Viewing Month: November 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 04, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 04, 1960
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Walston &- Co. Inc. —– Members New York Stock Exchan,qe NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS fABELL'S MARKET LETTER Riverside, Connecticut November 4, 1960 In the past three Presidential elections this letter has attemptedto forecast the winner and the stock market reaction to the result. Probably more through good luck than political acumen, our forecasts have been fairly good. In the Truman-Dewey con- test in 1948, our opinion was that, while all the polls seemed to favor a Dewey victory, the result was far from certain, and we advised taking short-term trading profits as the market had seemingly discounted Deweyl s election and could be expected to sell off sharply in the event of a Truman victory. It did not take too much ability to predict the 1956 election.result.– Eisenhower was indicated we are proud that we called the turn in the 1952 election when we predicted that Eisenhower would be elected by a landslide greater than any since 1936, despite the fact that the poll forecast a very close election. The 1960 result looks to us like a victory for Kennedy. Not only do all the polls point in that direction, but if Kennedy holds all the states in which he is even, or has a slight advantage, his victory could be of landslide proportions, surpassed only by the two Eisenhower and the first two Roosevelt elections. It is true that the fact that so many states are so close, coupled with the large undecided vote, makes it possible that Nixon will pull an upset, much as Truman did in 1948. This, however, must be regard- ed as rather unlikely. In my opinion, while the election outcome may have some short-term reper- cussions in the stock market, over the longer term the result will have no great effect whether Kennedy or Nixon is elected. Other influences and forces over the next four years will be of far greater importance than the result For a real long- term prediction, J. personally feel that no matter which c di ,ected on Tuesday, he will fail to be re-elected in 1964. ….–1 For a long time this letter has held the tha re in the final stages of the Eull market in!.949. It gener.al market averages- can have another surge upward long trading area with the market tj' v 's c eted. The sequel will be a confines of, roughly, 500 and 750 for several years before t In the final stages of a bull market, lower-price f m better than the general market. This letter published p g tion of low-priced stocks on several occasions in the past. It wa ese issues be bought as a package in order to provide the necessa iv fication in a speculative list of this nature. The list be- low of stocks selling er 20.00 a share, is slightly changed from our list of August 12th. The n recommendations are marked with an asterisk. Recent 1959-60 Price Range Recent 1959-60 Price Range Allied Paper 105/8 17 1/4-83/4 Kaiser Industries 83/4 20 1/8-8 1/4 Avco 137/8 175/8-'1.0 1/2 Lear 161/2 23 1/2-9 1/8 'Campbell Chiboug. 57/8 103/4-49/16 McCrory Corp. 13 193/4-12 1/2 Chic. ,Mil. ,St. Paul 15 1/4 333/8-13 1/4 National Can 91/4'145/8-8 'Commercial Solvents 19 25 1/2-12 5/8 oNorthwest Airlines 153/4 463/8-133/ 17 1/8 29-157/8 Pacific Petroleum 10 1/4 191/8-8 Foote Mineral 19 455/8-18 Rayonier 16 1/8 303/8-155/8 Fruehauf Trailer 18 3/4 30 3/4-17 3/8 li;;Rohr 15 – 243/4-'12 '5/8 Getty Oil 14 1/4 28 3/8-12 1/4 Servel 12 1/8 17 3/8-9 1/4 Intern'l Packers 15 3/4 245/8-12 3/4 Sun Chemical 135/8 18 1/4-11 3/8 Ve have removed several issues from our previous list. As a result, the following S\\itch operations are advised. Switch Chemway, Curtis Publishing, Hotel Corp, Publicker Ind. , and United Industrial into Campbell Chibougamau, Kaiser Industries or National an. Pacific Petroleum replaces Home Oil and Fedders Corp. ,and Oliver Corporation (now Cletrac) should be switched into Commercial Solvents, Foote Mineral or Sun Chemi- cal. EDMUND W. TABELL ow-Jones Ind. 596.07 ',ALSTON & CO. INC. ow-Jones Rails 128.22 ThIB market letter is not, and under dreumstances is to be construed ss, an offer to sell or a sohcitatlOn to buy any securities referred to herem The information contamed herein 18 not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furn1shmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances lS to be construci as, a. representa- tion by Walston & Co Inc All expresSIOns of opinIOn are subJect to change Without notice Walston & Co, Inc, and Officers, Directors. Stockholders and Employees thereof, sell and may have an Interest In the securities mentIOned herein This market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a informal commentary on day to day market news not 88 a complete analysis AddItIOnal mformatlOn With respect to any secUrittes referred to herem be JOt ……. –

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 11, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 11, 1960
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Walston &Co. ..;.,;..;;;..;,.,;; 1nc. Members New York Stock Exchange FILE COPY NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHlCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November II, 1960 The stock market interpreted Mr. Kennedy's extremely narrow victory mar- gin as a favorable development and, after some slight uncertainty early Wednesday, the Dow-JOI.es Industrials advanced to an intra-day high of 614.09 on Thursday. Profit- taking on Friday's Armistice Day session brought about a mild correction. Volume indications were favorable with transactions moving above the four-million-share level on Thursday, and dropping to 2,730,000 on Friday's sell-off. Despite the recent happenings in the political, foreign and economic fields, the technical pattern of the market shows no great change from the analysis presented in our letter of October 21st. The downside potential' of the August f959January 1960- double top at 685 in the Dow-Jones Industrials indicated a decline to 578-550, after the 600 level was broken in September. A low f 565.49 was reached in September and tested in October at 564.23. It now appears indicated that the Industrial average reached its low for the intermediate term at the 565 double bottom. Any near-term correction would probably meet support around the 580 level. How much higher can the market move over the near term There is obviously a considerable amount of overhead supply between 600 and 645, an area in which the Dow-Jones Industrial average held from late January to late September, with the exception of the June upsurge. The present advance has pushed into the lower part of this overhead resistance to reach 614.09. The base formed at the 565 level does not indi- cate much higher at this time, and normal technical action would indicate the need of some consolidation and a broadening of the base in the 600-580 area. The Rail average which reached an intra-day high of 130.03 on Friday, has overhead supply at 132- 136. It is interesting to.note that the long downtrend mid-1959 top of 174.41, 'rtow stands at about 136. hl'be do average from the more recent January, 1960 top !lJverage from the the Industrial ow approximately 638 Regardless of the action of the 1 mar/.eM the ook for individual issues and groups-r.emains highly selective . icWa 'of-the-va-rious-groups can be broken down into several h st classification would include the groups that have acted the past year or so, regardle ket and have moved higher over in the averages. This classification would include, princ' Drink, Tobacco ' it' chInes, Food, Movies, Publishing, Soft 'ese groups still indicate an uptrend, they have reached a price Ie commitments. t er makeo them particularly attractive for new Of more im late importance are the groups that have, in the main, been in a downward or si ewise price movement for almost a year or more and have sufficiently attractive technical patterns to make them worthwhile candidates for price appreciation during 1961. Included in this second classification are Aircrafts, Fertilizers, Finance, Gold, Meat Packers, Natural Gas and Pipelines, Oils and Ship- building. In the oil group, the domestic oils appear to have the better technical pattern, The third classification are groups that have been in a downtrend for a long period and appear to have reached downside objectives, but have not yet formed base patterns. This basing out period may consume some further time. The groups that appear to be bottoming out include Airlines, Automobiles, Building Materials, Cement,Copper,Drugs, Machinery and Machine Tools, F'aper and Sulphur. The risk factor seems low in these groups and they should be watched closely for the start of an uptrend. The groups that are still weak and show no indication of a change in trend are included in the fourth classification Aluminum, Chemicals, Electrical Equipment, Electronics, Rubber, Steel and Railroads. Other groups have patterns that are difficult to interpret, but the compilation above covers most of the more important groups. From a tax-loss point of yiew, it would appear advisable to switch from the fourth group into the second group for intermediate-term upside potentials,and into the third group for longer-term holding. Ind. – 608.61 DonrTOnes BaUIi 1a9.46 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO TNr ThiS market letter IS not, and under no circumstances IS to be construed AS, an ofter to sell or a soliCitatIon to buy any securities referred to herein The Illformntton , contained herein IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or cop1pieteness and the furnishmg thereof IS not, and under no Circumstances 18 to be qODstrued as, n tlon by Wnlston &. Co, Inc. All expresSIOns of OPInIon are subJect to change Without notice, Walston & Co, Inc and Officers, Directors, StockhoJders a d E I ees thereof purchase sell and may ha.ve an mterest in the securities mentioned herem, ThiS market letter IS mtended and presented merely as a genebi . wJ 301on day to day market news antJ not as a complete analYSIS Additional mformatlon with respect to any securitIes refeTred to herem …

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 18, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 18, 1960
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r Walston &- Co. Inc Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELP IA CHJCAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABELL'S MARKET LETTER November 18, 1960 As was to be expected on technicaCgrounds, the Dow-Jones Industrials met supply at the lower part of the broad 600-645 area in which the average has held for the major part of 1960. The intra-day high was reached on the Thursda after Election Day at 614. C9 The- overhead supply,coupled with the continued tax-loss sellip.g, may result in further ir regularity until mid-December, but I would expect the 600-58 level to furnish effective support. The low of the past week was 598.66. As for the longer-term outlook, my opinion remains same as expressed in the letter of September 16th before the Industrial j s.. triple bottom'.' 19W aroUl'l the 600 level and declined to 565. This s'that the stock market, as measured by the Industrial average, is going to hold in a wide trading range for several years. The upper limit of this range will probably be about 700, with possible upside ex- ',. cursions to the 750 level. The downside potential appears to be 550 with temporary dips to around the 525 level. If the average is to hold mainly between the 700 and 550 level for the foreseeable future, it would appear that the upper third of this range should be used to lighten holdings in undesirable situations and that the lower third of this range, betweer 600 and 550, should be used as an accumulation area for situE ions with attractive funda- mental and technical backgrounds. New lows in the average right bring in some selling, but, in my opinion, it would be 'weak selling' If the market pattern envisioned above proves to be cot-rect, the longer-term in- vestor cannot rely solely on the upward momentum of the gen ral market, as was the caSE from 1949 to 1956-1957. Ability to select the right issues wii continue to be of increasing importance. The stock below is a case in point. Recent activity in AMERICAN VISCOSE (39) quisition by Monsanto Chemical of Viscose's 50/0 Monsanto will pay 3,450,000 shares of its own 1. i the proposed acCorporation. change for their in- will be worth more than 31 following assets 1. A 't cose share in 19 ' 2. A 50/0 e t in -r. polypropylene. addition, !viscose will still hold the 1 ,Company, which p' oduced 30 cents per Visn Corporation, one of Ameri a's major producers of 3. A profita e and modern cellophane operation with an earning power in the neighborhood of 75 – 1.00 per share. 4. A gigantic rayon plant with huge sales volume and /look value, but questionable earning power. All of the above assets combined will give Viscose a bpok value of over 75 per share, even taking the Ketchikan and Aisun investments at tl e conservative figures stated on the balance sheet. Book value, of course, is of little importance to the i vestor, unless it can be realized over the foreseeable future. There is an excellent hance that such realization is largely possible for American Viscose. First of all, t e rayon end cellophane operations rplroduce a huge cash flow. (Depreciation exceeded capital expenditures by 10 . million in 195 Second, the capital structure of the subsidhries assures a generous cash flow from debt repayment. Third, of course, the Mons mto investment will be highly liquid. During the past year. Viscose has been utilizing cash 'ow to buy in its own stock, and, at the end of October had acquired 418,800 shares. This process, of course, tends to increase book value even more, and there is no reason wh it should not continue. At current levels, there seems to be only moderate risk invo ved in owning the stock and a good deal of upside potential over the long ,term. Dow-Jones Ind. 603.62 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON & CO. INC. I is to be construed as, an offer to sell or 1\ soliCitation to bu any securiti('9 referred to herem The mformation cl)nuuncd herein IS not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof not, and under cIrcumstances to be as, a representa- tIOn by Walston & Co. Inc. All expressions of opintOn are subJect to change WIthout notIce Walston &, Inc. and OffIcers, Directors, Stockholders nnd Employees thereof, purchase, sell and may ha.. e an interest In the secuntH'g mentIOned herein ThiS market let er IS mtended and presented merely as a Informal commentary on day to day market ncWB anI not as a complete analYSIS. Additional tnformattOn With ;';pect to any SI!CUTItleB referred to herem wdl be \Yl! . I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1960

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 25, 1960

Tabell's Market Letter - November 25, 1960
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Walston &Co. flL Members New York Stock Exchange NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA CHICAGO OFFICES COAST TO COAST AND OVERSEAS TABEll'S MARKET lETTER November 25, 1960 While the various stock market averages and breafh-Of-the-market indices remain in downtrends from the mid-1959 and January 1960 hi s, quite a few individual stocks are beginning to break out of downtrend channels tha have been in effect for a yea or two, and a great many more individual issues are near s ch upside breakouts. This trend, if it continues, will have to show up shortly in the ge eral market indicators. Tec – nical patterns still suggest some further irregularity aroun the 600-580 level of the Dow Jones Industrials in December, followed by an attempt to re ch the upper part of the 600- 645 supply area in the early part of the new year. SWIFT & COMPANY Current Price Current Dividend Current Yield 46 1.85 4. 0 For a nu ber of years this letter has tried to pOint out some of the important change which have been aking place in the hitherto Long-Term Debt Common Stock 90,478,000 5,980,204 shs. Sales, 1960-E 2,350,000,000 Earn.PerSh.1960-E 3.50 Sales, 1,961-E 2,500,000,000 Earn. Pe'r Sh. 1961-E 5.00 highly cyclical m at packing industry. We.have noted, for,examp e, the tendency on the part of major packers to close obsolete and inefficient facHitie and replace them by decentralized, mod rn operations. We have also noted the trend to ard diversification into nonmeat lines and th increasing emphasis on pre Mkt.Range 1960-1955 – 52 1/8-263/4 processed and pr -packaged meat items with their attendant margins and great er susceptibility to brand identification. As a participati n ing industry, we were fortunate enough some three years ago to i son o. at a price of 15 1/4. The stock subsequently reached a high of 4 in 9 ,and has held through- out most of this year in a trading range not b igure. Meanwhile, the com- mon stock of Swift & Co. has not, as low as 26 3/4. e d' 55 high of 52 1/8 and has sold Despite this rather compared with Wilson and some of the other packing stocks, other meat camp ie h s to a greater efficie cy that has characterized in Swift. Of necessit the improvement in earn- ings has been slo 1 e g itself due to the compan 's gigantic size (sales of around 2 1/2 billion a as the next two largest comp titors combined) and diffi- culties caused by a st in 1958 when earnings reached a 2 -year low of 1.70 per share. Nonetheless, ts primary competitive position, plus a record of dividends stretch- ing, except for one year, back to 1888, gives Swift an invest ent grade status not shared by its competitors. In 1961-1962, improved livestock-mark t conditions should increase earnings sharply, and the steps taken over the past few year to increase operating effi- ciency should become more apparent. Earnings for the fiscal year ended October 1960 ar estimated at 3.50 per com- mon share. These results were held down by a low hog supp which tended to hold prices at fairly high levels throughout 1960. Beginning in 1961,this cycle should,normally,re- verse itself and some time during the next fiscal year heavy hog supplies should begin to depress prices. In addition, according to most analysts, a long-term trend toward heavy cattle supplies is now beginning. Consequently,in 1961 1962, livestock prices may be sharply depressed. This normally has the effect of impro ng packers' margins quite radically. Under such conditions Swift could raise sales to 1/2 billions from the 2.35 billion estimated for 1960 and increase profit margins after axes from .8 to 1.2. This would result in earnings of better than 5.00 per comm n share. Earnings of this magnitude, in turn, could cause the further liberalization of e 1.60 dividend which, in 1960, was supplemented by a 25 extra. From a technical paint of view, ability to reach 48 ould indicate 58-73. There is also a very long-term objective of 95. Strong support exi ts just below current levels at 45-40. The stock is recommended for purchase in invest ent accounts. Dow-Jones Ind. 606.47 EDMUND W. TAB ELL mhnl1ukctictter is not, and under no clreumstnnces IS to be construed as, an offer to sell or n soliCitation to b y Any securities r.et'crred to herein The information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness and the furnlshmg thereof IS not, and under 0 Circumstances l.S to be construed as, a reprcsenta dti n b W Iston & Co Inc All er;preBBlOno of OPlnJon are subJect to change without notice Waloton & 0, Inc, and Olilccro, DIrectors, Stockholders an atbereof sell and may have an Interest In the oecUl'ltles mentIoned herem. ThiS market I ter IS Intended and presentr a informal cornmentiu-y on day to day market news anq. not as a complete analysis Additional InformatIOn Wit respect to any Bccul'Ibes re err to …. 301 furnished upon request. . ——–

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