Viewing Month: June 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 04, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 1
Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 2
Tabell's Market Letter - June 04, 1963 page 3
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, LOW-PRICED SPECULATIVE Audio Devices Campbell Chibougamau Chicago & Nor. West Rwy El Paso Natural Gas Flying Tiger Foote Mineral Great West Financial International Packers Mesabi Trust Microwave . Murphy Corp. National Can Pacific Petroleun Reeves Bros. S e a b o-a.r d . F i n a n c e Sperry Rand .. ,..-.;;. Close 6/3/63 13 4' 5 16 23 7S 191S 131/4 10 12 20 17 3S 13l/S 11lS 205S 14 34 131/4 l4l4 21 14 Quality /0 Yield Comment B- Buy-Hold C Hold C Hold for 25 B 5.2 Buy at 17-16 Hold C Hold r B 0.9 Hold stk Hold B- 5.S Hold for 23-25 5.0 Hold for income B Hold 2.4 Hold for 25 B- stk Hold B- Buy-Hold B- 3.5 Hold for 21 — j -…- -r-.;,—- -..- ……H…. o–l.d for 22-24 B stk Buy-Hold June 4, 1963 Edmund W. Tabe11 Walston & Co. , Inc. 74 Wall Street New York 5, New York / ..' QUALITY AND LONG-TERM GROWTH Close 6/3/63 Quality 0/0 Yield Comment Caterpillar Tractor Corning Glass Crown Zellerbach DuPont General'Motors Gulf Oil International Bus. Machines Minne sota Mining Penney, J.C. Royal Dutch Standard Oil of N.J. Woolworth 45 3/4 166 3/4 531/2 252 73'1/2 45 473 1/4 5S 7/S 44 47 3/4 66 5/S 74 5/S A 2.2 A 1.2 A- 3.4 A (a) 3.0 A 47S . A 3.6 A O.S A 1.5 A 3.4 A 3.2 A 3.9 A- 3.3 Hold Hold- Buy at 150 Hold-Buy at 47-45 Hold-Buyat 230 -220 HorCi .Hold Hold for 490-500 Hold-Buy at 55 Hold Hold Hold Hold (a) Plus Stock – — ..- — – — .. -…,. .. —..- —-.. ..' , – —'– June 4, 1963 EDMUND W. TABELL'S RECOMMENDED LIST PRICE APPRECIATION Close 6/3/63 Quality /. Yield Air Products 67 3/4 B (a) Alside, Inc. 331/4 American Viscose 67 1/4 Atchison, Topeka & S. F. 29 3/4 A- Beaunit Corp. 241/8 B Burlington Ind. 35 B Burroughs 32 1/4 B Cluett, Peabody Consolidation .Coal 44 3/4 B 4L A— Copper Range 241/8 B Denver, Rio Grande 23 B Disney, Walt 341/2 B Electric Storage Battery 56 1/2 B Ex-Cell-O 45 1/4 A First Charter Financial 39 Fruehauf Trailer 32 3/8 B General Mills 36 1/8 A Great Northern Paper 42 7/8 B International Minerals & Chern. 55 7/8 B International Tel. & Tel. 47 7/8 B Kansas City Southern 46 1/2 A- Kern County Land 741/8 A Kerr McGee 39 3/8 A- Korvette, E.J. 27 1/4 McDermott, J. Ray 281/2 McKesson & Robbins 461/4 A- Newmont Mining Northwest Jlirlines Panhandle Eastern 83 A- 541/2 B –7'71/2'—– -A- – .,. — Pittston Co. 69 B Raytheon Co. Reynolds Metals 23 3/8 35 1/8 B B Schlumberger Stevens, J. P. Stewart-Warner 72 3/8 32 3/4 35 1/2 B B Storer Broadcasting 42 B Sundstrand Union Bag-Camp 27 5/8 40 5/8 B B United Fruit U. S. Plywood U. S. Vitamin 29 591/2 26 3/4 B AA Universal Oil Products Varian Associates 33 5/8 25 B B 0.3 1.7 3.0 4.9 5.0 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.6 4.3 1.2 3.9 3.5 stk 4.6 3.3 2.3 2.9 2.1 4.3 3.2 2.5 3.2 3.2 2.9 1.8 2.8 2.3 stk 1.4 1.4 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.7 2.1 3.4 2.6 2.2 June 4, 1963 (a) Plus stock dividend Comment Hold for 90 Hold for 42 -50 Hold for 75 -80 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold for 40 -50 Hold for 38 Hold for 53-55 Hold ——'-'—– Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold -Buy at 50 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold Hold for 40 Hold for 50 – 55 Buy-Hold Hold for 50 -52 Buy-Hold Hold for 82 -85 Hold-Buy at 35-33 Hold for 40 Buy-Hold Hold Hold Hold for 60 Hold – Buy-Hold Hold for 28-30 Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Buy-Hold Hold-Buy at 52-50 Hold for 30-32 Buy-Hold Buy-Hold

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 07, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 07, 1963
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-.Walston &Co. —–Inc —– MCII/bel''' Xc/(' lol'k Slock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June'7, 1963 Last week's market action showed indications of a temporary loss of upside momentu The Dow-Jones Industrials.reached.,a new high for the move at 732.97, but declines outnum- bered advances in each daily session of the week. This is the poorest breadth action since the March low of 656. 66. In fact, from a technical viewpoint, the present pattern shows a clos similarity to the pattern in February. The Industrials had advanced,from the December low of 636.88 to a high of 694.27 in February and, like the present market, began to show signs of an overbought condition and the need of a technical correction. The subsequent decline carried to the top of the December support level of 660-635. There is a similar support in the present market at 695-655. The present potential top at around the 725 level suggests a possible decline fO-690, which woUld a normal technicafcorrection. 0 We continue to believe that the general market is in a broad re-accumulation area a the 1962 decline and that this re-accumulation period probably will require more time a broad general bull market is indicated. While the Dow-Jones Industrials at last week's intra-day high of 732.97 were quite near the November, 1961 top of 741. 30, this does not quite show the real picture. Obviously, all the thirty stocks in the Dow-Jones did not make their individual highs for the 1949-1961 bull market at the same day in November, 1961 when the average hit 741. 30. One stock, Chrysler, reached its high for the 1949-1961 bull market as early as 1955. Three stocks reached their highs in 1956, one each in 1957 and 1958, and the remaining twenty-four reached their highs in the 1959-1961 period. If each one of the thirty,stocks had reached their highs on the same day, the high for the Dow-Jones Industrial average would have been approximately 901. 85 instead of above the recent high of 732.97, or even 754. 57 which wou b quite a distance 'f all the thirty in the average reached their 1963 highs on the e r. Two companies on our recommended list were b ws developments this wp,pkl The Justice Department filed suit against merican Viscose'( 65) assets to F. M. C. Corp. and J. Ray McDer ending March nce ightly lower.earnings for the year . s' r Marchquarter. ..' . In regard to American (1) The company is sellin con . intention is to liquidat 0\. . acts are true, as they have been all along. el&.i iquidating value. (2) Management's obvious As far as th t suit is concerned, both FMC and Avisco have announ ced that they will con t t. 'r chances of winning such a contest appear good and, should the government fail to mjunction blocking the immediate sale, it could go through fa ly quickly. Should FM nd Ame rican Viscose lose an eventual court battle, another buyer for the assets could probably be found on substantially the same terms. Meanwhile, the stoc in the low 60's is selling near its inherent worth based on the value of its Monsanto Chemical and the earning power of the textile and cellophane business. (See our letter of April 19th). Near term action may be slow depending on the development of litigation proceedings, but we continue to advise retention. In regard to J. Ray McDermott, the president of the company pointed out quite clearly that in a contracting business, profits for a given period are no indication of the profitability of the contracts being worked on. The m03t notable thing about the McDermott report was the 38 increase in sales to record levels. Given the nature of McDermott operations, it ap- pears logical to expectsales ultimately to be reflected in sharply improved earnings. Based on earnings of 2. 70 for the year ended March 30th, the stock is'selling at only slightly more than ten times earnings. The stock should be held and bought On weakness. We are adding Braniff Airways (13 1/2) to the low priced-speculative group of our rec ommended list. This stock has shown below average action compared to most airlines — mainly because earnings have shown only slight improvement and first quarter earnings showed a loss. However, the longer term prospects are encouraging and speculative pur- chase for the longer term is recommended. Dow-Jones Ind. 722.41 Dow-Jones Rails 170.98 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. This mnrket letter IS not, lind under no circumstances IS to be construed liB, an olTer to sell 01 Ii IwhcltntlOn to buy nny Becuflties referred to herein The m(nrmation contninerl hereIn 18 not guaranteed as to nCCUTncy or completene.s lind the fUl thelco( It' not. nnd no ell cnmstanl'elJ Is to be I',Jnshut'd as, n fepresenta- twn by Walston & Co. Inc All expressIOns or opmlon are bubJect to chnn)!c WIthout nutH'e Wullston &; Co, Inc.. and Dllectnl8. Stockholders and thereor. purchase. sell and may have an Interest In the I\eeurltles mentmnert helein ThiS market letter Is Intendetl nnd pre.entCti merely (UI a I!enerlli. mtormlll commentary on day to day market news and not as a complete Additmnni InfolmntlOn with leslloeC't to Dny 5eC'Ulltlet rdell'ed to hel'ein Will be furnished u,pon request. \\.. Jll

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 14, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 14, 1963
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Walston & Co. —–lnc —– ,Yell' lm Ie Siock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 14, 1963 11- It would be a pity to allow the month of June to go by without noting the fact that we are approaching the .anniver.sary of the 1962 market low of 524. 55, and the culmination of the selling debacle which swept the financial community in the Spring of 1962. Wall Street is, of necessity, orientated toward the future, and the memory of the past is short. Yet, it is bare lya year ago that many investors watched the ticker run until 8 0 'clock in the evening as the speculative frenzy of 1961 came to its inevitable end in a wild rush to sell e1uities at sharpl depressed prices. About the last thing that anybody in the financial community expected in June, 1962, wa tnat within a year the Dow-JonesInduStriaraverage woulcfhllvewipeaoutaimost an of'11s loss. Certainly, this letter claims credit for no such prescience.By late June, 1962, howeve the panic nature of the decline became so evident that we resorted to the rather unusual step of enclosing a memorandum to investors which was mailed along with June statements to every Walston & Co. Inc. account. In that memo we said' For the long term investor, the investment odds are more favorable at the moment than for some time.. , … The averages …… are at a very strong support zone in the 525-450 area, (and) the downside risk appears to be relatively small as compared to the possible upside potential over the next several years . We said – If the investor is interested in long term growth, the decline has brought a number of excellent quality growth issues down to near or below the average price to earn- ings ratios of the past ten years. At the recent lows, Interna Machine, Corn- ing Glass, Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing, Minneapoli H n ll03.nd DuPont, fall into this category. These five stocks have advanced an f si that time. The memorandum then pOinted out that ed' ncome could obtain a 5 or better yield on stocks of the quality of ndard Oil of New Jersey, International Harvester, American Can and . Today, 5 yields are consid- erably ha'derioco.me .1yand from their prices of a year ago. In the businessman ave..advanc.ed.an averag.e yo .' i\; memo stated, issues like International Minerals & Chemical, G ue ,rysler, Kerr-McGee and Diamond National appear most attractive for 0 er preciation. These five issues have advanced an average of 77, in 1 a 1 vance in Chrysler. Yet, despite the bar eflated prices that prevailed a year ago, the advance has been, in the old cliche, arket of stocks rather than a stock market. It is not at all diffi- cult in searching thro gh the stock list to find issues even today that are selling for less than they sold for last June. As this letter pOinted out all through the Summer of 1962, in order to participate in the 1962-63 rise, it was necessary for the investor to upgrade his portfolio and to switch out of second and third rate growth issues into the institutional qual- ity stocks that were to be the leaders of the advance. It is here, perhaps, that one finds the relevance of the 1962 break for the investor in June of 1963. The first half of 1962 was perhaps the only period in recent market history where the wisest course of action was to be out of the stock market entirely. The reason for the sharp advance in the issues mentioned above is the fact that the market break brought perfectly sound, high quality stocks down to bargain levels. Since that time, reason, as it . toultimately must, has prevailed and the blue chips which had no real reason in the first place have advanced sharply, many of them to new highs. Those stocks that were bla- tantly overpriced in the first place, have done nothing. The point is that something like the 1962 break occurs once in a generation. Certainly after the sharp rise of the past year, it is unlikely that the averages will achieve a percent- age advance equal to that of 1962-63. However, whatever the averages do, it is quite cer- tain that all stocks will not move in the same direction as they did in the market of a year ago. For 1963, it will be far more important to select individual stocks with good fundamen- tal and technicaLbacll;gcr.ouo.Gslthanrto guess the probable action of the general market. Dow-Jones Ind. 722.03 Dow-Jones Rails 169.79 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThiS mnrkct letter IS not. and undt'r no circumstnnces is to be construed as. an onel' to .wll or a sulicilatlfln to buy any lIecllt Ihc-. refeL red 't.. hel Cln The mformation contUined herem IS not as to accuracy or completeness and the fm nlshlnr thereur nut. nnd umlel no CII cumstance IS tu be Clmttl LIed as n repi esenta tiun by Walston & Co. In(', All expreSSIOn') uf oPinion are llhJect to chan)!e wlthllt nntue Wabton & Cu. Inc.. natl Offlcel.. DllcctIS, StJckhuldcn, Dnd Employees thereof, purchase, sell nnd mny have an mterest in the mcntwncd hCI ('Ill 'fhl market letter III intended Hnd merely fit a t.enerul. miormal commentary on dny to day market news nnd not- as a complete afwlYhl.!! Adflrtm1I1 mimmntlOn l\lth 1eIect tu lilly .e('Ul'lties retellcd to hCI'Clfl Will be furnished upon f!!qUest ,,\ 301

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 21, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 21, 1963
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-7)L Walston &Co, —;'-Inc Member.. Xel/' rorh Stork ETCilange NEW YORK ' SAN FRANCISCO ' LOS ANGELES ' PHILADELPHIA ' OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERseAS CHICAGO TABEll'S MARKET lETTER June 21, 1963 The market, as measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial average, has held in an un- usually narrow,range foralmosttwo months. Early in April, the Industrial average pushed the 700 level and reached an intra-day high of 724.69 early in May. Since that time, the mtra-day range has been between a high of 732.97 and a low of 708.16. This is the equi- valent of a two-month trading area between 73 1/4 and 70 7/8 in an individual stock. There have been several attempts to break out of this area, but the buying or selling in each instance failed to follow through. Obviously, this area will be eventually penetrated. An upside penetration would indi- cate a possible750. A downside penetration would indicate a possible 690-675. Shorter term breadth action is not too clear, but the probabilities appear to favor a downside penetration. In any event, no move of any great significance is indicated in either direction and, a noted many times recently in this letter, the market is in a stage where the action of indivi- dual issues is vastly more important than that of the averages. At the start of the year, it was the opinion of this letter that 1963 would be an inside year as far as the averages were concerned and that the averages would not move above the 1961 high or below the 1962 low. This still remains our opinion despite the fact that we could envision a modest new high in the Industrial average above the 1961 peak of 741. 30. This would, in our opinion, be of no great technical significance. Just a little over a year ago after the Industrial average had reached a low of 553.75, our letter of June 1st, 1962 said – Over the longer term, we envision a lengthy may last into 1964 – 1965. It may be very similar to the 1946-1949 period. In 6, ctW-Jones Industrials declined 25 from 213 to 160 and then held in a ran etllV 6 5 until late 1949. Translating this into the present market would tr n nge between 553 and 675 until some time in 1965. Obviously, this is a . The timing and the scope be quite different in the earlier po. . much more m the e t . probable that t!lJ'Jr.admg area wl,ll be broader. If we are in error it' the upside of the range. The average may return to the 700-750 declining below we find it difficult to envision the average . In fact, we doubt if the Industrial average will sell much below 5 i Just like 19 e 9, e nyone reading this letter. ieve the eventual breakout of this long trading area will b on the upside, but the psi otential will not be ascertainable until the pattern is com- pleted. It will be subs ally above the 1961 high. These long range accumulation patterns usually require consi erable patience and are difficult to recognize while they are taking place because different stocks are at different stages of the pattern. The international oils, for example, reached their highs in 1957-1959, rather than in 1961, and the lows in 1960, not 1962. Their long term base patterns are probably completed. They will, of course, have technical corrections, but if every stock in the Dow-Jones Industrial average had the same long4erm pattern as the international oils, the long-term upside potential for the Industrial average would be in the 1200-1400 area. Other issues are still in the early stages of devel- opment. The stocks that are in a more advanced stage of the accumulation pattern will be found in the stocks that. in 1962, did not break the 1960 lqws. See our letter of May 3rd and the four-page list of stocks that held above their 1960 lows. Diverse action will continue. Three issues in our recommended list reached the up- side potential noted in our list of June 4th and are removed from the list. They are' Inter- national Tel & Tel in the Price Appreciation list, and Chicago & North West Railway and Seaboard Finance in the Low- Priced Speculative Group. There are quite a few issues that we would like to add to our recommended list on moderate weakness. A list of these stocks will be given shortly. The subsequent intra-day low at the end of June, 1962 was 524.55. Dow-Jones Ind. 720.78 Dow-Jones Rails 174.00 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. ThlR mnrket letter 1'1 not, nnd under no circumstnnces IS to be II'. an ofrC! to 01 n solicitl'lhnn to I'IIY IIny eCcl1 cd tu hel em The wformobon ('ontmned herem is n()t 1-\lRranteed as to accuracy 01 completeness oncl the rm nu,hulJ,! thel cor ill not. nnd l1n(lCi 110 ell Clltnstnn('(; II! to be contlllro till, n rcprccnta- tlon by Wnhlton & Co. Inc All expressions uf oPInIOn are flubJcct to chnnJ.,(c \Hth,'ut notice Wnbton & Co Inc and Offlcel!! Dl1cctms Stockholders and 1-mployees thereof, purchnlle, sell and may have an mteret In the lIecliritiClo mentiuned helel1\ ThiS mnrJ..et iN alld m'erelY a J.,(encral mfurmnl commentary on day to dnl' market news 811t1 nol as n complete annbslN. A.lthtlUllullllfuin18tlun …. Ith Ie.pcct tu any lIe('Ullhcs refClleti to helcm will !urlllshcd \i,Pon request \\-. 301 , 'I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1963

Tabell’s Market Letter – June 28, 1963

Tabell's Market Letter - June 28, 1963
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Wdlston &Co. – – – – – I n c – -……- .11rm/(,I Xrll' III'!.' St()rk E'rlwll.QC FILE NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFfiCES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER June 28, 1963 After holdmg for forty-four trading days in a narrow range bounded by the May 31st high of 732.97;' and ,the' early May low of 708. 16, the Dow-Jones Industrials moved lower this week and reached an intra-day bottom of 702. 42 on Thursday. As noted in last week's letter, the downside objechve of the top at 710-730 on our point and figure chart of the Dow is somewhere in the 685-675 area. A decline to this area now becomes a probability. This would hardly be any great catastrophe, Were the averages to reach the lower part of this range, at 675, the correction would be less than 8. This would not be a great deal sharper than the 5. 4 correction experienced m February, and certai'11y must be count ed as normal afterosqm\, Based on what has taken place so far, the chances of a decline 'much below 675 -'-' at thIS point – – appear rather small. We have, nonetheless, reached a rather important stage for the market analyst. In our letter of March 1, 1963 which, coincidentally, was written on the day the market hit its bottom after the February correction, we pointed out that, since there was little chance of the decline's developing into anything serious, that the important thing to worry about was not the extent of the drop, but the character of the next rally. We suggested, indeed, that the downswing, which had reached a low of 656. 66, presented a rather attractive short-ter buying opportunity. The question about the character of the rally was answered when our breadth and volume indicators moved ahead along w1th the April-May rise in the Dow. The market, at the moment, 1S at the same sort of juncture, and thus the type of action to be displayed over the next few weeks becomes In broad outline, a number of courses are p'ESible. One is that the awe COl d form a new base slightly under current levels and move on into new i 0 Y w' onfirmation in breadt and volume figures. This would mean simply that the u end w' began in October had not yet run its course. Another possibihty ov new highs in the averages not confirmed by the various ind1ces of market b a . T' ould constitute a repeat of what st -aH-itude-of-ext-reme-CRution-,- . While either one of would be for the market to re a more probable course of action ughlf. the 675-730 range with our breadth index acting about the same s . 5 would be consistent with the sort of long term consolidation peri W I as repeatedly insisted must be the precursor of a new major bull mar t beg ter m the 1960's. It is pOSSible, in terms of the averages, of course, that a decli e 5 followed by a rally to a pomt below 730 could broaden the top and produce an ultim lower downside indication for the Dow. Th1S, however, is largely academic as a scrutiny of indlVidual stock patterns must inevitably show. As we have previously pointed out, a large minority of individual stocks made their lows not in 1962, but in 1960, and have been spending from four to five years forming bases, bases whiCh, in the recent move, have been penetrated On the upside. Some of these, es- pecially some which have been market leaders in the latest upswmg, have made short term tops. If the averages are to move somewhat lower, these quite ObvlOusly could reach the downside objectives of these short term tops which are, in most cases, close to major sup- port levels. However, since they have already completed long term bases, any such declin would constitute an extremely attractive buying opportunity. On the other hand, in those stocks which have not completed the1r longer term base formations, broadening of the short term tops could indicate considerable risk. All this is another way of saying that in any long range accumulation area, such as the one now taking place, action will be highly diverse. We have consistently pointed out that the excessive concentration on, the averages is, especially at this stage of the market, largely futile. An accumulation area is, after all, the prelude to an eventual major upswing. In a great many stocks a decline from current levels may well produce one of the last major buying Dow-Jones Ind. 706.88 Dow-Jones Rails 173.66 ANTHONY W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. 1 hI 111111 i(!ttci h Itut ,Ind unlll!l nu U\l.l11l, …UIIlCC' h to he (llhli ltC ,11\ lTe. In ,,\,1 II H (llll'I(.,111I I.u .'n) 'Cf,lll…1 l .. llCIC11I The ,nf'l1lo,tll' ( nt.,illl''' I! lIul j.!IIHll1nt-'(',1 n' tu IICCU' IItY III (.('ml,klcllt… ntl.1 thc I c.,f I…. 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