Viewing Month: April 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1966

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1966
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Siock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 1, 1966 With heaviness at the beginning of the week and a sharp rally on the last two days, the , l Dow-Jones Industrial Average ended last week at about the same level it began it. It is now fourteen trading days since the Index attained an intra-day low of 905.40, and twenty-three days have elapsed 'duringuwhi11r.tirltetitlhalsheld in an area bounded by that low on the downside and an intra-day peak -of 943'31 It certainly is not unlikely that this area may constitut a base formation from which a new advance will commence. Currently, the upside objective of this base would be 962-970 if 940 could be reached. However, further backing and filling within this trading range, such as was seen last week, could broaden the potential base pattern further. – UNION BAG-CAMP PAPER CORPORATION Current Price 48 Some six weeks ago this letter discussed Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt Common Stock 1. 72 3. 60/0 73,086,465 7,609,975 shs. a t some length what we conceived to be some of the attractive investment characteristics of the paper industry. In line with the thoughts contain ed in that letter we subsequently suggested that Union Bag-Camp Paper Corporation (which will Sales – 1965 283,600,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1965 3.16 Current Range – 1966-63 55 1/4 -311/4 be changing its name to Union-Camp Corporatio shortly) would be added to the Quality and Long Term Growth sector of our Recommended List if its support was reached. This took place As we noted in February, the history of the e 't aper industry has hard- ly been an exciting one. Ten years ago, in 1956, by ply increased demand, the industry embarked on an expansion spree sed available capacity – – well -beYOndthen-'CUretlt-needs. was felt on product prices due to rela e ti 1 – ,- w gJ ing rates in the indlE try. Thus, after a decade of increased sales, for the first time. However, ther e s stocks barely topped their 1956 levels 'yJ a ounds for optimism in last year's statistics. In 1965 for the first time, t n in sales was greater than the gain in physical product- ion. In other words, a r e ars the industry has now again reached the point where de- mand is pushing on avail capacity and price structure is again firming. This can be docu mented by price incre es effected during 1965 in a wide range of paper products. With this new pressure on industry capacity, considerable expansion is scheduled for the 1966-1968 period. There are those analysts who profess to see in this a repetition of the 1956 debacle. This letter does not believe this to be the case. The 1966 expansion is, we be- lieve, starting from a much firmer base than the one of a decade ago and we believe that growth in paper usage will be at a faster rate than the experience of the past ten years. We loOk, therefore, for continued firmness in product prices and feel that higher sales, plus more efficient capacity, can lead to widening profit margins and worthwhile earnings gains. All this should apply with redoubled force to Union Bag-Camp which is historically one of the lowest cost producers inth.eindustry and which has scheduled one of the more ambi- tious expansion programs an outlay of some 10-6 -million over the 1965-1967 perio The company is a leading integrated prOducer of kraft paper and board, shipping containers nd multiwall bags. Along with most companies in the industry, a good earnings gain was shown in 1965 with per share results reaching the 3.16 level, a 230/0 gain vs. a 10 increase in sales. 1966 results could well show increases of a similar magnitude and for the long term the expansion program;which is expected to add 100 million to sales by 1970, holds a romise of further dramatic-earnings increases if margins, as we think will be the case, can e maintained or increased. From a technical point of view the stock recently broke out on the upside of a long trading range between 30 and 42, in which it had held from 1960 to 1965. The minimum upside objective of this base appears to be close to 100 and recent market weakness has brough he stock back to strong support and also to the downside objective of the short term top form ed. The stock is recommended for purchase in accounts seeking long term growth. ow-Jones Ind. – 931. 29 ANTHONY W. TABELL ow-,Tooes Bails – 251 66 WAT.STON & CO INC AW'J.ArB mfLr)r;et letter Is published for your COIlVe-nl(.llce nd mformatlon and IS not an offer to sell or R soIleltRtion to buy ftny lIfturibes discuued The mldiOiiit!ailllvns obtmned from source'! we btheve to t… reliable, but we do not guRrantee ItS aCCurar WRlqton & Co.. Inc and offirers. directors or eml'loye!8 may have an mtere8t m or purchR.Se and sell the securIties refel red to herem. WNSOI

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 07, 1966

Tabell's Market Letter - April 07, 1966
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W—-a–l-s-tIoncn–&–C–o–. INVESlMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAl BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 7, 1966 With volume increasing'to'iJO; 5'6;'OOO shares, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday broke out of the range at 910-938, which had contained it for twenty-four trading days. About the best upside objective that can be read at present is 970, although the pattern could still brtaden to indicate higher levels. Rallies following low volume bottoms of this nature generally tend to be selective and we would continue to stress the action of individual stocks one of which, recently added to our Recommended List, is reviewed below. BELL & HOWELL COMPANY Currenf Price Current Dividend Current Yield Long Term Debt 2.121/2 Cum. Conv.Pfd. Common Stock 47 .40 0.85 25,326,000 95,215 shs. 4, 044, 220 shs. – -,during.the-early 1960's concentrated on diversification through a program of acquisition and internal growth. More recently, the company has stressed new product development in three major areas – photographic products, business equipment, and electronic instrumentation. Sales – 1966-E Sales – 1965 Earn. Per Sh. 1966-E Earn. Per Sh. 1965 205,000,000 185,700,000 1. 80 1. 51 1. During Jhis period, Bell & Howell's earnings have remained in a relatively narrow range. However, it is interesting to pOint out that while the company earned 1. 05 in 1961 versus 1965 estimated earnings of Mkt. Range – 1966- 63 48 – 20 1/4 Including 12 non-recurring gain. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT – Bell & new Swinger black and white camera. It 1. 39 hig,lh,duri nl!fl-recurring gain) the t t'tW!ri was 69 7/8 versus f 1 as manufactured Polaroid e company, running at full cap city, i!l. of 2. 5 share 10 earmngs th1S year. Bell & OW four broad areas amateur ph g h, t ic . ''.ld generate P ph1C products busmess 1S dtVlded lOtO . – market, military optics, and the camera field, this is a a' rna ortion of total volume. Bell & Howell has recently introduced a new – e cameras and projectors, compatible with Eastman Kodak's new cartrid I di uper-8 system. These are much simpler cameras to operat providing a picture twice right and projecting a larger image. Audio-visual products and tape recorders are ot fields in which this division is represented. Division sales have doubled in the last five years, and are expected to increase to 90-95 million in 1966 from 78 million in 1965. ELECTRONIC INSTRUMENTATION – Bell & Howell entered into this industry with the acquisition of Consolidated Electro-Dynamics Corporation in'1960. Over 50 of sales of thi division are made to the federal government. Increased co.mpetition for government con- contracts should cause growth to be somewhat slower than other sectors of Bell & Howell's operation. However, industrial and commercial sales in this divisim continue at record levels,and. the division should continue to provide a solid earnings base. BUSINESS EQUIPMENT – This division appears to offer the greatest growth potential for the company. – Through, the acquisition of Ditto, Inc. ,and the -formation of the Micro-Data Division, both in 1962, Bell & Howell entered into the business equipment field. Both sales and profits for the last two years have improved substantially. Bell & Howell has an exclusive license from Xerox in the micrO-image area. Although no earnings contribution from this process is expected in 1966, this process appears to have good long-term potentials in open- file record keeping. With the benefit of new products and growth from existing lines, a 10 to 15 increase in Bell & Howell's sales to 205 million is estimated this year. Although new product deve ment costs are expected, they should be offset by increased profit margins. Estimated 1966 earnings should approach 1. 80 per share with a good foundation existing for substantial earnings gains in years ahead. Technically, the stock indicates an intermediate-term objective of 60 followed by a longer term 80. Good support is present in the 42-40 area. Dow-Jones Ind. – 945. 76 ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Rails – 262.56 WALSTON & CO. INC. AWT'RIS -amb This mllTket Tetter IS published for your convenience TId information and IS lot an offer to sell or R solicltatlon to buy Rny lIt'Curities dlseussro. The In fonnntion wn… obtRmed from we to Lt' but we do not gunrflntee Ito; a(eurR(Y. Wl'Illiton & Co. Inc. find Ils officers. dlr(;Ctonl or cmI'lo)l.!eo; mny have an mterest In or purchase Rnd sell the SeCl'rltIC'I refcrrcrl. U. helt!ln. WN301 '

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 15, 1966

Tabell's Market Letter - April 15, 1966
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-,ih Walston &- Co. —–Inc —-INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange OthHlth'nfijS.'I1Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 15, 1966 Following the April 5th upside breakout by the Dow-Jones Industrials from the 910- 938 range, which had contained the index for five weeks, the Average reached a temporary top and reacted to an intra-day low of 932.51 on Tuesday. This was precisely where one would have expected it to meet support and, indeed, the latter part of the week was charac- terized by a good deal of strength with an intra-day high of 957.40 being reached on Friday. The big news, however, was volume. Thursday's trading activity of 12, 980, 000 shares was the third highest single day's figure on record and the highest volume day in the history of the Exchange on which the market closed up. — wa-Sl'lot,all-thatmonumentalba-st-Octoberrc-when— — volume was expanding, this letter pointed out that the level of trading activity was hardly surprising. We suggested at that point that the only sensible way to look at volume was in relation to the number of shares listed, a statistic that had been showing a dramatic increas over the years. We pointed out that if volume reached the same level in relation to shares listed than it had in 1946, 1955 and 1962, 20,000, ODD-share days would be commonplace, and if it reached the same level at tained in October 1929, total trading volume would be 146,000,000 shares. Actually, the true significance of the high level of volume has gone largely unnoticed. If history is any guide, the continued ability of the market to continue to generate a high level of activity is the best insurance against any immediate major decline. Let us analyze this a bit further. There is a tendency on every major upswing in stock prices for volume to expand sharply.H has done so frsm 1962 to date. Subse- ! quent to that low, the lowest monthly volume of N. Y. S. E. d' 6 ,890,000 shares in September of 1962. Since that time the highest figure.3!9h s b 191,524,000 shares last month. If activity continues at this level ana r new high will be made. A similar expansion of volume has ii\J&'er ajor rise in the past. The following table which shows the low h e f e upswing and the date of high — – – monthly volume reached during the–pe' -1- 0 – – te– t. – It shows that in no case In I'Ie;orded ' , market history has a high in ume. In two cases, the hi h in 1 nrh.1ials been reached prior to a high in vola d in the Dow were reached in the same month. In every other 'n 1e volume led the peak in the Dow by times ranging from one to ninete,. Stock Mkt. Low Sub nt – Monthl Volume April,1897 anuary, 1901 Nov. 1903 January, 1906 Nov. 1908 August, 1909 Sept. 1911 April, 1912 Dec. 1914 November, 1916 Dec. 1917 October, 1919 Aug. 1921 July, 1932 January, 1929 January, 1936 March, 1938 October, 1938 April, 1942 January, 1946 June, 1949 January, 1951 Sept. 1953 – January, Oct. 1957 January, 1959 Oct. 1960 March, 1961 June, 1962 March, 1966 (to date) does not include May, June, July 1933 Subsequent High DJII June, 1901 January, 1906 October, 1909 September, 1912 November, 1916 November, 1919 September, 1929 March, 1937 November, 1938 May, 1946 August, 1952 April, 1956 January, 1960 November, 1961 Lead Time 5 o 2 5 o 1 8 14 1 4 19 12 8 , What the above strongly suggests, of course, is that the high for the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on the present upswing has not yet been seen. It is true, as the volume expansion shows, that we are in an advanced stage of the upswing and there are enough symptons of deterioration in the present upswing to make us not want to count on any substantial new advance. History does show us, however, that expanding volume — at least as long as it continues to expand — is a positive factor. Dow-Jones In d. -947.77 Dow-Jones Rails -263.16 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. AWTamb This market Jetter UI published for your convenience Itnd mformatlon and if! not an offer to sell or A solicitation to buy any aeeurltles dlsettASed. The tnsenfonnntlon was obtaaned from sources we beheve to be reluthle, but we do not RUl\rantee Its accuracy, Walston & Co. Inc. And Its officers, dIrectors or tm'IJ'IOyceB may have an interest In or purchASe and the securities referred to herem – , , ,,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 22, 1966

Tabell's Market Letter - April 22, 1966
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TABEll'S MARKET Walston &Co. —–Inc —– ……6u .INVESTMENT -BANKERS … MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Siock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges lETTER OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS April 22, 1966 The rally from the March 16th low of 905.40 in the Dow-Jones Industrials resumed this week. Monday and Tuesday had seen the Dow index sell moderately lower on reduced volume with Tuesday's intra-day low of 934.02 providing the second test of the support area in the middle 930 IS. From this support, a sharp rally ensued on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the index to an intra-week high of 961. 91. As is the case in an advance of this nature, it is possible by reading the base formation in different ways and on different charts to arrive at alternative upside objectives. The most pessimistic reading of the February- March base would call for a target somewhere in the anda j1.lst 1!nger the whJch was formed at the January-February top. It appears likely that, as the index reaches this level, a number of attempts at penetration will have to be made before a move through the overhead supply into new high territory can be expected. A more optimistic reading of the base pattern indi- cates the possibility that a modest new high might be achieved. In any case, a move to the supply area and a further test seems the most likely possibility. The pattern of the Dow-Jones Rail Average appears to be quite different. As we have previausly pointed out, the carriers, at their February peak of 274. 33, had reached their most optimistic long-term upside objective. The subsequent top formed was small,indicating no more than the low of 239.92 reached in March and, likewise, the base formed at that level indicated no more than the high already reached this week. Probable action for the rails is the formation of a new pattern in the broad 270-240 area with individual issues showing di- verse patterns. Utilities continue their slide and, at the far off the 137. 15 low reached in early March. 138.30 were not too 0 With the market climate relatively favorable, a t a t e 'eing, the main invest ment consideration becomes the selection of individu ck . 1S end, our recommended list has been sharply revised of late. Five rea b – levels suggested and were added to the list during the week ending Mar 2 whe e market made its low at 905. -;)' -we-e-k aml-was;-therefore;added. – We- are also adding Air Reduction nd i 01010 our Capital Appreciation list and Park Davis to our High Grade list, th'il close tOday. The remammg stocks then sug- gested have r herewith cancelle e eying levels, and the original recommendations are ded Lists will be available from your Walston Accoun Executive next week. , During the week 0 Ma 5th, two stocks were added to our Speculative Capital Appre- ciation list. They were d Compan (193/8), added at 18, and Chris-Craft .(27 1/2) added at 23. Unlike a great ny 0 e ower priced speculative issues apparently in favor today, both stocks have a reasonsbly good recent level of earnings and are statistically quite cheap in relation to those earnings. Budd, whose per share results reached 1. 96, a six-year recor is priced at ten times 1965 results, and Chris-Craft which reently reported 2.07 for the year ended December 31, 1965, is priced at thirteen times those results. For the first quar ter of 1966, Budd reported earnings of 54 vs. 49 in the comparable 1965 quarter despite a lower level of sales. Chris-Craft, with the benefit of improved margins; is expected to show improvement in its 1966 results. The great bulk of Budd's business is the production of auto body components with sales at record levels. However, we feel the speculative appeal of the stock lies in the company's rail'lVay business. The compa!ly is a leader in the prodll;ction of passenger cars used by the railroads and mass transit industry. The production of rapid transit passenger – — cars could be one of the great growth areas of the late 1960 IS. Budd has historically been a pioneer in new concepts for mass transit cars. It is currently working on four experimental high-speed cars for the Commerce Department's Northeast Corridor project and is working on the development of experimental turbine cars shortly to be tested on the Long Island Rail- road. Budd's leadership in this field could begin to payoff in future earnings and, despite dependence on auto production levels, the railway division will be an increasingly important contributor to earnings. . Chris-Craft now derives some two-thirds of its revenues from pleasure boats and ma- rine engines, some 15 from automotive supply and 13 from television station operations. The pleasure boat business shows some signs of again coming to life after some years in the doldrums, and Chris-Craft's 1966 backlog is considerably above that of a year ago. The com- pany is the owner of television stations in Portland Los Angeles and Minneapolis and revenues should be boosted by increased advertising rates. The stock, in our opinion, represents an attractive speculationcon-the1boarting!industry and, to a lesser degree, the growth of tele- vision. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dour-Iones In d 949 83 WALSTON & CO INC Do'iihl.a ''t&bf.litr'lRt-'from 1I0)1r'(t!S .. .Ind mformatlon and IS not .m offer to sell or 1\ solicitation to buy any Ile'eUrltiea dlscU8Sed. The Inbeheve to to! rehflble, but we do not guarantee Its nccuracy Walston & Co, Inc. and Its officers, Clrcetors or en1..Jloyees may have an Interest in or Purchase and selt the I eferred to herem. A WTamb WN30'

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 29, 1966

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 29, 1966

Tabell's Market Letter - April 29, 1966
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TABELL'S Wdlston &- Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL fUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS MARKET LnURT.n!…L April 29, 1966 The past week was one of general decline in the stock market. The Dow-Jones Indus- trial Average reacted from an intra-day peak of 961. 91 On April 21 to reach an intra-day low of 927.22 on Thursday. The Rail Average dropped off even more sharply from a peak of 264.23 to a low of 249.73. Essentially, the decline was unsurprising. The Industrial index retraced, roughly, two-thirds of the advance from March lows and brought the average back to strong support in the 930-920 area. Encouraging was the fact that the volume on the retracement dried up noticeably, reaching a low of 7,270,000 shares on Monday, whereas advancing volume had tended to approach or exceed the 10 million share level. It is likely that, after some further backing and filling, -the intermediate term a d v' a n- c -e-in the averages wlllresume. However, this will be far less important than the action of individual stocks. This letter has long held that we are in the advanced stages of a bull market which is a kind phras for being in the early stages of a market top. The euphemism is necessary because the word top has fearsome semantic connotations. Actually, much failure to understand the nature of the stock market stems from not recognizing that market tops and bottoms are not mirror images of the same thing, but are, in fact, quite different. Upside reversals take place quickly and dramatically. Tops, On the other hand, begin their formation long before the avrages start to go down and tend to build up gradually over a period of time. Generally, many stocks and industrial groups top out early while others continue their advance. As time goes on, more and more stocks have already reached their peaks and are in downtrends, whil fewer and fewer are still advancing. Essentially,we have of a stage today, and this is really what the analyst means when he says too el ill be vicious or that selection of individual stocks is the key to ace. As readers of this letter are aware, we have ntlya a number of stocks to various sections of our Recommended List. a oom for them we are removin from the list 11 issues.rWe have tabulated be e pro performance of these issues sinc Decemb.er 31,1964, .the!oase.date me thei, P!lrs..ent age change since that time There recommendatio the Dow-Jones Industrial er'\ttre- period. Of these recommendations, 77 ave advanced and 21 ed list itself, a ava' b r 1 e ormance record of the list, as well as t e curren ur Iston Account Executive. Obviously, no implication is made that such res c 1 tained by purchase of issues in the Recommended List, or that similar results wi b tained by purchase in the future. Commissions are not included Pric /31/64 or Date Recom. Current Price Change /0 Change DJIA same Time Period CAPITAL APPRECIATION LIST Beaunit Corp. 37 55 49 7 Canteen Corp. 19 (6/29/65) 31 1/2 66 11 First Charter 241/8 14 1/2 -40 7 Korvette 40 23 5/8 -41 7 Perkin – Elme r 24 (adj) 47 1/4 97 7 Swingline 18 3/4 (adj.) 381/2 105 7 SPECULATIVE-CAPITAL APPRECIATION LIST Audio Devices 17 1/8 37 1/2 119 7 Great West Fin. 11 1/2 8 . -31- 7 Hewlett Packard 22 5/8 50 121 7 Mohasco 141/8 251/4 79 7 Seaboard World Air. 6 243/4 313 7 Average 76. 1 7.4 It will be noted that of the issues being removed, most are up sharply, while three have shown substantial declines. Removal of these three is intended to reflect the fact that many investors will wish to use, or may have already used, losses in these issues to offset capital gains for income tax purposes. Actually, the issues in question appear rather sharply over- sold and it is possible that the investor may wish to defer taking losses until later in the yea Dow-Jones Ind. 933. 68 Dow-Jones Rails – 253. 682u( .. n ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. IOC. '0;ThiS market letter IS pubhshed (or your conventence and mformatlon and not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any &eCUfitlea discussed The in formation was obtained from source'! we bLiLeve to be rehable. but we do not gunrnntee Its f1ccurncy \VRlston & Co. Inc and Its officer! dlro..ctors or cmplo)eE'S may have an mtereHt in or purchase and sell the securities referred to herein. WNSOl \

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