Viewing Month: September 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 02, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 02, 1947
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Technical Market Action Many individual issues have, in the past tHO months, succeeded in reaching new high terri tory for the year and a rare few, such as Mullins Manufacturing on Tuesday,have even bettered the 1946 highs. However, many individual n.il issues are still quite a bit below their 191,7 highs and considerably below their 1946 highs, as witness the list below High 1 High 1947 Last Sale Atchison, Topeka &Santa Fe R.R. 121 Atlantic Coast Line Chicago,Milwaukee & St.Paul, common Chicago & Northwestern Erie R. R. Great Northern, pfd. Gulf, Mobile & Ohio 83 38 49 1/2 23 1/8 65 3/4 30 1/4 Illinois Central Kansas Ci Southern 45 1/2 401/4 New York Central Northern PacifiC Pennsylvania R. R. 35 3/4 36 47 1/2 Seaboard Air Line Southern Pacific Southern RailViay Union PaCific 37 3/4 70 65 168 1/2 Reached High in late 1945. 99 59 14 5/8 27 5/8 12 1/2 49 5/ 14 7/8 30 28 1/2 22 3/8 22 7/8 26 7/8 24 5/8 47 1/4 50 1/2 147 83 5/8 51 1/4 9 1/8 19 3/4 9 3/4 40 1/4 12 1/2 26 5/8 22 1/2 15 1/4 20 1/2 19 167/8 44 38 1/4 139 5/8 The individual technical patterns of the rail issues are quite different Vlith some showing favorable patterns and others indic.ting that more backing and fillingund present levels is needed before much of a move is indicated. We have used only three issues in our recommended list. They are Chicago & North- western, Illinois Central and Seaboard Air Line. All three of these issues have favorable technical patterns. On the other hand, Nen York Central and Pennsylvania appear relatively unattractive and, as far 8.S price appreciation is concerned, prefe the three issues above and Northern PacifiC. The market on Tuesday continued Friday's pre-holiday rally but the volume continued small. The railS, at Tuesday's high of 45.53, were within a small fraction of the 49.62 high of August 18th Vlhich was the high after the August 11th 101V of 47.55. Ability to decisively penetrate 49.62 would be a favorable indication. The comparable figure on the industrials is 181.58. Tuesday's high was 180.56. Continue to advise purchases in 181-175 buying range. September 2, 1947 EDMUND i'f. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY ClOSings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones ReUs DOrl-Jones 65-Stock 179.81 49.32 64.54 n.. opinions eKpreued in Mlil I.tter ar. the peonal ,nterpretanotl of eharh by Mr. EJmuttd W. Tabell and are not presented as the opinions of Shield, & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 04, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 04, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 04, 1947
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Technical Market Action . United Aircraft has been one of the better acting issues during the current unsettlement. The stock is one of tho few aircraft issues that have succeeded in building up a good base pattern over the past year. Most air- craft issues reacted below their 1946 lows during the May decline but United Aircraft reached a low of 16 1/4 in late 1946 and held at 16 7/8 in May. A fairly substantial base pattern has been built up in the 17-21 range, 'J,n upe'iae penetrD'Hon would indicate an advance to the 27-30 area. The 1946 higi, las 37 3/8. The issue appears to be an intresting shorter term speculation during current, market irregularity. Thursdays close was 20 1/8. Pepsi-Cola Vias recommended for purchase in our letter of May 19th at 26 1/4. We mentioned susequently that the first resistance level wus 34. The high ras 34 1/8 and since that time it has built a minor distribution Ilrea that indicated a decline to the 29-30 area. At Thursdays ow of 29 1/2 and closing price of 29 5/8, the stock had just about reached that level. Technical indications point to higher prices for Pepsi-Cola over the intermediate term and believe it ohould be purchased on current weakness /The market sold sharply 10Vier on Thursday on slightly increased voluli1e. The 10\'15 Vlere reached in the noon hour but the market failed to rally substantially during the remainder of the days trading and the closing prices Vlere .just a fraction above the days 10.ls. HO;i8ver, at the intra-day 10Vis of 176.57 and 47.85, the averages held above last \7eeks low of 176.54 on the industrials and the August 11th low of 47.55 on the rails. Ability to hold above these points followed by an upside penetration of this weeks highs of 180.56 and 49.67 ..ould indicate a reversal of the dOlmtrend. Honever, increased volume on the dOllIlside and inability of the market to rally in the final hours of Tuesd.ys session, could possibly indie!'.te a dip to the loner part of the recently suggested 177-175 buying range before tbe marLet turns. In any event believe the market shovld be purchased during current weakness into the 177-175 area. Believe the reaction is a continuation of the correction of the 26 point advance from the May lo;,s and that the intermediate uptrmd should soon be resumed! EDMUND VI, TABELL September 4, 1947 SHIELDS & COMPANY ClOSing Dow-Jones Industrials DOll-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65 Avg. 177 .27 48.18 63.58 The opinion. ellp,….d In hi. letter ere the pet50nol int.rp……tion of cham by Mr. Edmund W. Tab.n and are not pre,ented as the opinions of Sht.fd. , Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 08, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 08, 1947
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Technical Market Action The current market weakness has brought a number of issues back into buying ranges. A few of these are noted below. Phelps Dodge was recommended for purchase at 38 1/4 in our letter of June 18th. The July-August high was 44 1/8. At Monday's close of 39 3/8, the stock is in the strong 40-37 support level. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 totalled 4.66 a common share. Believe the stock is in a. buying range. Mullins Manufacturing was recommended at 19 3/4 in our letter of ' fAUgust 11th. The stock reached 23 1/4 last week which was a new high for both 1946 and 1947. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 totalled 4.07 a common share. Monday's close'was 21 1/4. There is good support slightly below present levels. The technical pattern is attractive. Wheeling Steel reached a high of 43 3/4 last week. This level Vias just a shade below the February high of 44 1/2. Monday's close was 40. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 Vlere 8.57 a common share. The stock has an excellent technical pattern and should be bought on current weakness. Elliott Company was recommended at 19 1/2 in our letter of August 11th. IThe stock reached a new high of 24 1/4 last week. Would watch this issue carefully. Should meet good support in the 22-20 area. Other issues at or near support levels include Colorado Fuel & Iron, Fansteel Metallurgical, Flintkote, National Supply, Ohio Oil, Pepsi-Cola, Westinghouse Electric and Youngstovm Sheet & Tube. J'Both a.erages on Monday reached new low territory since the July highs of 187.66 and 51.92. The intra-day lows were 174.79 and 46.98. The close was slightly above the lows at 175.14 and 47.14. Volume continued relatively small at 830,000 shares. The industrial average has noVi reached the lower part of our suggested 177-175 buying range. Climactic selling may teke the averages somewhat lOVier but believe the market is near an important buying point. A close perusal of the technical patterns indiCates that the worst pattern at the moment would indicate 171 and 44. Believe the low will be between last nights close and the figures mentioned above. Would replace commitments sold on the July and August strength on current Vleakness. EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY September 8, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails DOVi-Jones 65-Stock 175.14 47.14 62.69 ch.,.. 'n.. opiniOnt presMd In thi' lettM .re the personal interpretetion of trwt,. Echnund W. T.b.U and .r. not presantad al the opinions of Shi.ld, I Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 10, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 10, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 10, 1947
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Technical Market Acdon The market, as measured by the various averages, has been in an extended trading range for twelve months. During this period the DOVi-Jones industrial average has held within an area between approximately 187 and 161. The upper limit of this ranbe has been reached twice, in February of this year and again in July. The lower limit also has been reached on two occaSions, in October 1946 and May 1947. The range in the Dow-Jones rail average has been approximately 53 and 41, with the May low below the October low. The same type of action is noted in the combined averages with the New York Herald-Tribune 100-Stock Average (now 120) holding in approximately the 114-124 range and the New York Times 50 Combined Stock average (now 116) holding in the 106-124 range. What is the significance of this acton Is the trading range a' period of accumulation prior to a sharp rise, or is it a further period of distribution prior to a further decline The move in either direction could be substantial. For example, the base count implication implies the possibility of 210-235 in the Dow-Jones industrial average, 135-142 in the New York Herald-Tribune average and 145-l60 in the New York Times average. On the other hand, the downSide implications, as formed by the tops across the February and May highs, nre also substantial although not as wide as the upSide. The downside implications are 158-154 on DOVi-Jones industrials, III on the NeVI York Herald-Tribune average and 97-94 on the New York Times aV8rage. Is the trading range'accumulation or distribution In my opinion, the probabilities strongly favor the accumulation Side. The reasons have been stated in this letter before but they will be reviewed again in our next letter. Believe the next imporknt move in the market will be on the upSide. The stage has been set and the upside implications of the base patterns in individual issues are substantial. The fundamental background of earnings and prospects is favorable. All that is needed is a change in the public psychology from its present atti tude of fear and uncertainty. When that occurs, the pace of the rise will be dynamic. Continue to advocate the purchase, aong others, of bm&r1Qgn. Barnsdall Oil, E. w. BliSS, Chrysler, Cities Service, Colorado Fuel & Iron, Deere & Company, Doehler JarVis, Elliott Company, Evans Products, Fansteel, Flintkote, General Cable, IllinoiS Central, Joy Manufacturing, Mullins Manufacturing, National Supply, Pepsi-Cola, Rayonier, Sharon Steel, Standard Gas, pfd., Union Bag, United Aircraft, necling Steel, Worthington Pump and Youngstown Sheet & Tube. EO!!UND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY September 10, 1947 Closing Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails 176.24 48.18 Dow-Jones 65-Stock 63.30 Tlt oplnion, elpt'et.ed in this letter .r. the pel5OnAI intewpretalon of char. by Mr. Edmund W. labell end .r. not presented !II the opinions of Shield, & Campany.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 15, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 15, 1947
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Technical Market Action As stc.ted previously, believe the wide trading range of the past twelve months has been a period of slow re-c.ccunulation with stocks passing from vleaker into stronger hands. My reasons for such a conclusion are based entirely on technical considerations. They are (1) At the lows of October 1946 and May 1947, the averages and the great majority of individual issues had just about reached the downside objectives outlined by the distribution areas of early 1946. (2) The tremendous turnover in the 170-160 range of the Dovr-Jones industrials and the testing of this level on at least half a dozen different occasions, establishes this area as an extremely strong support zone. (3) Since the decline of September 1946, each subsequent decline has been on a lessened volume of trading indicating a gradual drying up of liquidation. (4) e technical action of individual issues confirms the implications of the general nerket action. Numerous issues reached their downside objectives alnost a year ago, have built up substantial base pattE,rn, and have penetrated thcse areas on the upside. The oils and some of the chemicals are outstanding examples of this type of action. Other individual issues have built Sizeable accumulation areao and are near upside breakouts. Others still may require some further backing and filling. In the majority of cases, the base areas at have been built up are substantial and indicate considerably higher levels on 811 upside penetration. There are other technical reasons that substantiate the belief that the next important move will be sharply higher,but the four given above are the most important. IWill the market work much lower at this time I do not believe the market will work much below last weekI 5 lows of 174.02 and 46.91. The decline from the July highs has amounted to a correction of approximately 52 of the advance in the industrials and approxir.lately 44 in the rails. The market has been in a declining phase for the past seven weeks but the pace of the decline has been much slov7or and the volume much lower than in the previous ten-week cdvrunce from the May lows to the July highs. Believe the odds favor the lows of last week being the lows of the correctionary decline. In any event, would expect the area between here and 171 to be a buying zone. When will a sharp upard move start The answer to that depends on the intangible element of public psycholocy. The stge is all set for a sharp rise. The necessary technical patterns and base formations have already been built up. A large short 1nterest and plenty of potential buying po..er is also present. Many stocks are selling at ridiculously low prices cOl'lpared with present earnings. The background is inflationarY. The one missing element is a public willing to buy securities. Just what' is needed to start the lat.cnt buying power is not known, but after over a year of bearishness it would seem reasonable to expect a nearby change in the present mood of discouragement and fear. September 15, 1947 EDMUND II. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-Stock 175.30 47.69 62.92 TM opinions expreued in thi' letter are the persona! interpretation of charta by Mr. Edmund W. T.b.n and lire not prelented 1 the opinion. of Sht.ld, .. Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 17, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 17, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 17, 1947
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Technical Market Action In the letter of June 27th t reviewed mY recommendations of the prev10ua ten months and selected appr6mately sixt,y stooks that ppeared extremely attractive from a technioal point of View. Since that time a few additional issues have been added. The list is large ilfla is composed of all sorts and varieties of issues. Some are ill the high priced group and lsome are in lower priced catego17' Some are semi-investment in chlll'acter while others are extremely specule.tive. Some are selling near the highs of the year and others are near the year's low. How- ever, from a teohnical point of' view, they have two points in common. First, at some time during the past twelve months they have reached their downside object- ives as outlined by the broad distribution tops of early 1946. Second, they have formed large, potential base areas that would indicate substantially higher levels 1 penetrated on the upside. In some instances, the upside penetration has alrea occurred. These issues have been underlined in the list below; – Adams Express, American Cyanamid, JIIiIer1eEll'l Pells. 1\ b1g\l, Amei9sR !lata';. JI!l!eIi.canWll-terVlorlta,. Atlas Corp. ,Barnsdall Oil, Bliss (E.W.), Borg Warner, Campbell Wyant, Chicago NorthWest, ChrYsler, Cities Service. Colorado Fuel, -GPIIB8 , Crown Cork & Seal, Deere & Co., Doehler.larv1s, Eagle Picher, Eastern Airlines, E9setRB iiMteJoitIi, Electric Power & Light, Elliott Co., Evans Products, Fansteel, Fl.intkote, General cable, General Motors, General RailwEW Signal, Gulf' Oil, Houlle Hershey, HOUSton Oil, HeWi S8, Illinois Central, Interlake Iron, International Mineral, Jones & Laughlin, Joy Manufacturing. IstetuS–e w9!P Ford, Mullins ManufaCturing. MurrEW Corp., National Supply, Ohio Oil, Oliver Corp., Pepsi-Cola. Phelps Dodge, Pure Oil,Rayonier. Revere Copper, Seaboard Airline, Seaboard 011, Shamrock Oil, Sharon Steel, Simmons, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Standard Gas 4 pfd., Texas Pacific Coal &Oil, Union Bag & Paper, Union Carbide, Union Pacific, United Aircraft, U-. S. & Foreign Securities, U. S. Pipa, U.S.Steel, Westinghouse Airbrake, Wk .11ng Steel Worthington Pump, Youngatown Sheet & Tube TIeatinghouse Electric. The list does not pretend to be all-inclusive. It does contein what appears to be the most attractive issues in the most attractive groups. Most of them have .been recommended in the past during dips into our often recommended 160-170 Dow.Jones industrial average range. Two neVI issues, Union Carbide (closing 104i) -and Union Pacific (closing l.3Qt) are mentioned for the first time todfW as additions .for the semi-investment t;ype account. Wednesd81's market action was very impressive. On volume of l,260,OOO shares, the first over-a-million day since July .30th, the industrial average advanced 2.0.3 to close at 178.7.3 and the rails olosed 6.3 cents higher at 48.8;. Monday's reaotion to 174.82 and 47 .38 tested last week's lows of 174.02 and 46.91. Wednesday's rally sharply penetrated last week's rally highs of 177.ll and 4S .40. The minor trend is now indicated ns up. This is first change of trend since the seven week correction from the July highs. It seemingly indicates that the .correction has been completed and the uptrend resumed. While it is too so, to'. state that the public psychology has changed, Wednesday's action was a step in. th right direction. Perhaps the needed spark to start the latent buying power will, be a Dow TheoI7 bull market signal. That signal will be given when the industrials q rails panetrate the July highs of 187.66 and 51.92. Continue to repeat our thought that recent decline from the July highs was a correction of the sharp, twenty-SiX point rally from the MEW lows and that the July highs will eventually be penetrated. EDMUND W. TABELL September 17, 1947 SHIELDS 8 COMPANY Closings Dow-Jones Industrials Dow-Jones Rails Dow-Jones 65-8tock l78.7.3 48.84 64.08 The opinions llI.pressed in this leHer ere the penel Interpretation of c.herb by Mr. Edmund W. Tebel! end are not presented u the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 22, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 22, 1947
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Technical Market Action A number of issues in our recommended list bavelDeen shong rather interesting market action. Electric Power &Light has recently turned in a much better market performance than the average utility issue. At MonGay IS closiJrg of 18 3/4, the stock ill only a point away from its February high of 19 3/4. The rally from the May low of 11 1/4 has been quite sharp percentagewise. However, ability to penetrate the February high would be quite encouraging from a technical point of view and would indicate an uptrend with a longer term objective of 30-35. The first near term reSistance would be at the 22-23 level. Continued retention of Electric Power &Light is advised. Mullins Manufacturing was recommended for purchase at 19 3/4 in our letter of August 11th. The stock has moved ahead nicely and reached a new high at 24 last week. It closed at 24 on Monday. The stock has definitely broken out of the long 20-15 accumulation range and appears headed for an ultimate objective of 36-39. Earnings on this household and automotive equipment company totalled 4.07 for the first six months of 1947. It appears to be in an excellent technical position. last week Rayonier was originally recommended at at 28 174. Monday's close was 277/8. 19 5/8. A This issue nhewbhriogkhenwaos urteaocfhed the long 18-26 range of the past eleven months and appears to le headed for an ultimate objective above 40. First minor resistance is at the 32-33 level. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 were 3.24. Vfueeling Steel reached new high territory at 46 3/4 last week. Monday's close ,was 46 1/4. This is the first of the larger steel companies to bre out of the long trading range in which mot of the steel company issues have held for the past twelve months. Some of the smaller steel companies, such as Detroit Steel, Follansbee and Granite City, recently reachec new high territory. This technical action of the smaller units in this industry may presage better market action by the larger companies. ffueeling Steel appears to be particularly attractive with an indicated longer term objective of above 80. The nearer term objective, from a technical viewpoint, is 60-64. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 were 8.57 a share. Sharon Steel is also one of our recommended steel issues. It has not yet penetrated the long 24-36 trading range but, at Monday's close of 35, was quite close to an upside penetration. Such a penetration WOUld, technically, indicate substantially higher levels. Sharon earned 5.48 for the first six months of 1947. Youngstown Sheet & Tube is another recommended steel issue that has been showing excellent market action. At Monday's close of 70, the stock was only 2 1/2 points away from the 1947 high of 72 1/2,while Bethlehem Steel was 11 1/2 points below its compo.rable high,and U. S. Steel was 8 1/4 points away. Ability to reach 73 would be of great technical importance. This issue shows the best technical action of any of the larger steel companies. Earnings for the first six months of 1947 were 8.14 a common share. United Aircraft was recommended for purchase at 20 1/8 in our letter of September 4th as a shorter term speculation. The stock has since broken out of the long 21-17 trading range to reach a high of 23 1/2 last week. Technical indications point to an objective in the 27-30 area for the nearer term. Another interesting shorter term speculation is International Paper. This stock has not been recommentled previously in-tnis-letter but its recent action has been good and purchase is recommended for a trading turn. On Monday. the stock broke out of the long 46-50 trading area to reach a high of 51 l/4'j. The 1next upside objective appears to be 56l. Standard 4 pfd is another of our recommended issues that has recently shown better market action. The stock has built up a substantial potential base pattern in the 25-29 area An upside penetration to 30 wcUJ.d indicate 33-37. Monday's high was 287/8 and the c10se 28 1/4. The market, so far, has failed to follow through ()n last Wednesday 's sharp rally on increased transactions. However, volume indications on the sell-off are favorable and believe the odds still favor the supposition that the lows of the correction were made at the early September lows of 174.02 and 46.91. These points SDd the July hiShs 'of 187..66-iuld 51.92 are the important figures to watch. A downside penetration would indicate slightly lower levels to possibly 172-171 and 45 before the advance is resumed, bUt not change the indications of ultimately much higher levels. An upside penetrao10n would signify a new bull market move. Strongly favor the latter possibility. EDMUND Ii. TABELL 11Ie opinions eIpressed in this lotter ore the P6m!DDS'pc!tt\!lgMPlUftGrts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! and ore not presented as the opinions of Shields & Compo!lny

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 24, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 24, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 24, 1947
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Technical Market Action Regnrdless of the general ,market, individual issues continue to show good technical action. Among our recommended issues, Electric Power & Light. Borg Vinrner, Wheeling Steel, Mullins Man11fc.cturing, United Aircraft, International Paper, Youngstovm Sheet & Tube, Sto..'lda!'d Gos 4 pfd., i!..9Y. Mannfa.cturing and Sharon Steel, are all holding near to recent-highs and appear ready to move ahead on any renewed buying interest in the general market. A number of other recommeded issues have held in trnding ranges for the last two months and 1V0uld seemingy indicate substantial moves in the event that the range was penetrated. Chrysler, for example, has held above the 56 level on four reaction periods since early August. A downside penetration would indicate a further dip to the 52-48 area. On the upside, Chrysler has met resistanCe at 60. Ability to reach 61 uould give a technical indication of a rally to the 67-70 range. At Wednesday's clofte of 59, the stock was a shade nearer on upside signal. Another recommended issue with a similar pattern is Illinois Central. The stoCk bas held in the 27-25 ranGe for about two months. An upside penetration to 28 would indicate 32-34 while a downside penetration to 24 would indicate 22-20. It might be pointed out that whle an upside indication will be bullish, a downside penetrntion will be equally bearish. That is true. But a number of other factors favor the possibilit,r of an upside breakout. A number of upSide breakouts have already occurred even in the face of general market irregularity. International Paper is a case in pOint. Also in cases where a minor top has been built up, the downside indic&tions have already been just about reached. – This is particularly true in the case of the oils. Standard Oil of New JerseY has built up a top that indi- cated 73-71 on the downside. A low of 72 5/8 was reached on Tuesday. Gulf Oil indicated a dip to 67-66. The low on Tuesday was 66. In addition, Standard of New Jersey has a strong support level at 72-71 nnd Gulf Oil has a similar support level at 66. Both of these issues appear attractive on present,weakness for longer term holding. ./ Flednesdnyl s market managed to regain a portion of Tuesday's losses and both averages closed fractionally higher on the day. At the lows of the day of 175.27 and 47.38, both averages held above the September 9th lows of 174.02 and 46.91. Thus the current stalemate continues and the rally of last week appears to be another false start. The minor trend continues up as long as the September lows hold. A penetration of last week's hiGhS of 179.37 and 49.02 would signal the intermediate trend as up nnd a penetration of the July hiQhs of 187.66 and 51.92 would indicate a new major uptrend. A downside penetration of 174.02 and 46.91 would indicate a further downtrend to 172-171 and 45. Considering the newspaper headlines, the market acts well. As stated previously, believe the wide trading range of the past twelve months has been a period of slow re-accumulation with stocks passing into stronger hands. Believe that the odds favor the lows of September 9th being the lows of the correctionary decline. Even if these lows are penetrated, believe the area between 174 and 171 to be a buying area. Believe the eventual outcome will be substantially higher prices for selected issues. As to the timing, I repeat below the last paragraph of the September 15th letter – \'l'hen will a sharp upward move start The answer to that depends on the intangible element of public psychology. The stage is all set for a sharp rise. The necessary technical patterns and base formations have already been built up. A large short interest and plent,r of potential buying power is also present. Many stocks are selling at ridiculously low prices compared with present earnings. The background is inflationary. '!he one miSSing element is e. public willing to buy securities. Just what is needed to start the latant buying power is not known, but after over a year of bearishness it would seem reasonable to expect a neerb,r change in the present mood of discouragement and fear. ' September 24, 1947 EDMUND Vi. TABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY , The opiniolU elpressed in this letter 6r6 the personal interpretation of chl/Jlrts by Mr. Edmund W. Tabel! and are not presented as the opInions of Shields & Company. '.,….- t.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 26, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 26, 1947
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Technical Market Action In spi t6 of a dragging down markE.t, individual issues continue to move against the trend. In our,recommended group, for example, in the last two des, Borg Warner, International Paper and Stl1dard Gr,s 4 pfd. reached new high territory for the move. Others are holding close to the highs. , On the other hand, most of the market continues in a slow downdrift wi th the Dow-Jones industrial r.verage on Fride.y ct a new low closing for the move at 174.86. The previous low was 175.14 on September 8th. The rail average, howeVer, at the closing of 47.43 held above the comparable low of 47.14. Pso, the intra-day lows of 174.42 and 47.30 were above the Ssptember lows of 174.02 ll1ld 46.91. On ten of the last fifteen trading Gays the intra-day lows on the industrial average has met support rouby at the 175-174 level. The low of September 8th was 174.79, September 9th was 174.02, September 10th was 174.70, September 11th was 175.31, September 12th was 174.9, September 15th was 174.82, September 16th was 174.73, September 24th was 175.27, S6ptember 25th was 174.92 ant Friday's low was 174.42. On all of thE-se testings, volume was 10'11. This was also true on the new low closing of the industrials on Friday when volume was only 640,000 shares. The 175-174 level appears to be a pretty good support point end the volume indications and action of individual issues hardly point to a severe decline from present levels. Even a penetrtion of 174 should not result in much more than moderately lower levels to possibly 172-171 in the industrials and 45-44 in'the rails. A number of issues appear to be at or close to buying levels. As mentioned in our last letter, believe Standard Oil of New Jersey attractive in the 73-71 area end Gulf Oil attractive around 66. Friday's closings were 72 7/8 ElIld 66 3/4. Citi eS Servj ce, Vlhich closetl at 36 on Friday, v/Culd appear to be a purchase in the 35-34 area. Union Carbide reaches a very strong support level in the 101-97 area. Its close on Friday was 101. Union Pacific with a Friday close of 135 is also in the 135-130 support area. All of,the above issues are in our recommended lists. Two other issues, both very speculative, are also begiJJtl.ingtobuild up interesting patterns. They are American Car & Foundry and Schenley. American Car & Foundry reaChed a low of 36 in May and rallied back to 52 in July. k minor top has been built up in the 52-49 area whih suggests a dip to 42. Friday's close was 44. Would appear to be an attractive speculation around 42 as a substantial longer term base pattern has been built up. Schenley dropped from a high of 100 in 1946 to a low of 23 1/2 this year. A substantial bas pattern has been built up in the 24-32 area. The base area was recently penetrated on the upsine and the stock rallied to 37. It has since declined and Friday's close was 331/4. Would consider the 33-31 area a buying zone for an intermediate term rally into the 40-50 area. The rails have acted relatively better than the industrials during the correctionary decline of the past tv.o months. It could 'well be that this group would be the leaders of the next rally. On excellent buying signal, from a technical point of view, would be the ability of .htchison, Topeka & Santa Fe to reach 5. It \'Ioule'. break an important dovmtrend line .t thF.t point and possibly signal an uptrend in the rails before the rail ,average does so. No change in our opinion that the market is in a longer term accumula- tion area and should be bought on any aPFToach to the 170-160 area, which has been our oft rEpeated buying zone of the past twelve months. For the shorter term, believe the 175-174 area should hold but if it does not, believe the decline should hold in the 172-171 zone EDMUND W. TABELL SHIELDS & COIIPANY September 26, 1947 Closings Dow-Jones Industrials 174.86 Dow-Jones Rails 47.43 Dow-Jones 65-Stock 62.69 The opinion. expressed in this I.tter ere the personal ite'p,..t.tion of charts by Mr. Edmund W. label! and ate not presented a, the opinions of Shields & Company.

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Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1947

Tabell’s Market Letter – September 29, 1947

Tabell's Market Letter - September 29, 1947
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Technical Market Action Youngstown Sheet & Tube continues to show excellent technical market action and, at Mondayls closing of 70 3/4, is selling above U. S. Steel which closed at 70. Both stocks are in our list of recommended issues with Youngstown originally recommended in 62-60 buying rcnge while U.S.Steel was orttinall1 recommended in the 67-64 range. With both stocks selling at approximately the J same price and paying the same dividend, it seems unnecessary to keep both issues in the list. While'U.S.Steel indictes a higher price level over the loriger term, believe it will be outpaced Youngstown. Therefore, we are dropping U.S.Steel from our list of recommended issues and in the hibher priced steel group, concentrating on Youngstown Sheet & ,Tube. Have previously suggested svlitching Be'thlehem Steel into Youngstown. Other steel issues vmich we still recommend holding for substantially higher levels are Jones & Laughlin, Sharon Steel and Wheeling Steel. Since the July highs, a number of issues have been holding in broad trading ranGes, Usualy a penetration out of the range indicates a sizeable near term move in the direction of the penetration. Three of our recommended issues have moved out of this pe 9f formation on the upside and are continuing their excellent technical action, namely, Borg Warner which equalled its previous high of 52 1/4 on Mond, and Internationel Paper and Standard Gas' fd. both of vmich reached new highs for the move at 54 1/4 and 30 1 2. Nearer term price objectives for these issues are 57 for Borg llarner, 59-61 for International Paper and 33-37 for Standard Gas 4 pfd. Listed below arc a number of other issues that have built up a similar t.1Pe formation. The upside and downside penetrations are listed together with price objectives for both the up and down',. Based on the general market action and the fact that penetrations so far have been on . the upside, lead,to the expectation that ultimate breakout will be on the upside. The indicated price levels are for the shorter term and are not to be confused Vlith longer term objectives. Issues marked with an asterisk are in our recommended list. Last Upside IJauld Downside Would Sale Penetrat;!,on Indicate Penetration Indicate Alleghany, pfd. 37! American Smelting 59 7/B Atchison, Topeka & S.F. 82t Case (J.I.) 3B 1/2 Chrysler 5B 1/2 DuPont lBB Illin6is Central 261/4 Jones &Laughlin 323/4 Southern Pacific 431/4 Southern Railw 37 1/2 Youngstown Sheet & Tube 70 3/4 40 65 85 41 61 193 28 35 45 41 71 44-46 72-74 100-105 44-46 66-71 202 32-35 41 50-55 44-47 77-7B 34 57 79 36 56 lB6 24 30 40 35 64 27 53-49 75 33 52-48 lSi 22-20 30-2B 37 32 58 A number of other issues in our recommended list have seemingly had a sufficient correction of their advance from the May lows and would appear to be at or close to a buying range. In this group, among others, are American Cyanamid (44), Colorado Fuel & Iron (14 5/B), General Railway Signal (251/2) National Supply (18), Pepsi-Cola (2B 3/4), Worthington PUmp (56), and Westinghouse Electric (27). The market reversed its usual Monday procedure of the last two months closing 99 cents higher. Once again the industrial average held at the 174-175 support area and pulled away. The rail average also closed 29 cents higher. In- dicatiGDS still point to the 175-174 area as a strong support level, but even if this support were broken would expect only moderately lower levels to possibly the 172-170 area. The first indication of a change of trend would be the abilit.1 of the averages to penetrate 179.37 and 49.02. The next objectives would be the July high of lB7.66 and 51.92. Believe the wide trading range of the last year, between roughly 187 and 161, has been a period of accumulation and that the highs of July will be ultimately penetrated. The timing depends on when the public begins to realize that stocks are one of the few forms of property that are still selling at pre-war bargain levels. EDMUND IV. '1'ABELL SHIELDS & COMPANY The opinions 8J1pressed in this IlI!itter ere the personal interpr.tation of cham by Mr. Edmund W. TabeUand are not presented as the opinionl of Shields & Company. I L

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