Viewing Month: September 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 05, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 05, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - September 05, 1952
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r\, I o l s ion.lIoffmon &- Goodwin NEW YORK 5, N, Y , , 35 Wall Street , '- DIGBY 4414\ PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 55'm ' TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12700 ,- , ' — '-, The action of the market over the next week or two should furnish ,-' '/a pretty definite clue as to what to expect from now untiLElection Day. – ,to,The Dow-Jones industrial average is in an almost perfect technical position-' give a decisive indication as to the direction of the next twenty or , 'thirty point move. The industrials, at the August 26th low of 272.28, had ; retraced almost exactly one-third of the 26.77 advance from the May low of -51t. 70 to the early August high of 281.47. This one-third retracement is ,-, 'the minimum amount required for a normal correction of an intermediate move As to the next step, the average then regained the normal two-thirds of 9.19 ',dec line to reach a high of 278.16 on September 3rd. It has now spent two days in consolidation with a low of 275.18. Ability to move acove the nor -'mal two-third retracement high of 278.16 would indicate a continuation of – the main advance and a topping of the early August high of 281047. The up- . side objective would be somewhere in the 285-295 area. However, if the — August 26th low of 272.28 is broken, the indications would point to at leas a two-thirds retracement of the advance from the May lows. This would bring '-the average back to the 265-263 level. But a decline below 272 would also ,' ,break the uptrend line from the May low and the pattern of individual issueS' -suggest that the decline could carry down to a testing of the May low in th '-255-254 area. In any event, a breakout of the 272-278 range could be of con'– siderable importance marketwise. – ' Volume action continues indecisive. It has been several months since 'volume has reached the 1,500,000 share mark. The direction of the market on ',the day that figure is topped may also furnish a clue as to the next inter– tnediate term move. Moving averages of advancing volume continue below the I Levels reached at the February 1951, September 1951 and January 1952 highs.;– This is also true of advances and new highs. A recent compilation showed ' ''that in the twenty-month period since January 1st, 1951, 40 of the stocks 'listed on the New York Stock Exchange made their highs before March 31st, )951 or seventeen months ago. 70 made their highs in 1951 and only 30 — reach new high territory in 1952. For the same period, 30 of the listed ; , ,stocks reached their lows in 1952. In other words, the most profitable posi— tion marketwise over recent months would have been 50 long of stocks and -' – '50 short, provided the selections were correct. A study of individual issues and groups indicates that this select- ,- ive action will continue, but considerably more issues – are potentiallr -unfavorable than favorable. There are many issues that indicate either a possible ten-point advance or a possible twenty-point decline. That is \ hardly favorable odds. On the other hand, there are a relatively few like American Telephone that indicate a possible 25 or 40 point advance against -,- 8. possible 5 or 10 point drop. Several groups have vulnerable patterns. The oils are an example. 'ost stocks in this group reached their highs in January or February and their lows in April and May. In the August rally they failed to reach new ;high territory despite the fact that the averages reached new highs. If they break the April-May lows, a definite downtrend would be indicated. This has already occurred in some of the smaller issues such as Amerada and Texas & Pacific Land which have declined 20 to 25 from their highs. 'If the larger oils follow this pattern it would be 65-70 on Standard Oil -6f New Jersey, 48-45 on Texas Company and 32-30 on Socony Vacuum. Other groups with vulnerable patterns include the chemicals, metals and rubbers -and, to a lesser extent, the paper issues. On the defensive side, utilities 'and food stockS appear attractive. Other groups such as electronics, office I 'quipment, aviation, building supplies and rails might work temporarily — ,iower, but have excellent long term patterns. — ;September 5, 1952 Dow-Jones Ind. 276.50 EDMUND v. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , ' Dow-Jones Rails – 102.48 Z. f ,- Th,s have menmIonrtarnldl!udmin 15 nol some to be construed olU lin offer or lol,citation or all of the ,.curities mentioned herein Tohfeofffoerresgotoingbuymtoerrlse1ll any ,.cunties From time hu been prepared by us atso.timmettWerahotfo!,,n.forHmofafrtl'C!nn & Goodwin may only It 1 bliled ; , upon information believed reliable but ot neclluarlly complete, IS ot gUllranleed as accurate or final, and IS not Intended to foreclose Idependent InquIry -;1'-; ,- ';– , , – ,- ,— , , , ,'-' ,' ,\.1,'-,' – – — '– -..Y -. — — -.– – .!.. ;-,a…..i ;;;i.-,…..iZ-1-.;.-il-i.-,-i.ifi&iO,ii.'-..,ha..w….,.; .-I

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 12, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 12, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - September 12, 1952
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'Olstoll.11offmon &- Goodwin NEW YORK 5. N Y 35 Wall Streef DIGBY '14141 PHILADELPHIA 2. PA 1420 Walnut Streef PENNYPACKER 5-5977 ' TAB ELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13. CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 93232 SAN FRANCISCO 4. CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12100 In last week's letter we expressed the opinion that the market was in a technlcal position to give a definite indication as to the direct- , ', ion of the next twenty or thirty-point move in the Dow-Jones industrial i average. The signal has been given and the indications are that the market is in at least an intermediate downtrend. The signal seems quite con- ' clusive because (1) the August lows of 272.28 and 100.94 on the DowJones industrials and rails were both decisively penetrated to reach 269.56 and 97.35. (2) the volume increased to over 1,500,000 shares on the decline, (3) the uptrend lines from the May-June lows on both averages were decisively penetrated on the downside. t Wednesday's low, the short term technical indicator temporarily reached oversold territory and gave a buy signal. I would consider this signal only as an indication of a technical correction of the sharp decline and would not expect the industrials to rally much above 273-275 area. Thursday's high was 273.25. If the market follows a normal technical pattern, the proc,edure would be a continuation of the decline to about 265-263 in the indus- ,. trials and 95-93 in the rails. This would be followed by a technical rally back to 269-270 and 99-100 and then a testing of the lows reach- ed on the previous decline. However, it should be borne in mind that the selective action of individual issues witnessed in the summer rally will also continue during any decline. Despite the action of the averages, many stocks have been in downtrends since February, 1951 and have already declined 25 to 40. Some of these issues may e near buying levels regardless of the action of the averages. Other issues and groups are vulnerable to further decline, particu- larly oils, chemicals, and other issues that have risen sharply over the past year. LONG TERM INVESTME Despite the fact that the intermediate term trend may be down, I continue to advise a 100 invested position in accounts concerned mainly with income and longer term appreciation. Holdings of sound, gooe quality, dividend paying issues should be retained, particularly when bought at considerably lower price levels. The longer term trend indicates ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues should continue dividend payments at approximately present rates. Further weakness should present buying opportunities in selected issues. For immediate purchase would suggest American Telephone (153 7/8). Also suggest the following in the price ranes mentioned Abbott Laboratories (46-44), American Seating (20-18), Armstrong Cork (50-48), Burrouhs (17), Celanese (40-35l Lone Star Cement (27-25),Owens Illinois (70), Pacific Mills (31-28), Parke Davis (40), Western Auto Supply (49-46). CAPITAL APPRECIATION The recent sell-off in individual issues, and more recently in the averages, confirms my policy of having a goodly portion of funds liquid in risk accounts concerned mainly ,;' with capital appreciation over a six months period. If funds are entirely tied up in a 100 invested position, there is no opportunity of purchasing issues at bargain levels. A list of issues that are near buying levels will be issued ' shortly. EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , September 12, 1952 Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 271.02 98.50 7- – .,, , , ' , ThIS memorHldum is not to be conlitrued 0111 an offer or ohcitlltion of offers to buy or sell any securities From time to time W .. lston, Hoffman & GoodWin may hay. an Interest in lome or 1111 of the leCurities mentioned herein The foregOing materllli has been prepared by UJ a! ill matter of mformation only It if b'lied upon ,nformatlon believed rellflb/e but not nece!sflniy complete, n not jUlIrilinteed aJ ac.curate or final, and is not Intended to foreclose independent inquiry 1(' ,' ,.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 19, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 19, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - September 19, 1952
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l\Tolstol1.noffl11on &Goodnin , .' . r . – ''- -, NEW YORK 5, N, Y 3S Wall Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-59n TABELL'S MARKET LETTER LOS ANGELES 13, CAliF 550 South Spring Street MADISON ,,)2)2 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 265 Montgomery Street SUTTER 1-27DO , The market rallied on Friday afternoon led by the televisions. The Dow-Jones industrials closed at 270.55 and the rails at 99.15 after sell- ing down to extreme lows of 267.08 and 96.87 on Tuesday. At this moment, there is overhead supply at 273-275 in the industrials and at 101 in the , , , rail average. ', ' Despite the fact that the intermediate trend has been downward, I ex- Z .! pect the same selective action in individual issues that was part of the recent advance. Individual issues may be near or at their lows at present , ,'.. levels even though the averages work lower. I am listing below my recommen-;- ', ded list of investment and capital appreciation issues together with new recommendations to be bOught only on weakness, in the buying ranges specifid. ,,' LONG TERM INVESTMENT Despite the fact that ,the intermediate term trena' ;,' may be down, I continue to advise a 100 invested position in accounts con- cerned mainly with income and longer-term appreciation. Holdings of sound, c,c , ., good quality, dividend paying issues shoUld be retained, particularly when' , I, bought at considerably lower price levels. The longer term trend indicates ' . ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues should continue divi- ' , dend payments at approximately present rates. Further weakness should pre- , sent buying opportunities in selected issues Price BUin flange Price Buying Range , i Abbott Lab. (A) 45 6- 3 Hall Printing 16 16-15 ,,' , Allis Chal. C' -Arner.Chain ' ' Arner. Rad. 50 48-45 28 27-25 14 14-13 Joy Mfg. Lone Star C. Lowenstein 33 27 32 33-30 27-25 30-28 F,- ;,, -Arner. Seat. 21 ;, Arner. Tel. (A) 153 20-18 Mkt. Mont. Ward OWens lIl.G. 60 71 60-57 70-65 ,,' ;; ' lE-Armstrong Cork 52 50-48 Pacific Mills 31 31-29 '; -Babcock & Wil. 34 35-33 Parke Davis 44 42-40 ;' Blaw Knox 16 ' Bucyrus-Erie 24 -Burlington Mills 17 17-15 23-22 16-14 Penn.Salt (A) Pfizer Phillips Pete 51 33 56 50-45 32-28 53-50 ,-r ' ; Burroughs Add. 18 17 -16 Shamrock Oil 39 36-34 Celanese 41 40-35 Smith (A.O.) 35 34-32 -Chain Belt (A) 36 35-33 Sylvania El. 37 32-30 , Columbia Gas (A) 13 13-12 U.S.Gypsum 115 110-105 Elliott Co. 28 27-25 Western Auto S. 49 49-46 CAPITAL APPRECIATION I have advised a 75 to 50 liquid pOSition in risk accounts concerned mainly with capital appreciation over a six months ' period. The recent sell-off confirms the advisability of this course of ac–' , tion. However, on further weakness would bring accounts up to 60 invested .;, Buy only on weakness to the buying ranges specified Admiral (Al All. Ludlum Balt.& Ohio Price 31 35 21 Buying Range 27-25 Hercules Motors 33-28 Interchemical 20-18 Inter.Tel & Tel Price 18 i – Buying Range ', 18-16 ;, 20-18 17-15 Beaunit Mills ..' Briggs Mfg. Canadian Brew. Carrier (Al Certainteed '(,lic .E.lIL Chic.Gt.West. , Climax Molyb. , Col.Broad. ,! Denver Rio G. ,', ,Ell.st .Airlines Fansteel ,,' Ferro Corp.(A) 20 36 18 29 14 17 21 36 n36 22 25 28 21-19 35-34 18-16 27-25 14-13 17-16 20-18 33-30 33-30 70-65 22-20 24-22 28-26 Mo.-Kan.Tex.pfd. 63 Minn.St.P.& SSM 16 Natl.Distillers 22 N.Y.Air Brake (Al 20 Paramount 24 Pittston Co. 29 Southern Rwy. 64' Universal Pic. 13 Vanadium Corp. 40 Warren Petroleum 29 Western Air. (Al 11 Western Md. 20 Western Pac. 51 58-55 17-15 23-21 20-18 23-21 27-25 60-56 12-11 40-37 28-25 11-10 20-18 50-46 , -\ ' \ ,, , , Gray Mfg. 14 14-12 Previously in recommended list. A-Offered by prospectus only. ,', 8eptember 19, 1952 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON. HOFFMAN & GOODWIN , Thh memorandum IS nol to be comtru.d liS an offer or soluitlltion of offers to buy or Sell lIny securities from time to me Walston, Hoffman & GoodWin may hllve an intered in so,. or all of the leeurltlel mentioned herein The foregOing mateTlel has been prepared by U as a matter of information only It 1 baled lf'–''- i r ,o if,r.n Iv,e \ie u nt nelIriIY ompee I' t ;Mante&d as aeeurat r ia';d i,nt,-i'nedOS n,-en; Ulry ,,,

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1952

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1952

Tabell's Market Letter - September 26, 1952
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NEW YORK 5, N, Y 35 W… II Street DIGBY 44141 PHILADELPHIA 2, PA 1420 Walnut Street PENNYPACKER 5-5977 TABELL'S MARKET LETTER '- LOS ANGELES 13, CALIF 550 South Spring Street MADISON 322 SAN FRANCISCO 4, CALIF 2b5 Montgomery Street SUTTER 12100 … ' , ,I ,I '\ \1 I The market,at the week's highs of 273.74 in the Dow-Jones industrials ,and 102.92 in the rails, had rallied back to the first overhead resistance ,,', 'reas of 273-275 and 101-103. The diverse action of recent months continued ,during the five-day rally with some groups like the electronics and rails ,,' ,advancing sharply while other groups like the oils, metals and chemicals -', rallied feebly and appeared to be under selling pressure. There was even ';' , diverse action within the same groups with American Cyanamid selling around' , the year's high at the same time that Monsanto Chemical was selling near '', 'the year's low. I expect this selective action to continue despite the fact' ,that the averages appear to be in at least an intermediate downtrend. Woul' ,continue the policy of liquidating issues with vulnerable technical patterns, ,during periods of strength and acquiring issues with favorable, long term' 'patterns only during periods of general markt weakness. LONG TERM INVESTMENT Despite the fact that the intermediate term trend may be down, I continue to advise a 100 invested position in accounts' , concerned mainly with income and longer-term appreCiation. Holdings of sound, ,.good quality, dividend paying issues should be retained, particularly when ,' ,'bought at considerably lower price levels. The longer term trend indicates, ,'ultimately higher price levels and good grade issues should continue divi- ,,' dend payments at approximately present rates. Further weakness should pre- ', , sent buying opportunities in selected issues ;,' ;' ALLIS CHALMERS (50) The stock is in a slow uptrend channel from the;;,;' ; 1949 low of 26. The outer limits are now 57 and 36. Stock br9ke out of the ' ',four-year old 26-40 range and indicated 50-55 followed by a longer term , ,65-75. The trading range formed in the 40-47 range indicated 53-57. The '1951 high was 54. Stock has held recently in the 54-48 range. An upside ; penetration would indicate 60-62. ', , JOY MANUFACTURING (32) has formed a head and shoulders bottom at ' 31-24-28 with a top at 40. A breakout on the upside of this range would inr dicate 60. Would buy on all price dips. February high was 38. There is 'strong support in the 33-30 range. PHILLIPS PETROLEUM (57) Stock is in an uptrend channel from the '1949 low of 27. The outer limits of the channel are now at 53 and 70. ; The upside objectives of the 27-32 base were 51 and 67. First objective ,- was reached at 1951 high of 54. The upside penetration of the 47-54 range ;' indicated 60-67. Recent high was 62. The minor top at 62-60 suggests a I' 1- t ',decline to 54-52 where the stock should be bought. CAPITAL APPRECIATION I have advised a 75 to 50 liquid position -;, in risk accounts concerned mainly'with capital appreciation over a six i ,IDonths period. The recent sell-off' confirms the advisability of this course;, ','of action. However, on further weakness would bring accounts up to 60 ' 'invested. ALLEGHENY LUDLUM STEEL (35) The re-accumulation area in the 37-43 ;,,, i,,range indicated 46 to 52. A high of 52 was reached in 1951. Stock held in the 52-37 area since late 1950. The downside penetration indicates 33-28. '), Would buy in the 33-28 area where there is good support. , , , rally ,c'ation t BEAUNIT MILLS (20) A higho 32 formed a trading range was 21 which is a strong su powpf oh3ri7ct hawwraesaas r. epaAecnpheretidrla. ltoeTwdhewddoaewscn1lsi9ind. eeM. tooTreh2e7tiimnadneid-I0''.', , IDay be needed to build up a base but the stock appears to be a purchase , , in the 19-21 range. , VANADIUM CORP. (41) A very wide potential base has been built up i, 'with an upside possibility of 60. The stock broke out of the seven-month ,', trading range between 34 and 40. The upside penetration indicates 50. The r Y',;recent high was 45. Buy on dips to 40-38. ,September 26, 1952 EDMUND W. TABELL WALSTON, HOFFMAN & GOODWIN Dow-Jones Industrials – 27195 Dow-Jones Rails – 101.59 ThIS memorandum il not to b. construed al an offer or ,elldtation of offers to buy or ,.11 tiny 5ecuriti From time to time Wahto. Hoffman & GoodWin may Itve In Interest in fom. or Ill of the ccmhel mentioned hltrein T foreqoinq matarial hlf been prepr&d by us 1 I m.aUer of In'Otmllh11I only It If. based upon mformtltion beheyed reliable but not neceutlrily tomplete, it not ulITanteed al atcurat. or fln,,'. and is not Intehded to foretlose Indepelldent ,nqulry. r, ,,' .., ' — / , '' ',,,' , )','',,';',',,, ,i,' ,,'''''\ .. ,Gi' lllli.,t 1,1i i a.ai. li

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