Viewing Month: October 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 04, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 04, 1965
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Walston &- Co. —-Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNIClPAl BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET LEnER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS Octob'er 4, 1965 We began last week's letter with the paragraph, Last week's market was characterized by a maximum amount of activity and a minimum amount of progress. That sentence is equally descriptive this week. A week ago the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at 929.54. This week, after rising sharply on Monday and giving up most of its gain on heavy volume on the latter four days, it closed at 929. 65. The big news, of course, was the volume. Wednesday's trading total of 10,600,000 shares was the sixth highest single day's total on record. Actually, to those who follow vol- ume statistics rather . the 10 million-share level and, indeed, in onesense, this'figure is disappointingly low. Trading volume, since the early 1950 's, has been in a rather steady uptrend channel. Indeed, if this channel continues, and there is no reason why it should not, it becomes a vir- tual certainty that before the end of the 1960's we will see a number of days on which trading volume surpasses the 16 million-share record of 1929. Yet volume taken by itself is meaningless. In order to draw meaningful conclusions it is necessary to relate volume to the total number of shares listed. Few realize the rapid- ity with which this latter figure has grown. It reached a billion shares for the first time in 1929 and required 20 years to double in 1949. In only 7 years, by 1956, it had doubled again to 4 billion shares and, six years later in 1963, it had again doubled. By the end of this year close to 10 billion shares should be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Of course, the point is that trading volume, has grown at no- where near the same rate. The 10 million shares which ch g d ion Wednesday consti- tuted about 100th of 10/0 of all the shares listed. In y a t e has been a curious tendency for peak volume days to run at twice this fi so . olume had reached the same level in relation to shares listed that sa . 19 ,1955 or 1962, 20 million shares would have been traded, not 10 millio . if 1 reached the same level attained . e ' 46millionshares…..–Thefollowing table shows clearly the fact that V;l stocks has been declining steadily for 20 years. It shows the i a 25-year moving total of NYSE volume at selected points since 19, e m of shares listed at the same time. The last column expresses e 'w I ume as a percentage of the listed shares, and shows the clear downtrend . c. Date 25- ek Volume (Tho nd Shs.) Shares Listed Total Volume as of (Thousand Shs.) Shares Listed March,1946 217,000 1,619,000 13.4 March,1951 298,000 2,391,000 12.4 April, 1955 385,900 3,284,000 11.7 March, 1959 465, 900 5, 106, 000 9. 1 May, 1961 565,200 6,663,000 8.4 October, 1965 678,000 9, 863. 000 6. 9 The point of all this, of course, is that while the recent high trading activity is perhaps newsworthy, it is probably necessary to discount it a good deal in analyzing the position of the market today. Essentially, there remains no change in the basic philosophy expressed by this letter last week. The inability of the market'to sustain any worthwhile gains strongly suggests the desirability of utilizing strength to put together cash reserves for a future buying opportunity The basic keynote of the market in the near future will undoubtedly be selectivity. To this end some three weeks ago by wire to Walston offices we noted two cbanges in our recommended list. Electric Storage Battery was switched into Eaton Mfg. 'and Norfolk & Western into Chesapeake & Ohio. We also noted in the wire that International Minerals & Chemical having reached its upside objective of 60, was being removed from the list. We continue to feel that this stock is a good long term holding, but that some consolidation will probably be required before another upward move. Other cbanges will be made in the list in the light of market conditions over the next few weeks,.'' ….., ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 929. 65 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 222. 93 ThIS market letter Is published for your eonventent!e !\nd Information and Is not Rn otter to sell or a soIleltation to buy an)' aeeurltles dlacussed. The In formation was obtained from sources we to IN reliable, but we do not ItURrantee Its aCCUfaC). Walston & Co. Inc. Rnd Its offif!ers. dlrec-tors or employees may have an Interest In or purehase and sell the Bef!UratleS referred to herein. WN301 & 1.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 11, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 11, 1965
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Walston &Co. – Inc – – – – – INVESTMENT BANkERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONOS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKETLETTER October 11, 1965 The Dow-Jones lndustrial Average this week made two more assaults at new high territory. The peak intra-day high had been 944.96 on September 29th. On Tuesday, the intra-day top was 942.49 and Friday's intra-day high was 944.08, just below the former pea These figures compare with an intra-day peak of 944.82 in May. On the basis of closing prices, the Dow reached 937.88 and then backed away on September 27th. It exceeded this by reaching 938.70 on Tuesday before selling off. Friday's close was 938. 32, and the high close in May was 939.62. As the Dow is repeatedly thrust back as if by some invisible force at approximately the same area, there develops a tendency on the part of.many investors to ascribe some mystical significance to the phenomenon of a new high or failure to make a new high. Many amateur technicians, for example, seem to feel that every new high is a breakout and is an immediate assurance of higher prices. Would that technical analysis were as simple as all that! If every stock in the Dow were to go up half a point tomorrow, we would have a rise of some six points in the average and a decisive new peak. It is hard to believe that this woul be a particularly earth-shaking event. What matters a good deal more than playing guessing games about new peaks in the averages, it seems to us, is a recognition of what kind of general market pattern appears to be developing. Recent events have done nothing to dispel our feeling that the basic pattern for 1965 will be that of a trading range with wide swings back and forth in the averages. A further characteristic of such a market will be extreme selectivity with a great many stocks moving in a direction counter to that of the popular selection, we con- tinue to believe, will be more important to investment succ s 0 On xt year than guesse about the market. To this end we are making some changes in 0 com e a list, accepting profits in some stocks which have moved upward da', and, in one case,suggesti'ri that losses be taken in a rather disappointing r mer our Quality and Long Term Growth List, General t a' anuary 1964,-reached-a high of 120 1/4 earlier this week – wit it6tside objective of 130. Although the stock's quality merits its conti e .g long term investors, we are removing it from the list for new b i 0 t i being. Newmont Mining Corp. has been in our recommended list and J. P. Stevens & Co. since October, 1961. Both of these stocks have ached their upside objectives, Newmont having reached a high of 587/8 vs. an u ential of 59-62,and Stevens having reached 58 1/2,just about its immediate objective though there is possible longer term 72 in the pattern. We are, nonetheless, suggesting acceptance of profits in both issues in intermediate term accounts. Litton Industries is a more recent recommendation, having been suggested in February,1965. At its high of 118 7/8 it had reached its first upside objective and accordingly is being drop- ped from the list. Fruehauf Corp. , originally entered our Low- Priced list in 1958 and was later trarlsfer red to the regular list as it moved up in price. The stock appears to be in a slow uptrend, but due to present lack 'of immediate potential, we are removing it. Also being removed is Raytheon which has reached its nearer term objective on Friday's strength due to a sharp earnings improvement. However, the stock is now in an area of heavy overhead supply. We have lost patience with one rather disappointing issue in our Low-Price Specula- tive list – International Packers, which had repeatedly been suggested at various prices over recent years. We are recommending that losses be accepted in this issue and that it be switc ed into other issues on our speculative list, such as American Bosch Arma or Audio Devices. We have repeatedly suggested in this letter that new purchases be made during period of weakness. We are, therefore, suggesting buying levels' for three issues which we believe currently attractive. They will be added to our list if these buying levels are reached. The issues are National Acme (45 1/4) to be bought at 40, United-Carr, Inc. (56) to be bought at 50-48 and Dorr-Oliver (27 3/8) on the American Stock Exchange, to be bought at 24-23. A new issue of our recommended list will be in the hands of your Acco,unt Executive at the end of this week. ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Jones Ind. 938.32 WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 228.87 Thill market letter 18 published for your convemence Ilnd Information Rnd 18 not an offer to sell or R aoIieitatlon to buy Rny eeeurities dlaeusaed. Ttle In formation Will obtained from sources we blheve to k reliable, but we do not guarantee Ih accurncy WRiston & Co.. Inc. Rnd its OffiCf'T8. dlrectol'1!l or employees maY have an mterest In or purchasf' and sell the securities referred to berem ., WN-SOl -,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 12, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 12, 1965
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– Walston &Co, Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL SON OS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S RECOMMENDED LIST October 12, 1965 This edition of our Recommended List gives long term technical upside objectives and indicated support levels in cases where such levels exist. An asterisk in the Upside Objective column indicates either that the objective is unclear, or that the stock has not yet broke ouLoLits.base.1.or.ma.tion ….Wher.e a stock is recommended mainly for yield and moderate price appreciation, the present yield is noted below. QUALITY & LONG 10/11/65 ity Alum. Co. Amer. 68 1/4 ArneI'. Can 561/2 ArneI'. T & T 671/4 Chesa. & Ohio 773/8 B B A B Gulf Oil 585/8 A Upside-Sup Obj. port 65 60-77 50-45 65-62 100-150 70-65 63-92 55-50 TERM GROWTH CloseQualUps-ide-,-Sup 10/11/65 Int'l Paper 31 1/8 A Obj. port 30-28 Nat'l CashR. 77 1/2 A 144 75-70 Radio Corp. 485/8 A 57 Reynolds Tob.44 1/4 A Yield 4.20/0 Royal Dutch 41 1/4 A Yield 4.30/0 PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- Upside Sup- 10/11/65 J!I. Obj. port Amer. Hosp.S 367/8 A- 53 ArneI'. Potash 381/4 B 60 34 Atch. Top.S.F. 33 1/2 A- Yield 4. 80/0 Auto.Canteen 263/4 B 42 22-20 Beaunit Corp. 45 3/8 B 57-60 40-38 34-1 /.8-B–42 Clevite 503/8 B 57-100 40 C1uett Peabody 787/8 B 90-95 Copperweld S. 343/8 B 47-52 30 Crowell ColI. 41 1/4 B 48-64 34-32 Denver, R. G. 20 3/8 B Yield 5.00/0 Disney, Walt 50 B 65-100 47-45 Eaton Mfg. 54 B 78 50-45 EI Paso N.G. 21 1/8 B Yield 4.80/0 First Charter 25 36 23-20 Gen'l Dynamics 48 56-88 42-40 Hewlett Pack. 37 1/2 B 41-59 Illinois Central 60 B Yield 4.00/0 Inter. Motor F. 32 1/2 B 45 29-27 Kansas City So. 40 A- Yield 5.00/0 Koppers Co 65 1/2 B 80-100 Close Qual- 10/11/65 J.!L Korvette 373/4 B McDermott 45 B McGraw Ed. 39 A- Mesabi Tr. 141/4 Metro. Gold. 41 … Revlon 441/2 A- Reynolds Met. 44 1/2 B Riegel Paper 22 1/8 B Schlumberger 681/2 A Scovill Mfg. 56 B Shell Oil 66 A Signode 297/8 A- Southern Rwy 55 1/2 B Spartans Ind. 383/4 Sundstrand 30 1/8 B Swingline 56 B United Fruit 26 1/4 B Vulcan Mat. 20 3/8 B Wallace & T. 37 1/4 A- Warner Bros.Co 377/8 B Upside SupObj. port 46 32-30 58-80 40-38 60 35-30 Yield 5. 60/0 34-30 56-94 40-35 34 18 90-130 65-60 65 50-45 75-120 60 40-50 25 Yield 5. 00/0 44 44-70 25-23 70 30 20 28 43-63 48 30 LOW-PRICED Close Qual- 10/11/65 Amer.Bosch 23 3/8 Audio Devices 20 1/8 B- Camp. Chib. 4 1/2 Foote Mineral 20 5/8 B Gt. West Fin. 12 3/8 Ling Temco 30 Upside SupObj. port 40-50 20-18 30-40 15 26-29 19-17 18 35-62 25-22 Close Qual- Upside Sup- 10/11/65 J!I. Obj. port Microwave 20 1/2 B 38-48 Mohasco 22 B 29 Nat'l Can 26 1/4 Pacific Pete 10 1/4 B 50-60 B- Sbd.Wld.Air 111/8 C 14-20 9-8 Univ. Match 18 B 28-57 Varian Assoc. 24 1/4 B 37 Thls Bulletin 1; for our ronvcm.. nr, .,nll In(ormallon And Il not lin oft'r to wll or n sohclt-ttlon to hu !l'cuntll.-'S The mformRtlon WitS obtained from bourC( '-'(. hdllvc 10 .. lellIlhlt hut W' do not )luarltnt'.' Its o\('(,UI,I(,) WIII'lton & Co., Ine an.1 it'l oRinr.., (lnectors or emtllot'es rna) hRve an Interest In or purch,u,c I\n41 M'Il tht 'CI'Ulltll''! ref. rJt'4! to hl'rln WN-9i6

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 18, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 18, 1965
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W—-a–l-s-tIoncn–&—-C–o-. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET lETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS October 18, 1965 In reaching a new intra-day high of 948.30 and a new closing high of 942. 65 on Mon- day, the Dow-Jones Industrials finally confirmed the action of the host of other market in- dices that had earlier moved into new high ground. The achievement of new peaks did not set off any pronounced buying wave. Indeed, the Dow churned around on heavy volume on the next two days with advances and declines about equal, and then declined Thursday on reduce volume. Friday's rise to an intra-day high of 945.07 brought the Dow to a point just below the – . Since the Rails w'ere-already in new high territory, Monday's action yielded a Dow Theory buy signal. It should be noted that this buy signal reversed a sell signal given last -. 'points-lower tlieDow'Theory. – – – Despite a series of grudging moves into new high ground, the action of the averages over the past month has been relatively sluggish. The Industrials on September 16th closed at 931. 18, a figure not too different from Friday's close of 940. 68. Despite this sluggish- ness, the action of individual issues has been outstanding with well over 100 new highs being registered on most days. All this does is to reinforce the theory reiterated ad nauseam by this letter that investment results will be achieved not by guessing the Averages, but by se- lection of individual issues. Technical analysis, of course, can be of a good deal of value in such selection. One of the functions of technical work has been described as the bird-dog function. In other words, a close inspection of price patterns will often point out a group of stocks which had hitherto been rather uninteresting, but which seem to a good deal above their current levels. A case in point can be found in t e lction of Machine Tool stocks. Over the past two to three years many of t h a ave forming bases whic even when read conservatively, indicate possible Ie s muc 100 above present prices. In recent trading sessions, on pro re e action, a great many of the stocks have broken out on the upside of these . Th ,in this case, technical work has .p.inj;ed out an area .n ,!ion of fundamental radically enough to justify the ti t yz!Wther the Machine Tool industry has change projections. In this particu r pear that the outlook has, indeed, changed and changed radically. h a i ndustry was, formerly, among the most cyclical of all trades, and growth, . t la eO's and early 1960's, has generally been erratic or nil. Yet here, as in so ma 0 industries, technology has drast ically altered the picture in the forrn of so-called or numerically controlled machine tools. The N1C tool is, simply, a device whereby a machine tool operates under the control of a numerical medium, usually paper tape, rather than under the control of a human operato It is, therefore, one more aspect of the automation revolution. N1C tools are nothing new — indeed, they have been on the market for some ten years. What is new, however, is the mass market which these machines appear to be achieving for the first time. Industrywide,probabl 20 of tools now being shipped are numerically controlled, and many companies have backlog figures that run to 50 and 60 N/c machines.One analyst has estimated that 75 of all existing machine tools in the United States could I;e economically replaced by N/c machines. This surge can dramatically alter the outlook for the industry. Among the effects which may be felt by the machine tool companies are the following (1) Cyclical fluctuations will be miti gated or eliminated, as tlie basic demand for N/c equipment will probably not be tied to cap- ital spending. (2) Replacement cycles will be dramatically shortened. N1C machines to be economic must be used on three shifts and they will, therefore, undoubtedly wear out faster. (3) Both dollar volume and profit margins should increase due to the relatively high cost of N1C machine tools compared to conventional tools. (4) Competition will be lessened. Forme ly, machine tools were an industry in which almost anyone could compete. Now, technological know-how and resources available only to the larger companies, will be required. Attractive investment opportunities in the industry abound. Sundstrand (32 1/2) which has been on our recommended list for some time and, as mentioned last week, the high yield ing National Acme (49) will be added on price dips. Other attractive companies appear to be Cincinnati Milling (67 1/2) and Ex-Cell-O (55 5/8). Dow-Jones'Irid..- 940 68 Dow-Jones Rails 232. 95 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. mc. This market letter IS pubhshed for your convenience rtnd InfOTmfltlon and IS not an offer to sell or A soliCItation to buy any seeuTlties diSCUssed. The information was obtAined from soure!'.!; we bdu!ve to ) reliable. but we do not guarantee Its accurac). Wnl'lton & Co.. lnc. and lts officers. ihrectors or employees may have an interest in or purchase and sell the seCUrities refened to herein. WNS()l –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – October 25, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - October 25, 1965
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–Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS I FTTFR n October 25, 1965 The market strength continued last week with new highs in the Dow-Jones Industrial average being reached on four out of the five trading days, culminated by a peak of 959. 39 on Friday before light profit-taking set in. This was close to the current upside objective of 960, although the Rails, which reached a peak of 238.70 this week, can be read to a possible long term 255. However, a survey of all listed stocks shows that a great many leaders have reached upside objectives and may be in need of some consolidation. As usual, the best pro- tection which can be afforded against investment risk at these levels is to make sure that portfolios are restricted to issues with a favorable outlook. Such a stock is described below. – SUNDSTRAND 'CORPORA TION – – Current Price 33 3/4 Last week's letter outlined at some length what Current Dividend 1. 00 we conceive to be the exceedingly bright future for Current Yield 2. 90/0 the machine tool industry. We discussed in some Long Term Debt Hi, 850, 000 Common Stock 1, 657, 908 shs. detail the growing acceptance of numerically con- trolled or NI C machine tools – – the automatically operated tools which go so far to reduce costs and Sales 1965-E 90,000,000 improve productivity. Sales 1964 82,400,000 Earn. Per Sh. 1965-E Earn. Per Sh. 1964 2. 15 1 . 83 One of the most attractive participations in the growth of NI C tools appears to be Sundstrand Corpo ration, which has been in our recommended list for some time. anly prominently iden- Mkt. Range -1965-64 343/8-18718 tified with the mac e which constitutes some 250/0 oGfi ent ut produces other items which appear to hold promise for earnings ove next years. Sundstrand's entry in the a e tool field is the Omnimil, which currently is estima ted to 30 machine tool shipments. Backlog, however,–continues-to-increase and t 0 ore, cts a considerably-higher percenta-ge of N/c machines than do . te possible that machine tool sales under this stimulus could incre se at e e a 1 0 to 150/0 annually between now and 1970, and, as automatic machine r – r proportion of total sales, profit margins, which have already sho i ease since 1963, could continue to widen. Sundstrand, ho v ates in other areas which appear to have growth potential. One of the most promisi the company's aviation division, most of whose sales originate from one item – a co nt speed drive which is used to stabilize the flow of power from the engines to the aircraft electrical system. Through technological superiority Sundstrand has managed to achieve the lion's share of the market for these devices. The company is pres- ently selling to every producer of commercial jets, and each jet requires six units — one for each engine and two spares. The units wear out fairly quickly and replacement volume is si zable and will continue to grow as the number of planes in the air increases. Sales of constant speed devices to the government are also important, but are becoming less so as commercial sales continue to grow. Still a third Sundstrand product with considerable growth potential is the hydrostatic transmission used in the construction, material handling and agricultural equipment indus- tries. This transmission has the ability to vary sp'eEOds with constant engine turnover and with no clutch. Sundstrand has recently moved into a new plant which will produce these transmissions and currently start-up costs are producing a small loss in this area. Break- even should be reached in mid-1966 and, commencing in 1967, hydrostatic sales should add measurably to earnings. Recent results have undoubtedly reflected the trend in capital expenditures, but also the excellent growth shown by N/c machine tools and aviation products. Per share earnings increased to 1. 83 in 1964 from 1. 21 the previous year and are expected to reach 2. 15 in 1965, possibly approaching 3.00 for 1966. 1965 sales are estimated at 90 million vs. 82.4 million in 1964. The present 1. 00 dividend is conservative in relation to present high cash generation capability. From a technical point of view the stock has an initial objective of 44 followed by a longer term objective of 70. The recent move upward has been sharp, but any periods of minor weakn.ess.shQuldprovide an !)xcellent buying opportunity. Dow-Ji5rfe'sT 'Irldtt95'2;ifZ'''' .. – . ANTHONY W. TABELL Dow-Tones Rails 235 61 WALSTON & CO INC This market letu-r 18 pubhshed lor your convenience Rnd mformation and is not an offer to Bell or 8OI1cltation to buy any aeeurltles dlseussed. The m. fonnation WRS obtained from soure'S we believe to t.. rellllble. but we do not guarantee its act'urnc Walston & Co., Inc. and its officers, directors or emttloyees may have an Interest In or purchASe And sell the seeurltles referred to herein '-,– – – –

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