Viewing Month: November 1954

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 05, 1954

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 05, 1954

Tabell's Market Letter - November 05, 1954
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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES ,( NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw,.,Id) OffiCES COAST TO COAST CONNEcnr. BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 5, 1954 The technical action of the market both before and after the election has been most impressive. Prior to Tuesday, the industrial average held at the 350 support level which was the low of the midOctober decline. On the day after the election, the Dow industrials rose 7.54 and then on Thursday gained another 5.45 to reach a new peak since September 19, 1929'. -Also, on Thursday-; the rail-average climbedtoo- a new high since October, 1930. Volume of trading stepped up sharply. These upside penetrations of the October 1954 highs of 366.40 in the Industrials and 121.50 in the Rails indicated a renewal of the uptrUnd. –, The next objective is probably an advance to the 370-400 level in the industrials and 128-132 in the rails. Regardless of the action of the averages, selected groups and individual issues will continue to show above-average action. Best acting groups continue to be building issues, airlines, electronics, department stores, aluminum, food products, fertilizers, farm machinery, steel and selected issues in the machinery group. Scme of the oils and chemicals are also showing signs of improving action. Listed below are a number of issues that, technically, appear to offer interesting possibilities of capital appreciation over the next year or so. To guide individual investors, I have classified these issues under their quality ratings. Group includes the more conservative type of investment. Group B includes issues of good quality but somewhat below the investment quality of the first group. Group C includes the more speculative issues Chain Belt Corn Products Dow Chemical Gel e'-'l.J fJ i j . s Hooker Electro. ' Allegheny Ludlum Allied tores American Potash American Viscose Black & Decker Blaw Knox Chicago,Rock Is. Cities ,service Admiral Corp. Associated Dry Goods Bell & Howell Certainteed Chicago,Gt.Viest. Continental Motors Greer Hydraulics Merck & Co. Monsanto Chern. Fenick & Fcrd Pennsylvania Salt Ffizer GROUF B Colgate Palmolive Combustion Eng. Cornell Dubilier Crane Co. Dresser Ind. Hewitt-Robins Idaho Power Lion Oil Union Carbide Union Oil United Fruit Victor Chemical Sinclair United Mer.Mfgrs. United Shoe Mach. Visking Corp. \estern Pacific Yale & Towne GROUF C Jaeger Machine M-K-T, pfd. Mullins Mfg. National irlines New York Central Northern Facific Pan-American ,drways Raytheon Robertshaw-Fulton- Simmons Co. Tung-Sol Elec. – Iestern Union Zenith RadiO EDMUND Vi. TABELL WALSTON & CO.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1954

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 12, 1954

Tabell's Market Letter - November 12, 1954 page 1
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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEAOING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Swa,ld) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABEll'S MARKET lEnER November 12, 1954 . Both averages have reached new high terri tory at 379.73 for the Dow-Jones Industrials and 128.05 for the rails. The renewal of investment confidence has been most impressive and the upside momentum is of such strong character that I am inclined to raise my intermediate term upside objective on the industrial average from my recent projection of 370-400 to 385-425. I would expect this objective to be achieved over the next six months. The recant rise'has been quite rapid, of course, and it is not expected to continue at its present pace. Any correction should meet support at the 370-365 level. As this letter has continually reiterated, this advance will continue to be selective. The price action of individual issues must be watched closely. Indiscrimate purchasing is not warranted. Some issues are reaching upside objectives and should be sold on current strength and the proceeds switched into other issues that will indicate higher levels. This type of action is not new. It has been going on since the advance started over five years ago. For example, in June of this year, the industrial average was around 330. Both General Electric and U. S. Steel were selling at around 47. Now four months later, the average is over 45 pOints higher and U.S.Steel is 14 points higher, but General Electric is 4 points lower. WESTERN UNION TELEGRAFH COMFANY Statistics While Western Union has ad- vanced quite sharply in price Current Market 67 since the stock was first men- Current Dividend 3.00 tioned several months ago in my Current Yield 4.4 wires and letters, it still appears to be an attractive Debt 44.4 million purchase for long term capital Preferred Stock appreciation. Recent earnings Common Stock (Shs.) 1,231,070 figures have been quite im- pressive. Tne nine months Net Per Share, 1953 6.77-A earnings of 4.50 per share Net Per Share, 1954 7.00-E just about equalled the 4.53 earned in the like 1953 period, Gross Oper.Revenue,1953, 220 million but third quarter earnings were Gross Oper.Revenue,1954, 218 million-E 1.82 as compared to 941 in 1953. Even more impressive was Market Range, 1952-1954 67 3/8-35 3/4 the earnings statement for the month of September, 1954. Earn- A – Excludes non-recurring income ings are issued monthly and this of 4.88 in 1953 year's September earnings equal- E – Estimated led 811, the highest comparable figure in twenty-five years, as against 461 in September, 1953. It appears that 1953 earnings of 6.77 a share, the highest Since 1947, will be surpassed in 1954. Western Union has done a tremendous job of modernization and mecha- nization since the end of World War II. This former prime blue chip sold at 272 in 1929 and 96 in 1936. It paid continuous dividends from 1874 through 1932 with 19261931 dividends equalling 8 per share. Since that time it has been plagued by high labor costs and the obsolescence of the old telegraph system. This has gradually been changed in recent years. In 1945, the company needed almost 65,000 employees to produce 192 million in gross operating revenues. In 1954, 39,000 employees will pro- duce approximately 218 million. A vast research program has unearthed – -2- entirely nevI techniques in the transmittal of written messages and the company, because of these new developments, now appears to be an expanding growth situation rather than the stagnant backward company of 1932 to 1945. Under the able management of VI. F. Marshall, the Presi- dent of the company, and his associates, Western Union has moved out of the real estate business into the electronics industry. For example, one of the greatest developments in communications is a machine called Desk-Fax which sends or receives telegrams in facsimile by the mere push of a button. This machine, when installed in business offices, cuts down labor costs considerably. By the end of 1954, twenty-thousand ' machineswill blnstalledand will.be s,e.nd;i.ng. andrcS'ivingtelegrams – – at- the rate of 16 million -annually —J..nother new development 'in- the fae'- simile field, Intrafax, sends messages within a single organization. It is used by (to mention only a few) organizations like ,merican I-irlines, American Express, American Red Cross, Bank of America, Bendix, Chemical Bank, E.I.duPont, Eastman Kodak, Federal Reserve Bank, Ford Motor, General Electric, Pan-merican, Standard Oil and U. S. Steel. In addition, there are 22,000 business offices equipped with teleprinter machines and private wires that are connected with tele- graph centers. Western Union is expanding private wire and facsimile services. A private wire system is being completed with the U.S.General Services Administration, providing a 15,000 mile nation-wide network. Since its merger with Postal Telegraph in 1943, the only compe- titor of Western Union is American Telephone which operates a private leased line system and a teletypewriter exchange service (TVIX). It has been recommended by Congress that Western Union acquire these communication systems and handle all domestic record communications. It would appear that this eventually will occur and that Iestern Union will be the sole company rendering telegraphic services. – — – 3jnce 1945; 'the- company-has spent over-125 mil-l-ion\lm-ost 100 a share) in mechanization and improvement of its plant and equipment. Approximately 20 million (over 15 a share) will be expended in 1954. Despite these vast expenditures, the financial condition of the company has improved. Debt has decreased from 84.7 million in 1947 to 44.4 million at December 31,1953. This amazing change, despite tremendous expenditures for modernization and improvement has been brought about by high charges for depreciation, equalling an average of approximately 11 a share annually since 1937. The cash flo(l earnings for Hestern Union in 1954, for example, will be approximately 19 a share or higher. Thus, on a cash flow basis, Vlestern Union is selling at about 3.4 – times earnings. This ratio compares favorably with airlines which are noted for selling low cash flow ratios. Sale of the company's investments in American District Telegraph and Teleregister Corporation in 1953 provided funds to retire bank loans and expand services. Book value of the common stock is roughly 140 a share. The stock has a very attractive technical pattern and has broken out on the upside of the long accumulation base in the 48-33 area in which it held since late 1950. The long term price objective appears tl2 be weI! over 100 share. ,.. EDMUND \11. TABELL vlf.lSTON & CO.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 19, 1954

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 19, 1954

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— – -r. Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW YORI( STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCK AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO (Sw.tmldl OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECTEG BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TABELL'S MARKET LEnER November 19, 1954 FAN AMERICfN WORLD AIRWAYS Statistics The air transport stocks have shown exceptionally good techni- Current Market 17 cal action in recent months. From CUrrent Dividend SOl the lowest relative strength ra- Current Yield 4.7 ting of forty-six groups charted in May, the airlines have advanced Debt Frefer-red S-tock 43,125,000 to a position in the five highest –ra-ted – groups Mos t—4-nd-ividua-l–J.-r Common Stock (Shs.) 6,096,722 line issues indicate higher levels over both the intermediate and Net Fer Share,1952-A 1.09 lenger term, but the most favorabl Net Per Share,1953-il 1. 76 technical pattern in the group, in my opinion, is Pan American World Gross Revenues,1952 – 205 million Airways. From a technical viewpoin Gross Revenues,1953 21S million the pattern indicates an interme- diate term objective of 19-23 and Market Range, 1945-1954 29 -S a long term objective of 27-35.In an unfavorable general markt,ran ,'c – Inc ludes 661 in capital gains. j',merican would meet support in the 13-12 area. Thus, the upside potenr tial over the longer term appears to be lS points higher or over 100 as compared to temporarily five points lower or 30. This is a favorable technical ratiO. Pan American was incorporated in 1927. The company has grown from a minute route stretching from Key Hest to Cuba to the world's largest air- line with un international system reaching seventy countries and colonies on all six continents of the globe. The compaBy carries the American flag -to- most- pa-rts – of -theworld-f an i,meri-c-an opera-tes -about,-eG, GeO'-route- miles with an air fleet including 2S Stratocruisers, 45 C-6-Bs, 3 C-6-As, S L-49 Constellations, 10 Convair 240s, 26 Dc-4s and 7 DC-3s. On order are 7 DC-7-Bs for delivery in 1955 and 3 British jet planes (Comet III) and 15 DC-7-Cs for delivery in 1956. The operations of the company are divided into three divisions. The Atlantic Division originates from New York, Boston,Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit and covers routes to Great Britain, Europe,Near East, Far East and Africa. The Latin-American Division starts from New York, Miami, New Orleans, Houston and Brownsville and reaches out to the Caribbean and Central American areas and to the entire east coast of South merica. The Pacific-Alaskan Division originates from San FranciSCO, Los hngeles, ort- land and Seattle and covers Pacific Islands, Far East, ustralia and Alaska. 50-owned Pan American Grace f,irways (Panagra), operates from the United States through MeXico and Central America to the west coast of South hmerica. Pan American's wholly-owned subsidiary, Intercontinental Hotels Corporation, owns nine hotels in South i'.merica, Mexico and Bermuda. Three were opened in 1953. Economic conditions have improved sharply in most foreign countries and this, together with probable convertibility of currencies, should help Pan American in the near future. The company has an interest in several small airlines and has a con- t-ra-ct to operate 'and maintain the -flir Force guided missile testing project at Cocoa, Florida. The company's operating revenues have growr. from 20 million in 1939 to almost 21S millionin 1953 or an increase of over 100C. Net income has not shown a proportionate increase, but has advanced from about 2 million in 1939 to almost 11 million in 1953. The two main reasons for the relatively poor earnings record up to 1952 have been higher postwar expansion costs and delay in establishing permanent mail rates. Ihile the majority of airlines have received permanent mail rates,Fan American is still operating under temporary rates for the Atlantic Division from 1946 to date, for American Overseas .irlines (purchased by Fan I,merican in 1950) from 1946 to 1950 and for the Latin I'merican Division for the year 1952. In 1952 and 1953, the Civil Aeronautics Board awarded the Latin-American .. …….,,a'li…..iiaiia-., – – –.. – '—– – Dlvision almost 8 million in back mail pay covering 1948 to 1953. In 1953 a permanent rate was established for this diviSion which was 5 million greater than that previously received. Fermanent mail rates for the Atlantic Division are currently being negotiated and involve a considerable claim for back payments since 1946. It is expected that the low temporary mail service payments will be substantially increased on a permanent baSis. It would seem that payment for the carriage of United States mail internationally should be made at rates fixed by the postal administrations of the world as members of the Universal Postal Union, a body to which the United States has adhered, by treaty, Since the last century. hs a member of this world wide body, the United States overnment compensates foreign-flag airlines for the transportation of United States mail at Universal Postal Union rates, which are higher than the rates paid United states-flag carriers for Similar transporta- tion. There appears to be no justification for this discrimination against United States-flag carriers rendering equivalent service. – TempoFarymai-l…-rates generallyprovide,for Gpel'ating-exp.ensesl3u-t-, do not take into consideration return en invested capital. Tbs another reason for anticipating a higher permanent rate than the present tempo- rary rate on the btlantic Division. This diVision is the most important division of the company and may be increasingly more so in the future. Establishment of permanent mail rates will go a long way toward eliminating the prejudice that Pan American is a speculative situation because of its dependence on direct subsidi'e s for overseas service. With the establishment of higher permanent mail service rates,this 'sab8Ldy would be lowered by a corresponding amount. 1,11 domestic air- lines formerly had large government subsidies,but only a few smaller lines now receive subsidies. On most domestic airlines, the mail pay- ments have been reduced to a point where thy only compensate for the actual service charge for carrying mail. Because Fan Icmerican operates in a world-wide field, it has had special problems which it has taken longer to solve, but the prospect of higher permanent mail rates and lower operating expenses should result in a higher earnings pattern over the near future. This has been evident in 1954 results. Earnings are published on an annual basis only so there is no interim comparison with the 1.76 earned in 1953 of which 661 was in capital gains.Operating reve- .– nues-f'Gr; the- nLnemontBs -enEleEl September 30)954 -increased,l2e m-i-llion or 8 over the 1953 nine months, and operating expenses were up less than 10 million, or 6.8. This resulted in a 10.8 gain in net income, after taxes, for the nine months. It is difficult to estimate just what 1954 earnings will be because of the uncertainty regarding the amount of capital gains to be shown. However, 1954 earnings should be above 1953. As the company in the past has paid out around 50 of earnings in diVi- dends, it is possible that a year-end extra may be declared. The com- pany has declared 801 in dividends so far in 1954. Annual depreciation charges are expected to continue at 17-20 million (2.80 – 3.30 a share) annually for the next two or three years. Thus the cash flow earnings are around 5.00-5.75 a share,but company is refunding its debt over the next several years and a repayment of 11.6 million is due in 1954. These repayments will increase to 14.7 million in 1955 and 1956. These will be amply covered by depreciation charges. Pan i,merican has a book value of 17.06 as of December 31st,1953. At its current price it 'is selling at about book value. t, comparison with other airlines shows it is selling lower in relation to its book value than most other airlines. Price 195'3 Book Value – Pan J-.merican 17 '17 .06 hmerican Airlines 19 8.08 Capital 18 13.04 Eastern 36 24.07 Northwest 15 17.05 Trans-vlorld 25 15.62 United 35 27.53 Pan l.merican has progressive management as witness its recent in- auguration of a plan that sells trips and vacations on the installment plan. Its cargo operations have been showing excellent results. All in all, the stock appears to be in a position to discount the improving growth position of the company. EDMUND y,l. ThBELL IAlSTON & CO.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – November 26, 1954

Tabell’s Market Letter – November 26, 1954

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Walston &- Co. MEMBERS NEW 'fORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER LEADING STOCI( AND COMMODITY EXCHANGES NEW YORK PHILADELPHIA LOS ANGELES SAN FRANCISCO LUGANO iSw,tdd) OFFICES COAST TO COAST CONNECHC BY DIRECT PRIVATE WIRE SYSTEM TAB Ell'S MARKET LETTER In September of 1948, over six years ago, I issued a market letter that caused a bit of comment. ht that time, the Dow-Jones industrial averages were around 180 and the projections mentioned in the letter ap- peared quite fantastic to most observers. The final paragraphs of the letter follow. The 'fifth, or final advancing phase, will be an upsurge carry- ing into the middle 1950s. This will be the dynamic upswing with over-speculation and heavy public participation. The pattern is not complete as regards the ultimate price ob- – J e-ctivefor' this final- advancing -phase,-butthe-DowJones -.,., – – industrials should sell above the 1929 high of 386. A preli- minary objective, calculated from the long-term base patterns, suggests about 450 in the averages. The objectives of 250 for the present phase, and 450 for the ultimate advance, seem fantastic now, but only because of the present depressed mental state. Percentagewise, the advances are quite in line with the moves of the market over the past 60 years. It must be remembered that this country is still in a long-term upward growth channel. My prediction may eventually turn out to be quite conservative. On Friday, the Dow-Jones industrials sold at an intra-day high of 388.96 and surpassed the 1929 high of 386.10 and reached the first ob- jective of my long term forecast. However, as mentioned in the last paragraph of my 1948 letter, I may have been a bit conservative. I do not believe that the present advance is the final phase. The market has not yet reached the stage of over-speculation and heavy public participation. That stage will occur, if it does occur, at a later date and should carry the industrial average to at least 600. Over the nearer term, the present advance vlill most likely top out in the ,next few months in the 385-425 area. This will be followed by a lengthy consolidation period tor- a year 'or-two with the averages holding in – a broad trading area bounded by, roughly, 385-425 on the upside and 350-330 on the downside. After that another advanCing phase will occur. However, the action of individual issues is much more important than a general market average, particularly over the nearer term. In checking over my letters,I find that I have recommended quite a few issues over the past two years or more. Some of these have been eliminated by subsequent advice to take profits or switch into other situations but, nevertheless, the list is still quite sizeable and it might be wise to review all recommendations made Since early 1952 with the purpose of cutting down the list. Some have not worked out very well and it now appears advisable to SWitch into other situations with more favorable price appreciation potentialities.In most cases, however, the recommendations have followed the anticipated technical patterns and now show substantial profits. Some have already reached their indicated upside objective and may require a lengthy consolidation period before the advance is resumed.In capital appreciation accounts, it might be advisable to switch into other issues that still indicate higher levels. In any event, issues that have reached upside objectives hardly appear worthwhile candidtes for immediate purchase and will be eliminated from the list until a new pattern forms. A complete review of all issues recommended-since early 1952 -and not subsequently-eliminated, start-s below and will be completed in the next letter. ABBOTT LABORATORIES (44) has held in the 40-49 range since mid-1952 .,f \ I and appears to be building up a potential base area. The long term objective is 6o-70,but there is no indication of an immediate move. This good quality issue sold as high as 64 in 1952. 1.dvise retention and purchase for patient holding. ALLEGHANY CORP. (5) was recently recommended at 3 3/4.It is a specula- tive issue and should be bought only in long term capital appreciation accounts willing to exercise considerable patience.However,the long term objective is substantial with an indication of 11 followed by a later 17. Thh memorolndum II not to be construed 1111 offer or lollcitatlon of offln to buy or lei I IiIny s,(untles From time 10 me Whlon & Co. or an pu'n thereof mlly hlille an ,nt,relt ,n some or all of the M,u,ili mentioned h,rn The for,gOlng mlll,ri.' h41 bn-pr,pllred b.Ii UI as lit metier of in',rmll,ion onl, It I! blUed upon inlormolltoon belielted relible but not nec'''.tll, compl,t., is nol qUII'lIn',eel II' ,cur.t. or finel, and 11 not .ntended 10 loreclol. ,ndependenl IncIU''' — ..,.,., it -2- ALLEGHENY LUDLUM STEEL (42) was originally recommended in the 33-28 area. t has just broken out on the upside of the long 26-39 trading area in which it has held since mid-1952. The long term upside objective is 56-63. Would continue to hold and buy on minor price dips.There is now support at 39-37. ALLIED STORES (51) has been on my recommended list for a long time with an original recommendation at 38. The first objective appears to be 55-58 where there is some overhead supply. The longer term indication is above that level, but considerable consolidation may be needed first. A good income holding security with a higher price potential. ALLIS CHALMERS (72) originally entered my list in the 48-45 area. It re- cently reached a high of 74. Immediate objective is not clear, but would continue to hold for long term objective of 90. There is downside support at 67-65 where stock should be bought. AMERICAN -G-HAIN (38-)-has-reached cnewhigh territory ,at-38., The -long term— objective is 55-60. The nearer term objective is 39-43. The stock yields over 6 at present prices. There is downside support at 35-34. Continue to hold and buy on minor weakness. AMERICAN ENCAUSTIC TILING (12) This low-priced issue in the building field originally mentioned around 7. The long term objective is 17-19 so the stock still has a sizeable upside potential over the longer term.Continue to hold and buy on minor declines. AMERICAN NEviS (24) The downside breakout of the long 37-29 trading area was bearish and indicated lower levels. This has possibly been the worst acting issue in our recommended list. If not sold in the downside break- out, would continue to hold as the potential base formed indicates a possible return to the 29-31 level. Would sell 1n that area. AMERICAN POTASH & CHEMICAL (65) was first mentioned in my letter at an equivalent price of 40. (The stock was ex-dividend 10 stock on Friday. The high before the dividend was 73). The stock dividend obscures the immediate pattern but the stock should be held and bought on all minor price declines as the longer term objective is 108-118. AMERICAN RADIATOR & STANDARD SANITARY (23) has had a sharp price rise,but still indicates higher levels particularly over the longer term. The up- side penetration of the eight-year old base at 12-17 indicates 27 followed by –a- long -term40. RecerJ.-t- high was 24.-Hold- andb1iy-on -minor crecl-ines-. AMERICAN SEATING (31) has been in a slow uptrend. Most likely this trend will continue but for long term growth would prefer Hooker Electro-Chemical or Victor Chemical and advise switching into either of these issues. AMERICAN TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH (175) still yields slightly over 5 and I conSider it an excellent purchase where income and safety of dividend payments is the prime consideration. The intermediate objective was 171- 179 and the longer term objective is 200. AMERICAN VISCOSE (43) has broken out on the upside of the 31-39 base area. The upside potential is 52-57. Would continue to hold,but would be inclined to sell into the above mentioned areaas there is heavy overhead supply at 58 and above. . ARMSTRONG CORK (92) wa originally recommended around the 50 level. The upside potential is 95-100. This area has almost been reached. Other situa- tions appear to offer better profit opportunities and the stock is being dropped from my recommended list. ASSCCIATED DRY GOODS (28) is a recent recommendation. The long term pat- tern is not clear, but the stock has an intermediate term objective of 33-35 BABCOCK & WILCOX (71) has been on my recommended list for a long time Since its original recommendation in the 35-33 area. At present price levels it is qu.ite-close to its -upside ob.jective -of 75-80aml further profitc-poten- tials appear limited. Combustion Engineering (55) offers a better capital appreciation prospect and a switch into that issue is recommended. BALTIMORE & OHIO (32) has an attractive technical pattern. Ability to pene- trate the 1953 high of 30 indicates an upside potential of 43 over the in- termediate term. Would continue to hold and buy on minor price declines. There is support at 30-28. BEAUNIT MILLS (22) has been showing mediocre price action until recently, but the ability to break out of the 14-22 area now indicates 27 followed by 31. Would continue to hold. BELL & HOltJELL (27) is showing improving action. The intermediate term pat- tern suggests 35-37 with an even more favorable potential indicated over the longer term. Hold and buy on minor declines. EDMUND vi. TABELL vlAlSTON & CO.

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