Viewing Month: April 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 01, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - April 01, 1965
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W—-a–l-s-tIonnc–&—-C–o-. INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICfS COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS EDMUND W. TABELl'S RECOMMENDED LIST April 1,1965 This edition of our Recommended List gives long term technical upside objectives and indicated support levels in cases where such levels exist. An asterisk in the Upside Objective column indicates 'either'that the objective is ulfclear, or that the stock has not yet broken out of its base formation. Amerada Amer. Can GenII Elec. Gulf Oil QUALITY & LONG TERM GROWTH Close Qual- Upside Sup- 3/31/65 .!!L Obj. port 78 5/8 A 108-150 70-60 44 1/4 B 99 1/2 A 130 90-85 53 5/8 A 66-92 50-45 Close Qual- 3/31/65 .!!L Norfolk W. 129 1/2 A Reynolds Tob. 39 1/8 A Royal Dutch 41 1/2 A Upside Obj . 155-170 86 Support 125 39 PRICE APPRECIATION Close Qual- 3/31/65 .!!L Atchison, Top. 33 3/8 A- Beaunit Corp. 39 3/8 B Cenco Inst. 32 '1/ 4 B Clark Equip. 50 7/8 A- Clevite 42 1/2 B Cluett, Peab. 70 1/2 B Copperweld S 61 1/2 B Crowell ColI. 2S B Denver, R. G. 20 3/S B Disney, Walt. 53 3/4 B Eaton Mfg. 50 l/S B Elec. Stor. B 53 1/2 A- El Paso N. G. 21 3/4 B First Charter 22 3/4 Fruehauf 31 3/S B GenII Dyn. 37 1/4 Hewlett Pack. 24 1/4 B Illinois Cent. 54 B Int. Min. Chem. 53 A- Kansas City S 42 7/S A- Koppers Co 62 3/S B Korvette, E.J. 41 7/S B Litton Ind. S4 B Lykes Bros. 22 1/4 B Upside SupObj. port 46-52 28 57-60 42 60-84 40 57-100 – 92 70-94 45-58 26 2S-43 65-100 7S 56-SO 25-34 56-S4 7S-114 – 40 SO-100 60-S0 96-12S 32-60 Close Qual- 3/31/65 McDermott 37 7/8 B McGraw Ed. 63 1/4 A- Mesabi Trust 137/8 MGM 41 1/8 Metromedia 3S 7/S B Newmont M 49 A- No.Amer. Car 32 1/4 A Rayonier 42 B Raytheon 22 3/4 Reynolds Met.37 1/2 B Riegel Paper 22 3/S B Schlumberger 76 A Scovill Mfg. 47 1/2 B Shell Oil 5S 5/8 A Signode Corp 29 1/2 A- Southern Rwy 57 1/2 B Spartans Ind. 24 5/S Stevens;J. P 47 5/8 B Storer Broad. 50 B Sundstrand 21 3/S B Swingline A 42 1/2 B United Fruit 17 5/S B Vornado 46 7/S Vulcan Mat. 22 B Warner Bros.Co. 34 B Upside SupObj. port 48-80 70-80 22 70 64 62 26 53-60 36-3S 51-SO 34 90-130 '70-65 65 64-120 54-50 33-50 77-104 53-50 27-36 52-75 54-70 . 45 '50-70 54 2S 50 LOW-PRICED SPECULATIVE Close Qual- Upside Sup- . Close Qual Upside Sup- 3/31/65 Obj. port 3/31/65 .J!l Obj port Amer. Bosch 19 7/S 40-50 Mohasco 17 3/4 B 29 Audio Dev. 12 7/S Camp. Chib. 4 Foote Min. 19 1/2 Gt. West Fin. 10 3/4 Intern 11 Pack. 13 3/S Ling-Temco 24 l/S Microwave S 7/S BB B B .2.9 44-62 21 National Can 22 3/S Pacific Pete 11 1/s Sbd. W. Air 9 1/s Sperry Rand 14 Univ. Match IS 1/s Varian Assoc. 14 1/4 B B- C B B B 50-60 14-20 .- This Bulletin IS pubhshed for lour convenlt'ncc and Informntlon Rnd IS not Il.n ofter to Mil or a soluitRlion to bu) Rny securities discussed The informauon was obtained from bOUre'…… c heinvl! to IJf but v.e do not LtS IlCCUHI.CY. ,,'alston &. Co. Inc Rnd Its offkers, dlredoTs or eml11o)ees mny hl!.Ve an Interest In or pUr('h,lw 'lnil-.dl thc 'Ct\lTltieS rlfelrt'( to helt'ln. ,,-916 r.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 05, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - April 05, 1965
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER April 5, 1965 A modest advance on Friday topped off a week in which the Dow-Jones Industrials essentially moved sideways. The most noticeable feature of the week's trading was the ex- tremely low volume, with turnover being lower than in any 5-day week since last August. Currently, the two important'pointsito)wcttch are the February low of 877.48 and the all-tim high of 911. 80. A breakout into new high ground would indicate a move to approximately 925, while a move below the February bottom would indicate a possible 860 and perhaps a testing of the December low of 850. 19. Thus, no dramatic move in either direction is implied. However, on the one hand, a move to new highs would destroy the potential top formation, maintain the year-long up- trend, and indicate a continuation of the relativel'y favoraJile'-invesfmenCcTima te from a time point of view. On the other hand, a downside breakout could indicate the continued building of a distributional pattern. In any event, either sort of market will be characterized by diverse action and good moves in individual stocks where the technical and fundamental picture warrants it. Exam- pIes are two stocks added to our recommended list last week. If one accepts the premise that the present market will continue to be characterized by a flow of investment funds from higher quality, amply-priced blue chips into smaller but still cheap secondary companies, WARNER BROS. COMPANY (33 1/2) becomes an extreme- ly attractive candidate for purchase. The price (eleven times 1964 earnings of 3.02, 9 1/2 timesestimated 1965 results of 3.50) is conservative. The growth record (earnings have increased in every year since the company went public in and shows no signs of abatement. And management has shown ability to os ,\'r, )boq through acquisition arrl internal growth, in a highly competitive field. Warner manufactures quality foundation gar s, a y shirts, lingerie, swim- suits and, a year ago, acquired Puritan r, nu urer of men's sweaters and men's knit shirts. Its Slimwear Division has e ighl ccessful in the fonndation gar- ment field.and a successf-ulploduct in its history. Typical of its aggres o v e5;'tfts'klk lR,1h-e eye-patch trademark which has made Hathaway shirts known the wor and'1j;SiS believed that aggressive management will be able to The stoc c s0 e1 growth record. side potential of 50, followed by possible higher level; and is added to our en ist for capital gains accounts. AMERICAN B SC RMA (20 3/8), on the face of it, has little to recommend it. Sales have declined fr 133 million in 1961 to 70 million in 1964 and should drop off fur- ther in 1965. Net per share has receded from a 1957 peak of 2.67 to 91 last year. What this record obscures, however, is a dramatic change in the structure of the company. Throu the years, American Bosch has been heavily dependent on defense contracts. This business has been gradually reduced, and it is the decline in this area that accounts for a large por- tion of the dropoff in net. Meanwhile, the company's capital structure has been drastically improved, a substantial amount of debt has been retired, nearly a quarter of a million sha of a total capitalization of 1. 7 million have been purchased for the Treasury, and more may be so purchased. More than this, however, the company's most important division is now the Ameri- can Bosch Division which is the leader in the manufacture of diesel fuel injection equipment. At a considerable research outlay, divisioithas developed system which may dramatically alter diesel engine technology and make the diesel engine economic in anum- ber of new uses, notably medium duty intra-city trucking. General Motors, Mack Truck, and a number of other major producers are nOw using the system and it is believed important enough to cause dramatic earnings growth for Bosch. Meanwhile, the company's other areas of operation, including the defense business on its present reduced scale, are profitable. The stock has a technical upside objective of 40, with support at the 17-15 level. It appears to have merit as a speculation on continued good results from the new fuel injection technique. Dow-Jones Ind. 893.38 Dow-Jones Rails 211. 08 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter is published for )'our convemence Pond mformatlon and IS not I'In offer to seU or R solicitation to buy Rny surlties diaemsed The information was obtamed (rom !;()urctl we lK.heve to t .. rehable but we do not guarantee It.s necurac) \\'Rlston & Co, Ine, and Its officers, directors or employees may have an Interellt in or purchase and sell the securities referred to herein. WNSOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 12, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - April 12, 1965
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Walston &Co. Inc INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges TABEll'S MARKET lETTER OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS April 12, 1965 WALT DISNEY PRODUCTIONS Current Price 53 Current Dividend 0.40 Current Yield 0.8 The Academy Award given last week to Julie Andrews for her performance in the delightful Mary Poppins warrants another look at Walt Long Term Debt 8,750,000 Common Stock 1,841,475 shs. Disney Productions, originally recommended by this letter in June, 1963 at 34 1/2. Despite the sharp rise in price since that time, the stock Revenues 1965-E 95,000,000 still appears to be a highly attractive capital Revenuee 1964 ,86, 000,..-. vehicle. '0 ., Earn. per Share 1965-E 4.50 The phenomenal success of Poppins ap- Earn. per Share 1964 3. 84 pears to assure a bright near-term future for Mkt. Range 1965-1963 571/2-261/4 Disney. Earnings for the first quarter of the fiscal year to end October, 1965 were 94 vs. 83, and the full impact of the company's new hit was not felt due to heavy initial distribution costs. For the full year, per share results could reach the 4. 50-4.75 range, making the stock available at a multiple of twelve times estimated earnings. On initial release, Mary Poppins is expected to gross 30 million, versus a negative cost of some 5 1/2 million. There must, however, be a reason beyond the current success of one picture to justify investment in Disney. There are, we believe, sufficient such reasons to make the stock at- tractive on a long term basis. 0 Disney has two major spheres of activity; first the p du an distribution of mo- tion pictures, and, second, the operation of the se t Park at Anaheim, California. Ancillary activities such as music and t Wonderful World of Color' television program (just extended through NBCY,'pr 'de a minor share of revenue. Disneyland continues to be a , a eady contributor to earnings, and r- the, – – ;)1lf ' uring1965IYis,however; motio-n' picture activities of Disney a greatest long range profit potential from the investor point 0 view Movie productio i e bess, and it is impossible to predict wha t the recep tion of future pro ' v!&fJe. is area, however, Disney has a number of factors in its favor not present the m companies. First of all, in live film production the eom- pany acts as producer ltS Own films, and is not forced to enter into profit-sharing contracts with highly a stars, directors and producers. This advantage also accrues to its production of animated films. Another Disney plus is the fact that most of its films are relatively low budget and, in most cases, the Disney name itself assures sufficient distribu- tion to insure at least a moderate profit. However, Disney's most important competitive advantage seems to be that its films are 0) essentially timeless and, (2), aimed largely at children. Every few years, therefore, there appears a new generation previously unexposed to the earlier Disney films. Since production costs are generally written off on initial release, re-releases are highly profit- able. Moreover, the number of films available for annual re-release will compound as the film library is built up. Thus, this year Disney will again introduce its highly successful 1950 production of Cinderella. In a,nothel' market, color television will provide a profit .. able outlet for the famous short cartoons of the 1930's and 1940's. Mary Poppins should contribute to revenues through 1965 and on into 1966 and 1967. Meanwhile, four new pictures either have been or will be released in 1965 and work goes on on others including an animated production of Rudyard Kipling's Jungle Book. From a technical point of view, Disney has an upside objective of 65-100, and is sug- gested for purchase in capital gains accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 901. 29' Dow-Jones Rails 213.69 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This market letter 18 pubhshed for our converllence and Information and 1; not an offer to sell or '1ohcltatlon to buy any securIties The In- formntlOn was obtained from sourCL'S we bLheve to I reliable. hut we do not gunrnntee Its nrcun\(') ,,'alston & Co, Inc and Ito; OffiC\.'1 s, directors or emJ)loyees may have an Interest In or purchase and sell the lecuntl('s referred to herein WN301 I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 19, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - April 19, 1965
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Walston &- Co. — Inc ——— INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity Exchanges OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER April 19, 1965 Until last week, for more than two months, the Dow-Jones Industrials had held in a trading range bounded by an intra-day high of 911. 80 and a low of 877.46. Finally, on Tuesday of last week, after five consecutive advancing days on expanding volume, the average posted a new intra-day high. This w.as..f.ollowed.on Wednesday by another good advance of almost five points in the average and an intra-day high of 917.01 was reached on Thursday. Profit- taking cut into the gain later in the day and an intra-day low of 905.71 was posted. Whether we like it or not, the writing of a market letter involves, in large part, the making of predictions. In turn, the most difficult part of the science of prediction is knowing jJredicted. Alw.ays.to hlve,a,prS'dicti0fl.. is a -. necessity for fortune tellers and astrologists. Fortunately, this is not true for the market technician. As has been pointed out in previous letters, the upsi de objective of the February- April congestion area is 928-930. This week's upside penetration indicates a strong possibil ityof this level's being reached. Unfortunately, it does not indicate anything further. Upon reaching the aforementioned level, the ma rket may well form a base indicating an extension of the advance or a top indicating the advance's culmination and an eventual decline. Such a statement is not hedging. It is only a statement of what, at the moment, cannot be predicted. Those who claim to read technical indications of an imminent substantial move in either direction from present levels are presumably privy to information not available to the writers of this letter. In our letter of two weeks ago we said a move to ne' ….. indicate a continuation of the relatively favorable investment climate 0 of view. This, again,is not an attempt to obscure the issue. It is, r a ' n Sl cant fact that could be inferred from a continued move into new high terr' . r e ma rket to remain at current levels in the Dow, it would indicate p s uilding an ultimate top had started as early as last December. Now the p l ' 'ty e' s that such a process has barely begun. ss- istrtbutton-takestime;-Thus7 were . the market to continue its ohhbJreaiWfiably predict that the sort of investment climate we have recently seen u e than would otherwise have been the ca The words to what the averag n imate are not meant to imply any prediction as , 0 ' lcate the type of market in which it is possible to achieve worthwhile c g n selected stocks. This has certainly been true in recent markets, as evidenced y t erformance of a number of issues in our recommended list. INTERNATIONAL MINFJ S & CHEMICAL (57) entered our list at a price of 16 (adjusted for last year's two-for'one split) in late 1960. It reached a newall-time high of 60 earlier this week. The three-year rise has been well documented. As the world's largest prOducer of plant growth nutrients, the company is the leading factor in an expanding field and earn- ings have moved from 1. 52 in the year ended June 1962, to 1. 77, 2.48, and an estimated 3. 15 in the year to end this coming June. The following year should show further expansion to the 3.50 – 3.75 level. On this basis, long term investors are certainly well advised to retain the stock,and, until evidence of technical deterioration takes place, we shall retain the Hold rating in our list. Market strength was also shown this week by a recent recommendation, GENERAL DYNAMICS (43) which reached a 1965 high of 43 1/4 on Thursday. Our market letter of August 28, 1964, which recommendecrthe stock at 33, pointed '-Out the improved balance sheet position and earnings potential which had been achieved since 1962 and suggested that the ul- timate value of the F-111 (TFX) contracts could be of considerable magnitude. An idea of that magnitude was given last week when the company announced that a pre-production con- tract of 45 million had been signed and tha t the ultima te value of this contract could be 1. 5 When it is considered that General Dynamics' 1964 sales were 1. 58 billion, and that fircraft sales were probably 500 to 600 million, it becomes apparent that the F-111 will be an important contributor to the company's fortunes. The stock is again suggested for pur- chase in accounts interested in capital growth. pow-Jones Ind. 911. 91 iDow-Jones Rails 213.16 ANTHONY W. TAB ELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This letter is published for your convenience and information and 18 not an offer to tleU or 8OI1c1tatlon to buy Any MCurltiea The in- formntion was obtained from ROurces we to t rehable, but we do not guaranu-e its accuracy Walllton & Co, Inc. Rnd ita officers, dlrl.'('tors or en1J1loyees may have an intere8t In or purchase Rnd sell the securities referred to herein, WNSOl

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Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1965

Tabell’s Market Letter – April 26, 1965

Tabell's Market Letter - April 26, 1965
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TABELL'S MARKET Walston &Co. —–Inc —-INVESTMENT BANKERS MUTUAL FUNDS MUNICIPAL BONDS Members New York Stock Exchange and Other Principal Stock and Commodity OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS LEnER April 26, 1965 On November 18th, over five months ago, the Dow-Jones Iustria1 Average reached an intra-day high of 897.00. On Friday, a new ali-time intra-day high was reached at 921. 51. Translating this into terms of actual prices of the 30 stocks in the Industrial Average, this means a rise from 89 3/4Qto9'lJ1 is equivalent to just a shade above 2. This is certainly not a dynamic rise, but considering the news uncertainties during the past1ive months, it is a creditable performance.The market has chosen to ignore the problems of Viet Nam, the money risk, the domestic credit picture, and the threatened steel strike, and has concentrated on the very favorable business background and the favorable earnings trend. ' respect, tJie-market pattern-is-quite-different from tlie -. which was based largely on a willingness to pay a much higher multiple for relatively static earnings. The earnings on the Dow-Jones Industrials for the 1955-1961 period were in a six year plateau between 28 and 35. The price-to-earnings- ratio doubled from 12 times earn- ings at the 1957 low to 24 times earnings in 1961, while actual earnings in 1961 failed to reach the 35 level of 1957. .0' The overspeculation and overvaluation that existed in 1961 and early 1962 is not present today. At the 1962 low of 525, the Dow-Jones Industrials were earning 33 and sell- ing at roughly 16 times earnings. Since that time earnings have shown a steady increase with 46. 51 reported for )964. In the last two years, the price of the/rridustrial Average has just about. kegt pace with the earnings rise. For the last two years, the price! earnings ratio has been hovering around the 19 times earnings level. ally high, it is considerably below the over-inflated 24 ti 9 e earnings is historic1961. Estimates for 1965 range between 50 and 52 on the 'a s. -ng the lower figure and applying the 16 times earnings that prevailed at 962 0 ould result in a price level of 800 if investor confidence were 20 times earnings to the 50 figure would re direction. Under such W by de s developments. Applying t' apr' evel around 1000. In either event . a e – -swing-of-not-more-than-1-0-in either- yo individual stocks is much more important than the action e and there is no in' t' 0 the technical backgr f . T' certainly has been the case for the last two years n the selective pattern. This has been borne out by rket. Since the Kennedy assassination lows, the market has advanced in a seri s 0 her moderate upward moves followed by a consolidating peri and an advance to new s. During this period, individual stocks and groups have followed diverse patterns. Many stocks reached their highs six months ago while others appear to have just started upward moves. It is a period in which it does not pay to generalize about the market. Selectivity continues to be the key. In our recommended list, we attempt to a- chieve this goal. The sum total of all issues in the list has acted much better than the aver- ages since the first of the year. A compilation of the price action of the list along with a few changes and additions will be furnished to your Account Executive at the end of the month. From a general-market technical point of view, the averages indicate a further ad- vance to the 928-930 level. If the technical pattern since 1963 continues, the attainment of this level will result in another consolidating period. In the past, these consolidating period I have been followed by an upside breakout and an advance to new high territory. Obviously, at some point this patterOn will change From a technical viewpoint, achange in trend will be signalled by two indicators. One is our breadth index. A divergence between it and the Indus trial Average would give a warning signal. This has not happened. The breadth index has been in an uptrend channel since late 1963 and has confirmed each new high in the average. Another indicator is the 200-day moving average of the price of the Dow-Jones Industrials. This average price for the last two hundred days is now at about 874. A breaking of this line would give a warning signal. A downward trend in the moving average itself would indi- cate a decline of at least intermediate term proportions. It appears unlikely, barring un- foreseen news events, that this latter development could occur before at least two months at a minimum. Dow-Jones Ind. 916.41 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. Dow-Jones Rails 212. 12 ThiS market letter is published for your convenience and mformatlon and is not an offer to Bell or a BollcltatloJl to buy Rny eeeurities discussed. The in- formation was obtamed from sources We b..lieve to tt reliable. but we do not IfURrantee Its accurRCY, Wl\lston & Co,. Inc. and Its offieers, directors or emZ'loyeea may have an Interest In or purchase and sell the securities referred to herein. — – WN.801

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