicated, at least temporarily, by the market action of last week, as the Dow moved ahead to a new cycle closing high of 1011.02 on Wednesday, a lthough the intra-day peak of 1017.71, achieved on Thursday before profit-taking set in on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, just failed to match the March 24 intra-day high of 10 18.03. The Industrials' high was confirmed by new closing and mtra-day peaks in the Transportation Average. Thus, by the only objective standard, the 1974-76 bull market remains, at least as of midweek, In effect. This shouB be hardly surprising to those who have Studied market histor. A correction of intermediate-term proportions after an upswing is barely three months old is an event almost wlth- O'lt historical precedent. Furthermore, as we have suggested in the past, the most logical upside target on the Dow centered on the 1030-1080 range, and, while the lower part of that range has been approached, the upper part has yet to be attained. Thus, further strength, although probably on the same sort of irregular basis that has prevailed since mid-February, appears a reasonably likely prospect. What the market strength has unfortunately not done to date is dispel a number of clouds which have begun to appear on the horizon since the market's rise began decelerating at the end of February. One of these clouds, which we discussed at some length in our letter of two weeks ago, – – – – I-ha s been.thedjsa ppointingactionf .breadth .mdices ,most.of. whichseac.hed .theirpea kJoack.in February and have failed to move to new high territory since despite a series of three successive new highs on the Dow. As technical analysis has grown in popularity, the use of breadth has re- ceived increasing recognition, and indices based on advance-decline statistics now appear in many publications and are watched by a great number of investors. We do not feel that this increased popularity decreases the value of breadth observations one iota. The fact that breadth is lagging the Dow is a simple indication that fewer stocks are advanCing and this is a warning that should not be ta ken lightly. A number of factors, however, should be pOinted out. The first is that there have been often lags of as much as six months, where breadth has turned down before reversing itself and mcv- ing on to new peaks. A perfect and recent example is the mild consolidation which characterized the second half of 1975. At that time our own breadth index dropped off from a July high of 807 to a low in mid-September of 777, a drop of some 30 points. Nonetheless, when the market finally turned at the end of 1975, by mid-January, 1976, breadth had moved up and achieved a new high. What should further be underscored is that the decline in breadth in 1976 so far has been relatively mild. In 1975, as noted above, the breadth index moved down by some 30 pOints from high to low. The decline in 1976 to date took the index from 827 in February to 815 a week ago, a total drop of only 12 points. Some five of those pOints have since been recovered so tha t a seven-pOint rise would erase the potential divergence which exists. Such a rise could easily be produced by five or six strong trading days and, were this to occur, the divergence which has been worrying us aand others over the past month would instantly evaporate, and the likelihood of further prolongation of the upng, from tlmep'olnt of viewat'ieast, Would be greatly increased. – – – – It is not our mtention with all of this to encourage wide-eyed optimism. The potential breadth divergence does still exist and, as we suggested last week, distributional patterns are be- ginning to appear. However, almost uniformly, they are of a minor nature and are appearing in only a small number of stocks. The emergence of such patterns at the mature stage of a bull market is not an uncommon phenomenon and, absent further evidence of weakness, should be of little concern other than to holders of the stocks involved, who may want to act on them based on their own invest- ment objectives and trading philosophy. Evidence on the general market that has appeared so far, however, consists more of potential cause for future worry rather than incentive to immediate action. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p. m.) 1003.38 ANTHONY W. TABELL S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) 102.63 DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (4/22/76) 605.75 AWT/jb No tolement or expreslon of oplOlOn or cny other motier herein contOlned I, or IS 10 be deemed 10 be, directly or mdlrectly, on offer or the OIU;llot,on of on offer to buy or sell any securrty referred to ar mentioned The moiler IS presented merely for the COnVellenCC of the subscrlber While we believe the sources of our Informahon to be reliable, we In no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of the statements mude herein Any action to be token by the subsrlber should be based on hiS own Investigation and information Janney Montgomery Scolt, Inc, as a corporation, and lIS offlers or employees, may now have, or may later lake, POSitionS or trades In respect to any secunlles menhoned In thiS or any future 15SUe, and such POSition may be dlfferenl from any views now or hereafter expressed In this or any other Issue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS registered With the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVice to Its Investment adVISOry and othel cvSlomea Independently of any statements mode In thiS or In any other Issue Further Information on any security mentioned herein IS aVailable on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 30, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - April 30, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER – 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY 08!!40 DIVISION OF MEM8ER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE, INC MEMBER AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGE April 30, 1976 I)s ifficu)ttosaywith any certaintyat this pointjust how the past two months of trading clear– will finto stock -markethlStoryonce-the1;Tsticai-patt;mtiniiliY-becOme Perhaps the onfy-O- guess that can be ventured at this time is that it will be remembered as the period when the magic1000 figure on the Dow-Jones Industrial Average finally lost its magic. In the past eight weeks, the 1000 level, which many people had firmly believed would signify a new era when finally achieved, has been penetrated on the upside on five separate occasions only to be repenetrated on the downside on four of those occasions. The torpor of the last penetration, which occurred at midweek this week, left little in the way of confidence that still a fifth move back down into the 900's might not be in the offing. The present stock market era can be dated with some accuracy now as having begun on February 25, when our daily breadth index scored its high and the Dow posted a peak at 994.57. Since that time, as we have pomted out with perhaps sickening regularity, breadth has failed to score a new peak despite successive new highs in the Dow, and our Cumulative Index, reflecting the action of all NYSE isses, has also drastically underperformed the averages. Recognizing these and other signs of loss of m6mentum, many of our colleagues have seized upon the opportunity to take a somewhat bearish stance. Our own position, as readers will be aware, has been to pOint out that, while market action during the period can hardly be described as good, it is hardly all that bad either. Let us try to quantify a few of the phenomena that have actually taken place since February 25. For one thing, volume has decreased dramatically. During the period of the meteoric rise from December 5, 1975, to the end of February, average daily volume was 25.7 million shares, with a rec- ord 44.5 million share day being recorded. Since the late February benchmark date, it has decreased to under 22 million shares, and, since March 29, it has virtually dried up to an average daily figure of–1R. 7 milUonshares. ,Whileall thtswasgoingol1hQ'Never ,JllOr ,t()QkWj3Sa RPrenJIysrnging hands on the upside than the downside. Volume 0;'\ days that the market advanced averaged i3. 2 million shares and on days when it declined, only 20.9 million. As measured by QUOTRON, the average trad- ing day during the period saw 9.7 million shares of upside volume and 9.3 million shares of downside volume. If the market has spent more trading activity going up than gOing down, it has, in contra st, spent more time on the downside. It advanced on 20 days during the 45-day period in question and declined on 25. Similarly, on average, more stocks have been going down than up, although hardly by a shattering plurality. The average number of advancing stocks for the 45 days has been 702 and the average number of declining stocks 777. However, in very few cases has a decline been serious enough to drag a falling issue back to its 1976 low. On 38 of the 45 days, new highs for 1976 have exceeded new lows, and, on average, each trading day has seen seventy-two 1976 highs versus only fourteen 1976 lows. In terms of average percentage change for all stocks, the underlying figures show noticeable but not overwhelming weakness. On 28 of the 45 days, the average downside percentage change was greater than average upside percentage change. However, the actual levels of percentage change in each direction were fairly close. The problem with all these numbers, as we said above, is that they are bad but by no means overwhelmingly bad. Contrary to popular opinion, market forecasters do not like being on the fence, and we confess we would be a great deal happier if we could take an unreservedly bearish or bullish positlOn. Our assessment of the numbers at this time just does not permit us to do so. – On'the other handtime is slowlybeginningto runoutfor themarket insofar.asupside ac.,. -….-,- tion is concerned. Periods of trading within a restricted range such as the one that has existed since late February do not, historically, last all that long, and, if the current trading range is not to be ul- timately viewed as a penod of distribuhon, it will have to be penetrated with some decisiveness on the upside before too much more time has elapsed. If this does not happen, the desultory action, which we have tried to enumerate above, will have to be, m our view, regarded with a bit more peSSi- mism than we find ourselves now able to derive from it. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) S & P Compo (1200 p.m.) Cumulative Index (4/29/76) 599.47 AWT/jb 999.29 101.88 ANTHONY W. TABELL D ELAFIEW, HARVEY, TABELL No stotement or c)(preUlon of opinion or any other matter herem contolned IS, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or indirectly, On ofler or the soliCltotlon of on offer to buy or sell any sec\lflly referred 10 or menhof1ed The matter IS presef1ted merely for the COf1verQef1CC of the! ,ubscrlber. While we believe the sources of our mforma flOf1 to be reliable, we In no way represef1t or guaraf11ee the accuracy thereof nor of the stotemef1ts mude herem Any action to be taken by the subSCriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and Infarmatron Janney Montgomery Scali, lf1c, os a corporation, ond Its officers or employees, moy now have, or may later take, posltlof1S or trades In respect to ony securities mentlof1ed In thiS or any future Issue, and such position may be different from any views now or hereafter expressed In thiS or ony other Issue JOf1ney Montgomery Scott, Inc, wh,ch IS registered with the SEC as on Investment adVisor, may give adVICe to Its Investment adVisory and at he. CUSTomers mdependently of any statements made In th.s or In ony other Issue Further mformatlon on any security mentioned herem IS available on request

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Tabell’s Market Letter – May 07, 1976

Tabell’s Market Letter – May 07, 1976

Tabell's Market Letter - May 07, 1976
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TABELL'S MARKET LETTER 909 STATE ROAD, PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY 081540 DIVISION OF MEMBER NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. INC MEMBEA AMERICA.N STOCK EXCHANGE – May 7, 1976 In contrast with the normal content of this letter, we will not be able to concern ourselves – i n this'issue with'the current.stockmarket.-This .isnot possible-since theletter.is.being..written,,. some three days prior to the issue date. This, in tum, is due to the fact that, at the time readers receive it, the writer, along with those of his associates who would normally prepare these comments in his absence, wlll be m WIlliamstown, Massachusetts, attendmg the First Annual Seminar of the Market Technicia ns Association, an organization which the writer has the honor, this year, to serve as Pres ident. In conducting the Seminar in Williamstown, the MTA is fulfilling one of the purposes stated in its Constitution, to provide meetings and foster the interchange of material, ideas and informa- tion for the purpose of adding to the knowledge of the membership. The Association is pleased to have as its honored guests many noted leaders of the securities mdustry among the 150 who will be attending, and we look forward, as we always do, to meeting with our colleagues and exchanging views and ideas on the ever-changing and expanding techniques involved in our profession. The MTA, moreover, which is now three years old, has a number of other worthwhile pur- poses and some of them, we think, are worth enumerating here. One, for example, again quoting from the Constitution, is to establish, maintain and encourage the highest standards of profession- al ethics and competence among technical analysts. We think this is important. One of the less attractive characteristics that has been known to appear from time to time among investors is that of greed, and there have been those, unfortunately, who, sometimes under the guise of technical analysis, have catered to that greed with claims to prescience that they — and, indeed, all mOr- tal men — lack. Thus, the Constitution contains the following language. The analyst shall not make statements which he knows or has reason to believe are inaccurate or misleading. He shall, in particular, be careful 11—-…–toavoidleadinghisaudiencet0believe.thathis.technically.der-lv.edvlews of future stock price behavior reflect foreknowledge rather than estimates and projections subject to re-examination and, as circumstances may dic- tate, to change. The analyst shall not make statements concerning the current tech- nical position of the stock market or any of its components or any of its as- pects unless he can demonstrate that such statements are reasonable and consistent in light of the available evidence and of the accumulated know- ledge in the field of technical analysis. New departures in technical anal- ysis as well as modifications of existing techniques or concepts are to be fully documented as to procedure and rationale. Another stated purpose of the Association is to educate the public and the investment community to the uses and limitations of technically-oriented research and its value in the formu- lation of investment declsions. As we all know, the value of investment analysis is, these days, being called increasingly into question. The MTA stands squarely for the fact that effort in money management is, indeed, not worthless and, again, its Constitution adumbrates this principle as follows. Moreover, the tendency of price trends to persist and of investors' behavioral patterns to recur enables the technical analyst to recognize and antiCipate potentially favorable or unfavorable investment environments. Indeed, the recognition of extremes in investor psychology is one of the technical market analyst's unique contributions to the field of investment techniques;- . – .. '- liThe Association asserts, in sum, that the technical analysis of — — ….. stock price movements and of the supply-demand relationships underly- ing them is a valid, indeed an indispensable, element in the formulation of a 'reasonable basis' for investment decisions. 11 In summary, we think that the MTA has in the past and will continue in the future to make valid contributions to technical analysis in particular and security analysis in general. We are proud, therefore, to have played a part In the organization over the three years of its existence, and we look forward to continuing to do so. Dow-Jones Industrials (1200 p.m.) 993.31 S & P Compo (1200 P.m.) 101.59 ANTHONY W. TABELL DELAFIELD, HARVEY, TABELL Cumulative Index (5/6/76) 596.27 AWT/jb No statement or expression of Opinion or ony other moiler herein contamed 15, or IS to be deemed to be, directly or mdlrectly, an offer or the solicitation of tm offer to buy or sell anI. security referred 10 or mentioned The matter IS presented merely for the convef'lenCt of the subscrlber While we believe the sources of our Information to be fel'ob e, we ,n no way represent or guarantee the accuracy thereof nor of Ihe statements mude herem. Any ocllon to be IQen by the subscriber should be based on hiS own Investigation and 'r'lformallol1 Jonney Montgomery Scott, Inc, LIS (J corporation, and ,ts officers or employees, may now hove, or may kl!er toe, positions or trodes In respect to ony Securities menlloned In Ihls or lny future usue, ond uth position moy be different from ony views now or hereofter epreHed In thiS or any other ISsue Janney Montgomery Scott, Inc, which IS regl!otered with Ihe SEC as on InveStment adVisor, moy give adVice la lis Inveslment odvlsory and olhe CU'tomers Independently of ony statemenlS mode In Ihls or 10 (lny other Issue Further InformotlOn on any security mentioned herein IS available on request

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